Thursday, April 30, 2026

History

 

An Insight

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

Data Talks

 

Path in Spring, 1924 by Achille Lauge

Path in Spring, 1924 by Achille Lauge (France, 1861-1944)



















Click to enlarge.

Wednesday, April 29, 2026

History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 

Data Talks

 

A Midsummer Night's Dream by Emilio Freixas

A Midsummer Night's Dream by Emilio Freixas (Spain, 1899-1976)
































Click to enlarge.

Tuesday, April 28, 2026

History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 

Data Talks

 

Monday, April 27, 2026

History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 

Data Talks

 

Life can be improbably weird sometimes.

Seems odd to me.  

The alleged shooter attempting to assassinate President Trump Saturday night is Cole Tomas Allen, a young black man from California with degrees in Mechanical Engineering and Computer Science who is described by neighbors as being "on the spectrum."  He apparently is from a solidly upper middle class family and has no criminal history.

Cole Tomas Allen  - Black, upper middle class, 31 years old Millennial, no criminal history.  Possibly mildly autistic.  First time crime - attempted assassination of President Trump.  

Just this past December, 2025, there was another arrest, this time for the five-year old mystery of who planted the pipe bombs outside the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and Republican National Committee (RNC) headquarters on January 6, 2021.  

The suspect was Brian Cole, Jr.  

Brian Cole, Jr.  - Black, upper middle class, 30 years old Millennial, no criminal history.  Claimed to be autistic.  First time crime - planting pipe bombs just prior to Congress's certification of President Trump's loss in 2020.  

No conspiracy theory here, just the statistical improbability that there should be two Millennial, black, upper middle class, mildly autistic men named Cole who should choose to commit a first time crime and that that crime should be against President Trump.

Life can be improbably improbable sometimes.

The Island, 2003 by Rick Amor

The Island, 2003 by Rick Amor (Australia, 1948 - ) 




























Click to enlarge.

Sunday, April 26, 2026

The top 10% of the most prolific elite can be credited with 50% of all contributions.

From Age and outstanding achievement: What do we know after a century of research? by Dean Keith Simonton.

A small percentage of workers is responsible for the bulk of the work...the top 10% of the most prolific elite can be credited with 50% of all contributions, whereas the bottom 50% of least productive workers can claim only 15%...the most productive contributor is about 100 times more prolific than the least.
 

History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 

Data Talks

 

Gallery of Views of Ancient Rome, 1758 by Giovanni Paolo Panini

Gallery of Views of Ancient Rome, 1758 by Giovanni Paolo Panini (Italy, 1691-1765)



















Click to enlarge.

Gemini versus the New York Times

There was another attempt on President Trump's life yesterday evening.  I became aware of it around 11pm through Instapundit, then X and then various news accounts.  I visited The New York Times to get their reporting which was fragmented and being covered by multiple reporters.  By midnight, the name of the perpetrator had been known, Cole Tomas Allen, 31, of Torrance, California.  

This morning at 6:30am, I revisit the various news sites to come up to speed.  There isn't much more than there was last night.  In the Times, there are at least nine reporters working the story with multiple updates, each with fragments but not a clear overall summary and status.  The different accounts are filled more with color commentary, how people felt, setting the scene, etc. rather than factual reporting.  Filler.  

It occurred to me to ask Gemini, "What is currently known about Cole Tomas Allen, 31, of Torrance, California?"  CTA being the shooter.  

Cole Tomas Allen, 31, of Torrance, California, is currently in federal custody following an assassination attempt at the White House Correspondents' Dinner on the evening of Saturday, April 25, 2026.   

The Incident

At approximately 8:30 PM, while guests were being served dinner at the Washington Hilton, Allen allegedly attempted to breach a security checkpoint "right outside the ballroom" where President Donald Trump, First Lady Melania Trump, and Vice President JD Vance were in attendance.

The Attack: Armed with multiple weapons—reportedly including a shotgun, a handgun, and several knives—Allen allegedly opened fire. 
 
Casualties: One U.S. Secret Service agent was shot at close range but was saved by a bullet-proof vest. No other injuries were reported among the 2,500 high-profile guests. 
 
Arrest: Allen was subdued by Secret Service agents and is currently at Howard University Hospital for treatment of unspecified injuries before his expected arraignment on Monday. 
 

