History

March shout-out to Magnolias, among the most ancient of flowering trees: up to c.95m yrs old.
They evolved long before bees did & were chiefly pollinated by beetles––thus the tough carpels & petals of their goblet-shaped flowers.
Magnolias bloom in both spring time & deep time. pic.twitter.com/77hA8N6D1g

— Robert Macfarlane (@RobGMacfarlane) March 10, 2024

 

An Insight

yes, but was the "guy on internet" correct?

publication and peer review is not proof. it's just the starting line to "let's take a look at this" and "let's see if it replicates."

the best part of the internet is how well it pokes holes in the ivory tower and holds it to… pic.twitter.com/d7lSaGkvzI

— el gato malo (@boriquagato) March 10, 2024

 

I see wonderful things

Incredibly rare 'Firework Jellyfish' filmed 4,000 ft. underwater pic.twitter.com/xGx3aZf30l

— Historic Vids (@historyinmemes) March 10, 2024

 

Offbeat Humor

Click to enlarge.

Using single methodologies to do univariate analysis of multivariate systems requiring expansive specification curve analysis

From The Definitive Analysis of Observational Studies by John Mandrola.  The subheading is Buckle up for this Study of the Week. It shocked me. You may never read another observational study in the same way.

The original stucy is Grilling the data: application of specification curve analysis to red meat and all-cause mortality by Yumin Wang, et al.  

I observe with some frequency that much of our analysis in academia, in policy, and in random life is often univariate analysis of multivariate systems.  There are many causal elements and we explore only one.  What we find and conclude may be correct to an extent and under particular circumstances but it is in no way usefully true because our comprehension is markedly limited.  

This study takes a different approach.  Instead of taking one method of analysis, it wants to know what we would find if we were to use many methods of analysis.  A very relevant question in the context of the univariate analysis issue.  

Specification curve analysis is similar to a multiverse analysis, meaning it’s a way of defining and implementing all plausible and valid analytic approaches to a research question. This time in nutritional epidemiology.

Take a moment and think about the methods section of a standard association study. Say blueberries and rates of stroke. The authors of such papers will write that we analyzed the data in this way. In other words: one way.

But. But. There are, of course, many choices of ways to analyze the data.

Since most observational studies are not pre-registered, you can imagine a scenario where authors actually did a number of analyses and published the one that yielded an association with a p-value of less than 0.05.

Read the post for the whole picture about their own methodology.  The outcomes?

The results also provide a sobering view of nutritional epidemiology. Of 1200 different analytic ways (specifications) to approach the NHANES data, only 48 yielded significant findings. The vast majority found no significant association.

I would extend this paper beyond nutritional epidemiology. I mean, every time we read an observational study, in any area of bio-medicine, the authors tell us about their analytic method. It’s one method. Not 1200, or a 10 quadrillion.

Now consider the issue of publication bias wherein positive papers get published and null papers not so much.

Take the example of this paper.

There were 40 specifications that yielded a favorable red meat-mortality association and 8 that yielded a negative association. Red meat proponents could publish a positive one; vegetarian proponents could publish a negative one.

Nutritional epidemiology is one of those fields which is hugely multivariate.  Red meat effect on mortality?  What meat?  How much?  What age of the person consuming?  Male or female?  Comorbidities?  How prepared?  What medications being taken?  What time of day consumed?  On and on.  

Multivariate and many ways of studying, many specifications.  

And most of what we do with multivariate systems and many specification approaches is to fall back on a single study methodology using a univariate approach.

No wonder we get so many things wrong.  

What this study suggests, indirectly, is that for our most complex systems (sociology, diet and nutrition, public health, economy, etc.), the research we have been conducting for fifty years and more is underpowered (too small and not random), unsophisticated (univariate instead of multivariate), and unrigorous (single methodology instead of multiple methodologies.)  

Underpowered, unsophisticated, and unrigorous - pretty weak foundations for the coercion and propaganda usually attendant to the cherry picked headlines and biased conclusions reached by the Mandarin Class from the existing studies.

This paper sheds light on just how much greater needs to be the humility of decision makers in the face of complex systems.

And, I would argue, how more deference we ought to pay to the culture and class heuristics which have come down to us through the testing of time.  

Data Talks

IBM Vice Chair Gary Cohn Destroys Biden’s Inflation Narrative, Says Consumers Are ‘Completely Right’

“Inflation has a compounding effect meaning as you look at inflation year-over-year, you’re adding up those numbers. You’re not starting at a zero every year. So if we had 6%… pic.twitter.com/MnuCsYpGci

— Chief Nerd (@TheChiefNerd) March 10, 2024

 

Breakfast with Crab, 1648, by Willem Claesz Heda

Breakfast with Crab, 1648, by Willem Claesz Heda

Click to enlarge.

Walking up and pacing down

From Gaudy Night by Dorothy L. Sayers.  Page 456.

