Thursday, February 12, 2026

Vanish'd is the feverish dream of life



































Click to enlarge.

The gravestone of the chartist leader Samuel Holberry, "who at the early age of 27 died in York Castle, after suffering an imprisonment of 2 years and 3 months, June 21st 1842, for advocating what to him appeared to be the true interest of the people of England."

This is followed by a verse.

Vanish'd is the feverish dream of life,
The rich and poor find no distinction here,
The great and lowly end their care and strife,
The well beloved may have affections tear.
But at the last, the oppressor and the slave,
Shall equal stand before the bar of God,
Of him, who life, and hope, and freedom gave,
To all who thro' this vale of tears have trod.
Let none then murmur 'gainst the wise decree
That open'd the door, and set the captive free.

Seemingly much of the Romantic Era.  Some slight echoes of Wordsworth.

The Wanderer from The Exeter Anthology

The Wanderer

Always the one alone longs for mercy,
the Maker’s mildness, though, troubled in mind,
across the ocean-ways he has long been forced
to stir with his hands the frost-cold sea,
and walk in exile’s paths. Wyrd is fully fixed!(1)
Thus spoke the Wanderer, mindful of troubles,
of cruel slaughters and the fall of dear kinsmen:(2)
“Often alone, every first light of dawn,
I have had to speak my sorrows. There is no one living
to whom I would dare to reveal clearly 
my deepest thoughts. I know it is true
that it is in the lordly nature of a nobleman
to closely bind his spirit’s coffer,
hold his treasure-hoard, whatever he may think.
The weary mind cannot withstand wyrd
the troubled heart can offer no help,
and so those eager for fame often bind fast
in their breast-coffers a sorrowing soul,
just as I have had to take my own heart —
often wretched, cut off from my homeland, 
far from dear kinsmen — and bind it in fetters,
ever since long ago I hid my gold-giving friend
in the darkness of earth, and went wretched,
winter-sad, over the binding waves,
sought, hall-sick, a treasure-giver, 
wherever I might find, far or near,
someone in a meadhall who knew of my people,
or who’d want to comfort me, friendless,
accustom me to joy. He who has come to know
how cruel a companion is sorrow 
to one who has few dear protectors, will understand this:
the path of exile claims him, not patterned gold,
a frost-bound spirit, not the solace of earth.
He remembers hall-holders and treasure-taking,
how in his youth his gold-giving lord 
accustomed him to the feast—that joy all fades.
And so he who has long been forced to forego
his dear lord’s beloved words of counsel will understand:
when sorrow and sleep both together
often bind up the wretched exile, 
it seems in his mind that he clasps and kisses
his lord of men, and on his knee lays
hands and head, as he sometimes long ago
in earlier days enjoyed the gift-throne.(3)
But when the friendless man awakens again 
and sees before him the fallow waves,
seabirds bathing, spreading their feathers,
frost falling and snow, mingled with hail,
then the heart’s wounds are that much heavier,
pain after pleasure. Sorrow is renewed 
when the mind flies out to the memory of kinsmen;(4)
he greets them with great joy, greedily surveys
hall-companions — they always swim away;
the floating spirits bring too few
well-known voices. Cares are renewed 
for one who must send, over and over,
a weary heart across the binding of the waves.(5)
And so I cannot imagine for all this world
why my spirit should not grow dark
when I think through all this life of men, 
how they suddenly gave up the hall-floor,
mighty warrior tribes. Thus this middle-earth
droops and decays one day at a time;
and so a man cannot become wise, before he has weathered
his share of winters in this world. A wise man must be patient, 
neither too hot-hearted nor too hasty with words,
nor too weak in war nor too unwise in thoughts,
neither fearful nor fawning, nor too greedy for wealth,
never eager for boasting before he truly understands;
a man must wait, when he makes a boast, 
until the brave spirit understands truly
whither the thoughts of his heart will turn.
The wise man must realize how ghostly it will be
when all the wealth of this world stands waste,
as now here and there throughout this middle-earth 
walls stand blasted by wind,
beaten by frost, the buildings crumbling.
The wine halls topple, their rulers lie
deprived of all joys; the proud old troops
all fell by the wall. War carried off some, 
sent them on the way, one a bird carried off
over the high seas, one the gray wolf
shared with death—and one a sad-faced man
hid in an earthen grave. The ancient
ruler of men thus wrecked this enclosure, 
until the old works of giants stood empty,
without the sounds of their former citizens.(6)
He who deeply considers, with wise thoughts,
this foundation and this dark life,
old in spirit, often remembers 
so many ancient slaughters, and says these words:
‘Where have the horses gone? where are the riders? where is the giver of gold?
Where are the seats of the feast? where are the joys of the hall?
O the bright cup! O the brave warrior!
O the glory of princes! How the time passed away, 
slipped into nightfall as if it had never been!’
There still stands in the path of the dear warriors
a wall wondrously high, with serpentine stains.
A torrent of spears took away the warriors,
bloodthirsty weapons, wyrd the mighty, 
and the storms batter the stone walls,
frost falling binds up the earth,
the chaos of winter, when blackness comes,
night’s shadow looms, sends down from the north
harsh hailstones in hatred of men.
All is toilsome in the earthly kingdom,
the working of wyrd changes the world under heaven.
Here wealth is fleeting, here friends are fleeting,
here man is fleeting, here woman is fleeting,
all the security of this earth will stand empty.”
So said the wise one in his mind, sitting apart in meditation.
He is good who keeps his word,(7) and the man who never too quickly
shows the anger in his breast, unless he already knows the remedy,
how a nobleman can bravely bring it about. It will be well for one who seeks mercy, consolation from the Father in heaven, where for us all stability stands. 