Background and Career

Public records and social media profiles paint a picture of a highly educated professional with no prior public criminal history:

Education: He is a graduate of the California Institute of Technology (Caltech), earning a degree in Mechanical Engineering in 2017. He recently completed a Master’s in Computer Science from California State University, Dominguez Hills in 2025. 
 
Profession: He was most recently a part-time teacher and tutor for C2 Education in Torrance, where he was named "Teacher of the Month" in December 2024. He also worked as an independent game developer and formerly held a research fellowship at NASA. 
 
Personal Interests: His LinkedIn profile reportedly described him as a "teacher by birth" and listed "science and technology" as his primary causes. In college, he was involved in a Christian student fellowship and a robotics team. 
 

Legal Status

U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro has announced that Allen will face several initial charges, with more expected:

Assault on a federal officer using a dangerous weapon. 
 
Two counts of using a firearm during a crime of violence. 
 

Authorities currently believe Allen acted as a "lone wolf" and was staying as a guest at the Washington Hilton at the time of the attack. While a specific motive has not yet been established, investigators are currently searching his residence in Torrance and the hotel room he occupied in D.C.

This is a much shorter read, with greater factual density and more comprehensive in scope than anything else I have seen.  I don't see any known facts reported elsewhere not included here.  

An interesting experiment.  I will try this again with other fast breaking stories and see if this is representative of Gemini reporting.  

Saturday, April 25, 2026

History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 

Data Talks

 

Three Bathers, by Joseph Tomanek

Three Bathers, by Joseph Tomanek (Czeck/America, 1889-1974)

























Click to enlarge.

Friday, April 24, 2026

History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 

Data Talks

 

Over the Horizon, 2022 by Billie Rae Busby

Over the Horizon, 2022 by Billie Rae Busby (Canada, 1975 - )






























Click to enlarge.

Thursday, April 23, 2026

History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 

Data Talks

 

Beatrice and Dante rising to the Fifth Heaven by Gustave Doré

Beatrice and Dante rising to the Fifth Heaven by Gustave Doré (France, 1832-1883)


























Click to enlarge.

Wednesday, April 22, 2026

History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 

Data Talks

 

The Lament for Icarus, 1898 by Herbert James Draper

The Lament for Icarus, 1898 by Herbert James Draper (England, 1863-1920)





























Click to enlarge.

Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Rules and Public Trust

From Eight Rules to Regain Public Trust in Academia by Kevin A. Bryan.  

1. Produce and Teach Useful Knowledge
Universities exist to generate and teach useful knowledge. This knowledge is grounded in skeptical inquiry, empirical evidence, and logical deduction. “Useful” includes not only practical applications but also fundamental discoveries that expand our understanding of the world, even if their benefits are long-term.

2. Be Useful to All of Society
Universities are subsidized only if society at large finds them valuable. Research may take time to bear fruit, but its insights should ultimately serve the public good, communicated openly and accessibly, and presented with epistemic humility. Teaching should be done with care and draw on up-to-date research.

3. Attract Talent from All of Society

Useful knowledge can be created by people from any social or economic background. Do not waste talent. Do not select talent based on who knows “how to play the game”. Avoid insular language or norms that deter people from entering research.

4. Neutral, Objective Research Produces Useful Knowledge
Research must be neutral and objective. It is true that everyone has their individual background and preferences; nonetheless, unbiased research is still possible. Tradition, folk knowledge, and storytelling all play an important roles in society, but they are not the purpose of universities. There is no “Western science” or culturally-determined “ways of knowing”. Rather, research is open to all and can be performed identically regardless of background.

5. Hire, Promote, and Cite Based on Knowledge Contribution
Hiring, promotion, and citation must be based on an individual’s contribution to knowledge. Nepotism, group preferences, and adherence to specific “schools of thought” corrupt this process. When advancement is not based on merit, the public rightly questions our integrity and the objectivity of our findings.

6. Keep Personal Views Out of Research and Teaching
A scholar’s personal politics should be invisible in their research and teaching. If a finding is predictable based on the author’s identity or known views, the process has failed. Objectivity is the hallmark of credible science. Academics may hold private beliefs like anyone else, but their academic work must stand apart from them.