“Please do,” said Lord Saint-George. “I mean, Uncle Peter’s getting the wind up horribly. Gone clean off his oats. Of course I know he’s a fidgety old ass and I’ve been doing my best to soothe the troubled beast and all that, but I’m beginning to think he’s got some excuse. For goodness’ sake, Aunt Harriet, do something about it. I can’t afford to have a valuable uncle destroyed under my eyes. He’s getting like the Lord of Burleigh, you know-walking up and pacing down and so on-and the responsibility is very wearing.”

From a Tennyson poem.

The Lord of Burleigh

Alfred Tennyson

In her ear he whispers gaily,

    ‘If my heart by signs can tell,

Maiden, I have watch’d thee daily,

    And I think thou lov’st me well’.

She replies, in accents fainter,

    ‘There is none I love like thee’.

He is but a landscape-painter,

    And a village maiden she.

He to lips, that fondly falter,

    Presses his without reproof:

Leads her to the village altar,

    And they leave her father’s roof.

‘I can make no marriage present;

    Little can I give my wife.

Love will make our cottage pleasant,

    And I love thee more than life.’

They by parks and lodges going

    See the lordly castles stand:

Summer woods, about them blowing,

    Made a murmur in the land.

From deep thought himself he rouses,

    Says to her that loves him well,

‘Let us see these handsome houses

    Where the wealthy nobles dwell’.

So she goes by him attended,

    Hears him lovingly converse,

Sees whatever fair and splendid

    Lay betwixt his home and hers;

Parks with oak and chestnut shady,

    Parks and order’d gardens great,

Ancient homes of lord and lady,

    Built for pleasure and for state.

All he shows her makes him dearer:

    Evermore she seems to gaze

On that cottage growing nearer,

    Where they twain will spend their days.

O but she will love him truly!

    He shall have a cheerful home;

She will order all things duly,

    When beneath his roof they come.

Thus her heart rejoices greatly,

    Till a gateway she discerns

With armorial bearings stately,

    And beneath the gate she turns;

Sees a mansion more majestic

    Than all those she saw before:

Many a gallant gay domestic

    Bows before him at the door.

And they speak in gentle murmur,

    When they answer to his call,

While he treads with footstep firmer,

    Leading on from hall to hall.

And, while now she wonders blindly,

    Nor the meaning can divine,

Proudly turns he round and kindly,

    ‘All of this is mine and thine’.

Here he lives in state and bounty,

    Lord of Burleigh, fair and free,

Not a lord in all the county

    Is so great a lord as he.

All at once the colour flushes

    Her sweet face from brow to chin:

As it were with shame she blushes,

    And her spirit changed within.

Then her countenance all over

    Pale again as death did prove:

But he clasp’d her like a lover,

    And he cheer’d her soul with love.

So she strove against her weakness,

    Tho’ at times her spirits sank:

Shaped her heart with woman’s meekness

    To all duties of her rank:

And a gentle consort made he,

    And her gentle mind was such

That she grew a noble lady,

    And the people loved her much.

But a trouble weigh’d upon her,

    And perplex’d her, night and morn,

With the burthen of an honour

    Unto which she was not born.

Faint she grew, and ever fainter,

    As she murmur’d ‘Oh, that he

Were once more that landscape-painter

    Which did win my heart from me!’

So she droop’d and droop’d before him,

    Fading slowly from his side:

Three fair children first she bore him,

    Then before her time she died.

Weeping, weeping late and early,

    Walking up and pacing down,

Deeply mourn’d the Lord of Burleigh,

    Burleigh-house by Stamford-town.

And he came to look upon her,

    And he look’d at her and said,

‘Bring the dress and put it on her,

    That she wore when she was wed’.

Then her people, softly treading,

    Bore to earth her body, drest

In the dress that she was wed in,

    That her spirit might have rest.

History

Marcus Tullius Cicero was a Roman politician, lawyer, and orator who lived from 106 BC to 43 BC. He was one of the very few “new men” in Rome, meaning the first man in his family to become a senator, and gain the highest office of consul. pic.twitter.com/WagNKknn9m

— Roman History (@romanhistory1) March 10, 2024

 

An Insight

The message from the permanent bureaucracy is clear; we can take out anyone who is a threat to our power even if he’s a billionaire backed by the majority of voters. @realchrisrufo nails it. pic.twitter.com/fUYstAs4hh

— Rita Panahi (@RitaPanahi) March 9, 2024

 

I see wonderful things

Giant Sturgeon fish in Canada pic.twitter.com/YI8PGiK3ur

— Nature is Amazing ☘️ (@AMAZlNGNATURE) March 10, 2024

 

Offbeat Humor

Nation's Wealthy, Privileged Gather To Lecture Nation On Evils Of Wealth, Privilege https://t.co/0WQcCwxAuQ pic.twitter.com/k6fLMwRkqo

— The Babylon Bee (@TheBabylonBee) March 10, 2024

 

Data Talks

The UN asked 10 million people their top priorities

Top: education, jobs, health, nutrition
Bottom: climate change

Read my 2020 peer-reviewed article: https://t.co/CC0h7JKIKv pic.twitter.com/Q1fzRXAniG

— Bjorn Lomborg (@BjornLomborg) March 11, 2024

 

Granada Plaza by Clark Hulings (American, b. 1922)

Granada Plaza by Clark Hulings (American, b. 1922)

Click to enlarge.