source: the Exeter Book 
translation: R. M. Liuzza

1 Wyrd is the Old English word for Fate, a powerful but not quite personified force. It is related to the verb weorthan, meaning roughly ‘to occur’; it may be useful to think of wyrd as ‘what happens’, usually in a negative sense. In a poem so preoccupied with puzzling over the nature and meaning of fate, it seemed appropriate to leave the word untranslated.
2 The Exeter Book manuscript in which the poem survives does not have quotation marks, or clear indications of where one speech begins and ends in this poem; we are not sure whether lines 1-5 are spoken by the same character that speaks the following lines, or whether they are the narrator’s opinion on the general situation of the Wanderer.
3 The description seems to be some sort of ceremony of loyalty, charged with intense regret and longing.
4 Or “when the memory of kinsmen flies through the mind.”
5 The grammar and reference of this intense, almost hallucinatory scene is not entirely clear; the translation reflects one commonly-proposed reading.
6 Ruined buildings are called ‘the work of giants’ (enta geweorc) in several places in OE literature.
7 Or ‘keeps faith’. These last lines offer an answer to the Wanderer’s unresolved melancholia – the wisdom of self-control and the hope of Christian salvation.

History

 

An Insight

 

And all established enterprises and institutions struggle with a high rate of change, no matter what the source.

From BRO-BOTS ☙ Thursday, February 12, 2026 ☙ C&C NEWS by Jeff Childers in his substack Covid & Coffee.  

Childers is a practicing attorney and I do not know how he manages to publish a daily news update which connects dots from obscure sources to articulate a plausible interpretation of what is going on.  He is determinedly upbeat but sees warts and all.  And his insights are generally superior to most sources I follow.  

I have been following this story over the past week.  The case study is KPMG, one of the Big Four Accounting firms.  My career was in management consulting, first with Arthur Young in the Big Eight days, then as a partner at merged Ernst & Young, then later with demergered Cap Gemini Ernst & Young. 

