Sunday, July 24, 2016

Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.

Quotes from the great statistician George E.P. Box.
One important idea is that science is a means whereby learning is achieved, not by mere theoretical speculation on the one hand, nor by the undirected accumulation of practical facts on the other, but rather by a motivated iteration between theory and practice.
- Science and Statistics (1976), Page 791


Since all models are wrong the scientist cannot obtain a "correct" one by excessive elaboration. On the contrary following William of Occam he should seek an economical description of natural phenomena. Just as the ability to devise simple but evocative models is the signature of the great scientist so overelaboration and overparameterization is often the mark of mediocrity.
- Science and Statistics (1976), Page 792


The researcher hoping to break new ground in the theory of experimental design should involve himself in the design of actual experiments. The investigator who hopes to revolutionize decision theory should observe and take part in the making of important decisions.
- Science and Statistics (1976), Page 792


For the theory-practice iteration to work, the scientist must be, as it were, mentally ambidextrous; fascinated equally on the one hand by possible meanings, theories, and tentative models to be induced from data and the practical reality of the real world, and on the other with the factual implications deducible from tentative theories, models and hypotheses.
- Science and Statistics (1976), Page 792


Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.
- Empirical Model-Building and Response Surfaces (1987), Page 424

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