History

This year we're celebrating *fifty years* since the discovery of the fossil ancestor known as Lucy. Can you believe it? pic.twitter.com/SjVNHFcPx5

— Paige Madison (@FossilHistory) March 11, 2024

 

Tristitia de bonis alienis

From Gaudy Night by Dorothy L. Sayers.  Page 427.

For, to speak in a word, envy is naught else but tristitia de bonis alienis, sorrow for other men’s good, be it present, past, or to come: and gaudium de adversis, and joy at their harms… Tis a common disease, and almost natural to us, as Tacitus holds, to envy another man’s prosperity.

   

From Anatomy of Melancholy by Robert Burton.  

An Insight

To anyone who played sports, did a sales job, or considered the Army during this period, the un-necessary regression we've seen since is insane. https://t.co/K5vUnCnQ4Q

— Wilfred Reilly (@wil_da_beast630) March 9, 2024

 

I see wonderful things

Perfection.......👌
pic.twitter.com/0zxAwcXaQg

— Mahatma Gandhi (Parody) (@GandhiAOC) March 10, 2024

 

Offbeat Humor

This is gonna be even more quotable than “after all this time?” “always.” pic.twitter.com/e2TD7fLeYz

— Hazel Appleyard (@HazelAppleyard_) March 11, 2024

 

Data Talks

"An empirical study by Professor Arthur C. Brooks of Syracuse University, to test the extent to which liberals and conservatives in America donated money, blood, and time to philanthropic endeavors, found that conservatives donated on average both a larger amount of money and a…

— Thomas Sowell, The Genius of... (@AlanWolan) March 11, 2024

 

Flowers in the Field by Francis Luis Mora (Uruguayan-American, 1874 – 1940)

Flowers in the Field by Francis Luis Mora (Uruguayan-American, 1874 – 1940)

Click to enlarge.

History

@Lucius_Gellius @DimitriTilloi @Archeonationale @museesgallo @RAeliusVictor @RomanBinchester https://t.co/Duj5ttPlGl

— T S P (@morangles) March 11, 2024

 

An Insight

International Women's Day where elite women go on TV or write op-eds and ordinary women clock into their nine-to-fives reminds me of when Trump was elected and elite students and profs stayed at home and cried while custodial staff still came in to mop floors and clean gutters.

— Rob Henderson (@robkhenderson) March 8, 2024

 

If we do not penalize false statements made in error, we open up the way for false statements by intention.

From Gaudy Night by Dorothy L. Sayers.  Page 373.  A discussion which seems strangely pertinent to our current academia where DEI appointees plagiarize like it is going out of fashion and 70% or more of research papers in some fields fail to replicate.  

“I’ve no objection to scientific pot-boilers,” said Miss Edwards. “I mean, a popular book isn’t necessarily unscientific.”

“So long,” said Wimsey, “as it doesn’t falsify the facts. But it might be a different kind of thing. To take a concrete instance-somebody wrote a novel called The Search-”

      

“C. P. Snow,” said Miss Burrows. “It’s funny you should mention that. It was the book that the-”

     

“I know,” said Peter. “That’s possibly why it was in my mind.”

 

“I never read the book,” said the Warden.

“Oh, I did,” said the Dean. “It’s about a man who starts out to be a scientist and gets on very well till, just as he’s going to be appointed to an important executive post, he finds he’s made a careless error in a scientific paper. He didn’t check his assistant’s results, or something. Somebody finds out, and he doesn’t get the job. So he decides he doesn’t really care about science after all.”

“Obviously not,” said Miss Edwards. “He only cared about the post.”

“But,” said Miss Chilperic, “if it was only a mistake-”

“The point about it,” said Wimsey, “is what an elderly scientist says to him. He tells “him: ‘The only ethical principle which has made science possible is that the truth shall be told all the time. If we do not penalize false statements made in error, we open up the way for false statements by intention. And a false statement of fact, made deliberately, is the most serious crime a scientist can commit.’ Words to that effect. I may not be quoting quite correctly.”

“Well, that’s true, of course. Nothing could possibly excuse deliberate falsification.”

“There’s no sense in deliberate falsification, anyhow,” said the Bursar. “What could anybody gain by it?”

“It has been done”, said Miss Hillyard, “frequently. To get the better of an argument. Or out of ambition.”

“Ambition to be what?” cried Miss Lydgate. “What satisfaction could one possibly get out of a reputation one knew one didn’t deserve? It would be horrible.”

      

Her innocent indignation upset everybody’s gravity.