I came up as a strategy consultant and then deep into technology once I started managing business units.  I am deeply familiar with the whole issue of billing by the hour.  For easily half my career, we had various strategies to move away from hourly billing.  As Childers points out, hourly billing has a certain resiliency for all sorts of reasons.  Many of which have to do with who pays the risk premium for highly complex, contingent and difficult work.

From today's C&C.

Pay attention! It’s happening. Late last week, the Financial Times quietly reported “KPMG pressed its auditor to pass on AI cost savings.” Is the billable hour on its last legs?

The Financial Times reported that KPMG— one of the world’s Big Four accounting firms— bullied its own auditor into a 14% fee cut. Their argument was elegant in its simplicity: if your AI is doing the work, your people shouldn’t be billing for it. KPMG’s hapless auditor, Grant Thornton, tried to kick but quickly folded like a WalMart lawn chair, dropping its auditing fee from $416,000 to $357,000.

And now every CFO on Earth is reaching for a calculator.

Here’s the dark comedy. Grant Thornton’s UK audit leader bragged in a December blog post that AI was making their work “faster and smarter.” KPMG took note, and immediately asked why it was still paying the slower-and-dumber price. This is why lawyers tell their clients to stop posting on social media. The marketing department just became the billing department’s worst enemy.

As a lawyer who bills by the hour —and I suspect many of you work in professions that do the same— I can assure everyone that this story sent a terrifying chill racing through the spines of every white-collar professional who’s been out there cheerfully babbling about AI adoption at industry conferences.

The billable hour has survived the fax machine, personal computers, email, electronic filing, spreadsheets, and the entire internet. The billable hour has the survival instincts of a post-apocalyptic cockroach and the institutional momentum of a Senate tradition. But AI might finally be the dinosaur killer, and KPMG just showed everyone exactly how the asteroid hits: your client reads your own press release and demands a discount.

[snip]

The billable hour won’t die overnight. But it just got a terminal diagnosis. Every professional services firm that’s spent the last two years bragging about AI efficiency is now staring at the same problem: you can’t brag to your clients you’re faster and also charge them for the same number of hours. As they say at KPMG, it doesn’t add up. Somewhere in a law firm right now, a partner is quietly deleting a LinkedIn post about how AI is “transforming their practice.” Smart move.

The first rule of AI efficiency fight club is: you never talk about AI efficiency.

It reminds me of an incident in my firm in the late 1990s, maybe early 2000s.  I was the Asia Pacific partner for a global account where we were doing work for many subsidiaries all across the world.  I was on a global account call late one night (perhaps the most significant drawback to being based in Australia, you are on the short end of the timezones stick.) 

We had a new global initiative, establishing an Accelerated Development Center in India.  Client teams in the client country would do the needs and specifications development with the client and then the coding would be done in India.  Basically a labor cost arbitrage strategy.

The head of the ADC was on the call to make a pitch for the ADC services to the assembled global account partners.  At some point in her presentation, the ADC leader enthusiastically declared something along the lines of:

ADC Leader:  We have done multiple projects and trials and we have found we can reduce project costs by a third.

 To which our North American account leader responded by asking:

NA Account Leader:  Next week, I am submitting a proposal to the client for a $6 million project.  Does that mean that I can use the ADC and reduce the cost to $4 million?

What a lesson in being careful of what you claim.  The verbal backpedalling was spectacular.  

The ADC was an advance in efficiency.  It had value, most of which we shared with clients.  But never believe your own marketing.  Big complex projects are - big and complex.  Don't use rules of thumb (minimum of one third reduction) unless you are willing to stake your financial health on them.

Will AI create spectacular efficiencies?  I imagine so.  There will be some rough patches.  Systemic problems will be discovered.  Are the big Law and Accounting firms ready?  Probably not.  AI puts a lot of law and accounting within DIY reach for many firms.  And regardless of that, as Childers points out, if AI is providing dramatic improvements in efficiency, the competitive market will mean that most of that benefit will not go to the bottom line of the Accounting firm but to the client.  That's just the way of the market.