7. Research Fraud is Unacceptable
Fraud destroys trust. Misrepresentation of results, selective reporting, or methods designed to publish rather than to discover are also harmful. Proven fraud must bring immediate dismissal, as it violates the core purpose of academia.

8. Scientific Institutions Should Be Apolitical
Universities, journals, and scientific societies must remain non-partisan. Their public statements must be rare, restricted to issues of direct expert consensus, and made only when silence would be a greater threat to their integrity than speaking. Activism sacrifices credibility for influence – or worse yet, sacrifices credibility and influence alike.

To which, Alex Tabarrok would add

9. Grades must be objective and useful discriminators of talent.

With a little reinterpretation, these are just good rules for trust.

But it was also unfamiliar.

A kind of chaotic article from the NYT.  A Year After U.S.A.I.D.’s Death, Fired Workers Find Few Jobs and Much Loss by Elisabeth Bumiller and Eileen Sullivan.  The subheading is People have plowed through savings, cashed out retirement funds and moved in with relatives. Former U.S.A.I.D. workers estimate that less than half have found full-time work.

The core argument for the closing of USAID was that we spent a lot of money to very little measurable effect.  The counter-argument was that it was soft-power and while the benefits could not be measured, the consequences would be catastrophic.  

A year later and the jury is still out.  Even in this sob-story article, they acknowledge:

Others acknowledged that there was bloat and waste in the agency and a need for reform. Much of the $35 billion it managed in 2024 went to Washington-based contractors, not directly to people in need overseas. The success of many projects was hard to measure.

Bumiller and Sullivan are focused on hard the experience has been on the most experienced and highest paid members of USAID management.  I doubt that was quite the argument they intended to make but looking at who they interviewed, the most experienced and highest paid members of USAID management, that it is what they ended up with.  One might assume that those below the top level may have had an easier time finding work based just on what is presented.

It is worth stipulating that all unexpected change can be traumatic on individuals, even if it leads to better things and especially if not.

In the comments there are all the arguments one might expect.  Horrible Trump and Musk.  Useless USAID.  Entitled execs and contractors sponging off the taxes of hard-working Americans.  Money spent with nothing to show for it.  Nobody deserves such hardships.  And on and on.

What struck me was the patent bubble-insularity of Washington.  Something which is well-known but on ready display here.  Time and again, in different words, there is the same regret.  People are sorry they can't continue doing what they enjoyed doing even though people might not have wanted to pay for it and even though there was nothing to show for it.  

The other thing which struck me was more fundamental.  

Nothing being described is unfamiliar to those in the open market.  It was in part traumatic to the USAID employees because they were unfamiliar with the experience of loss and change which everyone else routinely experience.

There is a systems issue which goes by many different names.  In a dynamic environment, systems evolve and adapt.  Some constantly evolve and adapt, making thousands of small adjustments all the time.  Other systems evolve and stabilize.  They cease to adapt until some external event occurs which disrupts everything and forces dramatic and traumatic change.

Some call that punctuated equilibrium.  I like it to geological movement and living on a dynamic plate system.  Do you want the inconvenience of the ground slipping fractions of an inch at a time with thousands of tiny almost unnoticeable quakes or do you want to live in a zone where there is no movement for a century and then there is a massive slip of ten feet.  In both cases, there was always going to be a movement of ten feet.  Do you want it in small incremental but constant changes or in one big event?

The competitive market is like that.  That which cannot continue won't.  Companies are always changing given changes in consumer demand and fancy, changes among competitors, in technology, in supply chains, regulations, etc.  Change is constant and companies have to adapt.  Usually through a thousand small adjustments and occasionally in big events (mergers, closure of a business, etc.)  

In government spheres, where exposure to consequences is more muted and famously, government programs are the closest thing to immortality we can know, there is only the catastrophic change.  Interestingly, in the comments to the article, there are voices arguing that changes was needed, had been needed for decades, but that abolition was the wrong solution.  We should have waited more years without the needed change.  

The stories in the article are perfectly familiar because we all know people who have experienced this sort of thing.  We know many people who have experienced.  Some more than once in their lifetime.  It is tragic and familiar.  

The loss of their livelihoods for the USAID executives was similarly tragic for them.  But it was also unfamiliar.

History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 

Data Talks