Academia, in its treatment of Claudine Gray and others of her ilk, are demonstrating plagiarism and data falsification are no longer the sins they once were and that the pursuit of Truth is no longer the mission of academia.  Committing the right sins, or committing them in the name of the right cause, will get you appointments rather than dismissal.  

I see wonderful things

Once every few years, the Namibian desert experiences what is known as the Sandhof lily bloom.

The lily bulbs sit in the clay beneath the desert floor, waiting patiently for years some centimers of rainfall.pic.twitter.com/S8IkuSiLID

— Massimo (@Rainmaker1973) March 9, 2024

 

Offbeat Humor

we just lived through an astonishingly unethical psychology experiment that had a very low pass rate.

our societal substrate recoils at this knowledge because too many were too complicit for too long.

they want to forget.

but we need to remember or this will happen again. https://t.co/Of88DpAlPl pic.twitter.com/qEsTFrpKXz

— el gato malo (@boriquagato) March 11, 2024

 

Data Talks

Wharton statistician looks at Hamas’ casualty data and concludes they are likely falsifying to maintain a rolling mean & linear growth — and they don’t know how to avoid making anomalies obvious to Western analysts

Women:Children R2=0.017
Men:Women is *negative* with R2 = 0.835 pic.twitter.com/ZD7JxmXMxI

— Max Meyer (@mualphaxi) March 10, 2024

 

Ruins Of The Roman Theatre At Taormina, Sicily by William Stanley Haseltine (American, 1835 – 1900)

Ruins Of The Roman Theatre At Taormina, Sicily by William Stanley Haseltine (American, 1835 – 1900)

Click to enlarge.

If she bid them, they will go barefoot to Jerusalem

From Gaudy Night by Dorothy L. Sayers.  Page 343.

“Harriet rang up the Mitre before breakfast.

      

“Peter, could you possibly come round this morning instead of at six o’clock?”

“Within five minutes, when and where you will. ‘If she bid them, they will go barefoot to Jerusalem, to the great Cham’s court, to the East Indies, to fetch her a bird to wear in her hat.’ Has anything happened?”

“Nothing alarming; a little evidence in situ. But you may finish the bacon and eggs.”

“I will be at the Jowett Walk Lodge in half an hour.”

The allusion, "If she bid them," is from The Anatomy of Melancholy by Robert Burton.  

History

Sofonisba Anguissola ~ whom van Dyck described as “the miraculous painter from life” ~ creates her own self-portrait by painting her tutor Bernadino Campi painting a portrait of her (1559) pic.twitter.com/LN27Vq7KEG

— Journal of Art in Society (@artinsociety) March 11, 2024

 

An Insight

But there is one power that will **always** be greater than govt and that is reality. The role of govt should be to align with reality, to become maximally truth seeking for its own sake, otherwise spurned reality will destroy it. Nemesis always follows Hubris.

— wretchardthecat (@wretchardthecat) March 6, 2024

I see wonderful things

Biomedical innovation is miraculous pic.twitter.com/YbBhD7hEXV

— Alec Stapp (@AlecStapp) March 9, 2024

 

Offbeat Humor

Mel Brooks is a comedic genius pic.twitter.com/EDZoxz1ifz

— Historic Vids (@historyinmemes) March 10, 2024

 

Data Talks

Disruptive pupils reduce the life outcomes of classmates and make teacher’s lives a misery. Why should schools have to teach them? https://t.co/eLgm8qeqJv my latest pic.twitter.com/ZuQOpgBQRx

— Ed West (@edwest) March 6, 2024

 

Robert Fulton by James Henry Cafferty (American, 1819 – 1869)

Robert Fulton by James Henry Cafferty (American, 1819 – 1869)

Click to enlarge

Great Tom, tolling his nightly hundred-and-one

From Gaudy Night by Dorothy L. Sayers.  Page 242.

April was running out, chilly and fickle, but with the promise of good things to come; and the city wore the withdrawn and secretive beauty that wraps her about in vacation. No clamour of young voices echoed along her ancient stones; the tumult of flying bicycles was stilled in the narrow strait of the Turf; in Radcliffe Square the Camera slept like a cat in the sunshine, disturbed only by the occasional visit of a slow-footed don; even in the High, the roar of car and charabanc seemed diminished and brought low, for the holiday season was not yet; punts and canoes, new-fettled for the summer term, began to put forth upon the Cherwell like the varnished buds upon the horse-chestnut tree, but as yet there was no press of traffic upon the shining reaches; the mellow bells, soaring and singing in tower and steeple, told of time’s flight through an eternity of peace; and Great Tom, tolling his nightly hundred-and-one, called home only the rooks from off Christ Church Meadow.

Great Tom and the tolling one 101?  From Wikipedia:

Great Tom is still sounded 101 times every night, which signifies the 100 original scholars of the college plus one (added in 1663). It is rung at 21:05 current UK time, which corresponds to 21:00 in what used to be "Oxford time" (local mean time for Oxford, noon in Oxford always occurring five minutes later than noon in Greenwich), and was at one time the signal for all the Oxford colleges to lock their gates. The bell is only rung by swinging on very special occasions.  