Technology isn't really the issue, its the rate of change.  And all established enterprises and institutions struggle with a high rate of change, no matter what the source.

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 

Data Talks

 

Two fundamental and consequential trends moving together without much discussion

Two nuggets of information.  Both from the same side of the political aisle.  I suspect them to be directionally correct though the absolute numbers may have a material margin of error.  

First. 

And then

I haven't seen anyone putting these two trend lines together.   There is a lot of noise in the economic system right now with government policy changes, agency changes, changes in regulations, the year long focus on tariffs, the prospects of AI, reshoring of manufacturing, reshoring of investments, etc.

Against the expectations of mainstream establishment economists, the American economy seems to be doing well.  Productivity is up dramatically, capital markets are booming.  Labor force participation rates and unemplyment rates are only stable but that in itself is a bit of an achievement.  

Those two X posts highlight two fairly fundamental trends which are policy driven, are drags on the economy in the short term and are likely spurs to productivity growth in the long term.  

The new administration immediately launched two broad policies, one explicit, the other more obliquely.

The explicit policy was to close the border to illegal immigration.  And what a huge success.  Cheap and less regulated labor that can be badly exploited went to zero in three months to the long term benefit of the bottom quintile of the American labor force, those least skilled.  Reduction in cheap foreign labor supply is disruptive but ultimately increases the demand for American labor and is an incentive to improve the capital investment in labor.  

We are seeing that policy consequence in hourly wages rising.  

The less explicit policy has to do with government headcount.  During the Biden administration, an increasing percentage of the labor force was sourced to government employment.  The Trump administration came in with a bunch of policies which ultimately drive a reallocation of labor away from government to the private sector where productivity is always higher.

Some of those policies were explicit - close the Department of Education and early retirement programs for example.

Some were indirect.  Other policies objectives which indirectly led to reductions in headcount.  The restructuring of the CDC for example or the massive turnover at the Department of Justice as the change from pursuit of DEI and Woke to the pursuit of criminal justice entailed massive resignations.  

Whatever the actual absolute numbers turn out to be, these two tweets are indicative of the consequences of the first year of policies.  Since many of the policies have been challenged with lawfare in court and therefore have been delayed in impact or otherwise have so far only been partially implemented, I suspect that in year two we will see an acceleration.  The administration has usually eventually won its court cases as they work their way up the legal chain.  

So the headlines it seems to me is that we have had at least a 1% reduction in the real (legal and illegal) labor force.  2.5 million deported (self-deported and ICE deported) even when the whole effort was being ramped up and still being challenged in court.  I suspect we will see even larger numbers this year.  Yet further reductions in illegal labor and a consequent boost to demand for labor from the bottom quintile of American workers.  A demand which has all sorts of potential beneficial impacts on a variety of other social welfare measures.

And the second headline is that we are now growing private sector payrolls and reducing government payrolls, switching labor from low productivity employment to high productivity employment.

And these numbers are really mostly a product of only the past six to nine months given the time required to implement them and fight the delaying tactics in courts.  

A material reduction in the illegal labor pool and a material reduction in low productivity employment (government) and increase in higher productivity employment are huge fundamentals individually and especially when they are happening in tandem.

This is all tremendously disruptive for the individuals involved (illegals departing, Americans reentering the labor market, changing jobs, changing careers, etc.) and for businesses employing people.  But those changes are likely to help drive some very material increases in long term productivity with the associated income and wealth accumulation for all Americans.

We are beginning to see the numbers now but I am not seeing much discussion about those two trends in tandem.  That is surprising to me given how consequential they are to the longer term welfare of all Americans. 

Polar Night, View of Magdalene Bay, Spitzbergen, 1925 by Georg Macco

Polar Night, View of Magdalene Bay, Spitzbergen, 1925 by Georg Macco (Germany, 1863-1933)
















Click to enlarge.