History

Giant Persian Griffin (516-465 BC), Persepolis, Iran.

The word "Griffin" comes from Old French word "griffon," which was used to refer to both the legendary animal and birds of prey in general. Late Latin word "Gryphus," which was derived from an incorrect spelling of ancient… pic.twitter.com/VKfakviPZ1

— Archaeo - Histories (@archeohistories) March 10, 2024

 

An Insight

If you didn't have an AOL screen name, you haven't been through a full real estate market cycle, and don't know what real fear is.

Best,

DMBAntsMarching

— StripMallGuy (@realEstateTrent) March 6, 2024

 

I see wonderful things

Dust from the Sahara covered this Spanish ski resort , a visual of North Africa’s importance to the rest of the world

The most emptiest and parched area of the world supplies vital nutrients through this dust for rainforests and ocean life 1/
pic.twitter.com/HYD2ZAoUOk

— Science girl (@gunsnrosesgirl3) March 8, 2024

 

Offbeat Humor

A short primer on the Modern Left. https://t.co/dGCxWZOrzv

— Bex (@BexStreams) March 9, 2024

 

Data Talks

In the US, 5% of women are blonde. Among female CEOs of Fortune 500 companies, 48% are blonde

Female senators: 35% blonde

Blonde privilege but not height privilege for women apparently. Just 2.2% of male F500 CEOs are blonde https://t.co/FOrmiAyl2v

— Noor Siddiqui (@noor_siddiqui_) February 29, 2024

 

Wild Flowers at the Corner of a Cornfield, c.1855–60 by Martha Darley Mutrie

Wild Flowers at the Corner of a Cornfield, c.1855–60 by Martha Darley Mutrie 

Click to enlarge.

But one halfpennyworth of bread to this intolerable deal of sack!

From Gaudy Night by Dorothy L. Sayers.  Page 224.

“Harriet said nothing, but continued to make out the cheques.

“One thing, there doesn’t seem to be much at Blackwell’s. A mere trifle of six pounds twelve.”

“One halfpennyworth of bread to this intolerable deal of sack.”

Harriet Vane is helping a student get his finances in order, primarily by discovering the expenses owed.  There are many cheques to be written for gambling, dining, and libatious indulgences.  

Having been to Oxford a number of times in my boarding school days, I know of Blackwells.  The counterpart in Cambridge was Heffers.  Both are major bookstores service the academic community of their respective universities.  Or what a heaven each are for a bibliophile.  So the student's expenses for books are a trifle to the expenses for inebriating pastimes.  

“One halfpennyworth of bread to this intolerable deal of sack" is almost certainly Shakespeare again, probably something to do with Falstaff, so Henry IV?  An artful critique of the student's spending priorities by Vane.

OK.  It is Prince Henry speaking about Falstaff in Henry IV.  And the scene is a close match to the circumstances of the student.  In this instance, Falstaff is suspected of a crime.  Peto is Prince Henry friend.  

PRINCE HENRY

This oily rascal is known as well as Paul’s. Go call him forth.

PETO

Falstaff!— [pulls back the arras] Fast asleep behind the arras, and snorting like a horse.

PRINCE HENRY

Hark, how hard he fetches breath. Search his pockets.

PETO searcheth his pockets, and findeth certain papers

What hast thou found?

PETO

Nothing but papers, my lord.

PRINCE HENRY

Let’s see what they be. Read them.

PETO

(reads) Item, a capon, … 2s. 2d.

Item, sauce, … 4d.

Item, sack, two gallons, … 5s. 8d.

Item, anchovies and sack after supper, , , , 2s. 6d.

Item, bread, ob. [halfpenny]

PRINCE HENRY

O monstrous! But one halfpennyworth of bread to this intolerable deal of sack! 

History

Etruscans were an Italian Civilization (8th-3rd Centuries BC), were known for their impressive artistry and craftsmanship, particularly in jewelry-making. Etruscan jewelry was not only a symbol of wealth and status but also had spiritual and cultural significance.

One of most… pic.twitter.com/tpv9ZA5S7c

— Archaeo - Histories (@archeohistories) March 9, 2024

 

An Insight

And thousand year old trees are being exposed from below the ice. Why were these trees growing here, a thousand years ago at pre-industrial levels of CO2? https://t.co/ApWiVbsjLw pic.twitter.com/gXdRWjKNZg

— Dr. Matthew M. Wielicki (@MatthewWielicki) March 6, 2024

 

I see wonderful things

The awesome power and stunning beauty of a humpback whale breaching seen up close.

📽: Beau Pilgrim pic.twitter.com/Y1I1VMrG3d

— Wonder of Science (@wonderofscience) March 8, 2024

 

Offbeat Humor

As of March 7, Sweden has become a member of NATO, bringing with them sophisticated logistical capabilities. To save 90% on fuel and storage costs, from now on, all NATO tanks, trucks, howitzers, and APCs will be transported in flat boxes and assembled on site when needed. pic.twitter.com/HFPvWuH4fF

— Carl (@HistoryBoomer) March 7, 2024

 

Data Talks

419 Swedish economists were asked which economics concepts are most important to understand and manage economics "for an individual" and "for a citizen", respectively.

Opportunity cost was the most popular answer to both questions.https://t.co/wGQNdmzyrI pic.twitter.com/OoPK2xEMrX

— Stefan Schubert (@StefanFSchubert) March 4, 2024

 

The Dream of St. Ursula, 1495 by Vittore Carpaccio

The Dream of St. Ursula, 1495 by Vittore Carpaccio

Click to enlarge.

Be patient and let time pasee

From Gaudy Night by Dorothy L. Sayers.  Page 190.

“You’re dead right,” said Harriet, after a pause. “If one’s genuinely interested one knows how to be patient, and let time pass, as Queen Elizabeth said. Perhaps that’s the meaning of the phrase about genius being eternal patience, which I always thought rather absurd. If you truly want a thing, you don’t snatch; if you snatch, you don’t really want it. Do you suppose that, if you find yourself taking pains about a thing, it’s a proof of its importance to you?”

Two items in this paragraph.  Be patient and let time pass.  Queen Elizabeth I or II?  I am assuming I but I don't know the context.  Here it is.  In 1580 Queen Elizabeth was in negotiations regarding her possible marriage.  England was Church of England from her father's actions and there was strong interest on the continent to bring England back into the Roman fold, preferably by marriage rather than war.  From a letter she wrote during these negotiations. 

“You do not forget, mon tres cher, that the greatest cause of delay [in arranging a match] is due to this [agitation by English zealots against a Catholic marriage], that our people ought to congratulate and to applaud. To bring this about I have let time pass, which generally helps more than reasoning.”

"Genius is eternal patience" is a quote ascribed to Michelangelo.  

History

Souvenir pens are nothing new. This Roman stylus was excavated in London in 2019. It is engraved with an inscription showing it was bought as a souvenir gift for a loved one: 'I have come from the city. I bring you a welcome gift with a sharp point that you may remember me...' pic.twitter.com/V2xQBawQhN

— Gareth Harney (@OptimoPrincipi) January 7, 2023

 

An Insight

Americans are moving away from the office. Employees hired in 2023 now live 35 miles from office, up from 10 miles in 2019.

So firms now are hiring in a much bigger area.

Which is why RTOs are now so hard - folks don't live near the office anymore.
https://t.co/RgwnKklk4p pic.twitter.com/FV8zZkEIWn

— Nick Bloom (@I_Am_NickBloom) March 5, 2024

 

I see wonderful things

What is the name of this animal? pic.twitter.com/wDuaM4mhyL

— Nature is Amazing ☘️ (@AMAZlNGNATURE) March 9, 2024

 

Offbeat Humor

There were eight Davids in my high school class of 94 people. I think about that every time I see tweets like this. https://t.co/lxhVV5Z14i

— Megan McArdle (@asymmetricinfo) March 6, 2024

 

Data Talks

Doing Educational Equity Right: The Homework Gap https://t.co/v21AwzgUTd

— RealClearEducation (@RealClearEd) March 4, 2024

 

Self-portrait, 1559 by Sofonisba Anguissola

Self-portrait, 1559 by Sofonisba Anguissola

Click to enlarge.

Amiable absurdity

From Gaudy Night by Dorothy L. Sayers.  Page 165.

Harriet was opening her mouth to say No, when she looked at Mr. Pomfret, and her heart softened. He had the appeal of a very young dog of a very large breed-a kind of amiable absurdity.

History

A Wedjat Eye Amulet (1077-664 BC), from Tanis (archaeological site in northeastern Nile Delta), Egypt.

One of the most popular amulets in ancient Egypt, the wedjat eye represents the healed eye of the god Horus. It depicts a combination of a human and a falcon eye, since Horus… pic.twitter.com/13KwRznLFu

— Archaeo - Histories (@archeohistories) March 9, 2024

 

An Insight

This headline reads: “without policies that discriminate against whites and Asians and judge applicant solely based on merit, black women can’t succeed”

The soft racism of low expectations on display https://t.co/x9tBmDEuNL

— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) March 4, 2024

 

I see wonderful things

Love this 😂 pic.twitter.com/CSnHJl0LKT

— कान्हा चौधरी 😎(पांवणा जी)💞 (@kanhachoudhary0) March 7, 2024

 

Offbeat Humor

“We would like you to prosecute and imprison violent criminals instead of letting them run amok”

*long pause*

“Best we can do is TSA the subway” https://t.co/jdAZUxwGIZ

— Oilfield Rando (@Oilfield_Rando) March 7, 2024

 

Data Talks

The Sahara is really something. A half-million square miles larger than the lower 48 of the US, with hardly anyone living in it. pic.twitter.com/jRsrv2uYrH

— i/o (@eyeslasho) March 4, 2024

 

Inseparable by David Hettinger ( b.1946, American painter)

Inseparable  by David Hettinger ( b.1946, American painter)

Click to enlarge.

All women are sensitive to male criticism. Men are not sensitive to female criticism. They despise the critics.

From Gaudy Night by Dorothy L. Sayers.  Page 55.

“Do you know any man who sincerely admires a woman for her brains?”

     

“Well,” said Harriet, “certainly not many.”  

“You may think you know one,” said Miss Hillyard with a bitter emphasis. “Most of us think at some time or other that we know one. But the man usually has some other little axe to grind.”

      

“Very likely,” said Harriet. “You don’t seem to have a very high opinion of men-of the male character, I mean, as such.”

      

“No,” said Miss Hillyard, “not very high. But they have an admirable talent for imposing their point of view on society in general. All women are sensitive to male criticism. Men are not sensitive to female criticism. They despise the critics.”

History

The Newport Arch - the remains of the north gateway to Roman Lincoln (Lindum Colonia). Built in around 200 AD, the arch is the only Roman gateway in the UK still used by traffic. #RomanSiteSaturday #RomanBritain #Lincoln 📸 My own. pic.twitter.com/pGc4IhUo1q

— Kevin Wilbraham (@KPW1453) March 9, 2024

 

An Insight

“Meanwhile, utilities keep installing “renewables” that drive up rates. Because, unlike EV’s, you can’t opt out. Until you vote.”

People never learn. pic.twitter.com/P0FTVb4v2Q

— Douglas Ritz (@douglasritz) March 4, 2024

 

You are what you read?

I am not confident that this rises to the level of useful information but it certainly meets the criteria of intriguing data.  From Where Jurors in Trump Hush-Money Trial Say They Get Their News by Charlie Smart.  The subheading is Prosecutors and defense lawyers tried to divine the political leanings of prospective jurors in the former president’s Manhattan criminal trial from their answers to questions about what media they consume.

Twelve jurors and six alternates, eighteen in total.  Probably overwhelmingly from the top three quintiles of New Yorkers.  Certainly strongly Democrats and Progressives.  

Lots of caveats.  Self-report surveys are notoriously unreliable.  On the other hand, it is a court related matter where people are perhaps more likely to be honest.  Maybe.  On the other hand some people might use their answers to try and get themselves screened out of a high profile case while others might do the very opposite.  So all sorts of reasons to be suspect of the accuracy of the responses.  

Are these the news sources representative of those for most Americans?  Probably not.  Are they the news sources representative of those for most urban residents?  Maybe.

Here are the answers.  

    

Click to enlarge.

Only for this particular trial, what does the epistemic world look like, given the reading and viewing habits of this particular New York City jury?

2 (11%) of the jurors consume no news.

2 (11%) get their news from only a single source.

6 (33%) get their news from at least two sources.

8 (45%) get their news from at least three sources or more.

Seemingly a reasonably well informed population (defining well informed as consuming a lot of news which is, in itself, a debatable proposition).  

But what about the orientation and disposition of those news sources?  Ideally, one hypothetically everyone to consume two conservative oriented news sources, two progressive, and 2 neutral.  Much more than most people consume.

Stipulating that the news rooms (independent of the editorial desk) all tend to be overwhelmingly progressive/Democrat, and acknowledging no one is scrupulously neutral, I assigned most news sources based on their general reputation and readership.  I used the Hunter Biden Laptop as a general indicator.

Conservative press/platforms (5): The Daily Mail, Fox News, The New York Post, Truth Social, The Wall Street Journal

Liberal/Progressive (11):  BBC, CNBC, CNN, Facebook, Google, MSNBC, The New York Times, Reuters, USA Today, The Washington Post, WNYC

Neutral (3): NY1, TikTok, X

Each of these could be argued, especially by degree, but I think the assessments reasonably comport with evidence.  5 conservative platforms, 11 progressive, and 3 neutral sounds about right for New York City.

Now, the key question, from an epistemic perspective, just how close minded is the jury pool?  If the ideal is that people get lots of information from many perspectives, how close does this jury pool come to that ideal?

Again, recognizing that the eighteen members ranged from zero news sources up to five, I looked at the mix of sources for each juror.  If all their sources were from one side or the other, I classified that as 100%.  If, for example, someone got news from The New York Times and from TikTok (one progressive and one neutral), I classified them as leans progressive.  If they, for example, read both The New York Times and The New York Post (one progressive and one conservative), I classified that as Heterodox.  If they only got news from neutral sources, then Neutral.  

The results are:

100% Con - 0% of the jury

100% Lib - 39% 

Lean Con - 6%

Lean Lib - 17%

Heterodox - 28%

Neutral - 0%

None - 11%

Right out of the starting gates, 56% (39+17) have news which overwhelmingly or strongly leans towards a progressive view of the world.  Uh oh.  

Only 6% present as at all conservative.  

Robust discussion and assessment clearly depends hugely upon the five individuals who present as Heterodox (one of whom is an alternate.)

There is a limit to what how much reliance can be placed on this data but it is perhaps indicative.

Other sources for reality checks:

Sources of news:  https://www.4media-group.com/blog/intelligence/more-than-half-of-u-s-consumers-watch-tv-news-and-read-news-online/ 

Most popular news platforms:  https://www.statista.com/statistics/717651/most-popular-news-platforms/ 

Where Americans get their news:  https://www.prdaily.com/where-americans-get-their-news-new-data-from-pew-research/ 

Pew Social Media and News Fact Sheet:  https://www.pewresearch.org/journalism/fact-sheet/social-media-and-news-fact-sheet/ 

 

I see wonderful things

Cruise ship being built

[📹 cranes work]pic.twitter.com/WiglB319ys

— Massimo (@Rainmaker1973) March 6, 2024

 

Offbeat Humor

I don't know if I want to live in a world where our heroic civic-minded billionaire professional sports team owners are expected to pay for their own arenas https://t.co/T95BcnW0qd

— David Burge (@iowahawkblog) March 7, 2024

 

Data Talks

New Study on Kids' Mental Health Treatment/Need, by Family Structure:

✔️ 14% Married Bio
✔️ 24% Single Mother
✔️ 27% Married Stepfamily
✔️ 30% Unmarried cohabitating
✔️ 44% Foster

Source: Dr. Nicholas Zill https://t.co/b2p937XiLA @FamStudies pic.twitter.com/ufLddN6NX1

— Brad Wilcox (@BradWilcoxIFS) March 4, 2024

 

Showery Landscape. Jægerspris, Zealand 1898 by Johannes Bentzen-Bilkvist

Showery Landscape. Jægerspris, Zealand 1898 by Johannes Bentzen-Bilkvist

Click to enlarge.

A lady with a turn for invective remarkable even in an age when few mouths suffered from mealiness

From Gaudy Night by Dorothy L. Sayers.  Page 52.  

Passing through the empty Hall, later in the day, she stopped to stare at the portrait of that Mary Countess of Shrewsbury, in whose honor the college had been founded. The painting was a well-executed modern copy of the one in St. John’s College Cambridge, and the queer, strong-featured face, with its ill-tempered mouth and sidelong, secretive glance, had always exercised a curious fascination over her-even in her student days, a period when the portraits of dead and gone celebrities exposed in public places incur more sarcastic comment than reverential consideration. She did not know, and indeed had never troubled to inquire, how Shrewsbury College had come to adopt so ominous a patroness. Bess of Hardwick’s daughter had been a great intellectual, indeed, but something of a holy terror; uncontrollable by her men folk, undaunted by the Tower, contemptuously silent before the Privy Council, an obstinate recusant, a staunch friend and implacable enemy and a lady with a turn for invective remarkable even in an age when few mouths suffered from mealiness. She seemed, in fact, to be the epitome of every alarming quality which a learned woman is popularly credited with developing. Her husband, the “great and glorious Earl of Shrewsbury,” had purchased domestic peace at a price; for, said Bacon, there was “a greater than he, which is my Lady of Shrewsbury.” 

History

just found out that an 11th century man named "horny rick" popularised shoes that were so gay, they made them illegal pic.twitter.com/d7aaDWERoF

— weird medieval guys BOOK OUT NOW !! (@WeirdMedieval) March 8, 2024

 

An Insight

 

Click to enlarge.

I see wonderful things

This bird you're seeing is the Eurasian wryneck, a woodpecker known for its ability to mimic a forest snake as a defence strategy

📹Dr Stanley Tang
pic.twitter.com/YM5mwr2yEm

— Science girl (@gunsnrosesgirl3) March 6, 2024

 

Offbeat Humor

https://t.co/YyKMe2r6lw pic.twitter.com/kWQ3iazdJs

— Razib 🥥 Khan 🧬 📘✍️📱 (@razibkhan) March 6, 2024

 

Data Talks

1/ New peer-reviewed:
“The Covid-19 lesson from Sweden: Don’t lock down”

“Finland & Norway, w/ lowest avg lockdown rate show lowest excess mortality—displaying a negative excess mortality rate. Sweden.. has one of lowest cumulative excess mortality rates”https://t.co/Kyx3MXMuJD

— Kulvinder Kaur MD (@dockaurG) March 4, 2024

 

Winter Window by Kaoru Yamada

Winter Window by Kaoru Yamada 

Click to enlarge.

The easy answer? Cultivate values and behaviors.

From Social Movements and Public Opinion in the United States by Amory Gethin & Vincent Pons.  From the Abstract.

Recent social movements stand out by their spontaneous nature and lack of stable leadership, raising doubts on their ability to generate political change. This article provides systematic evidence on the effects of protests on public opinion and political attitudes. Drawing on a database covering the quasi-universe of protests held in the United States, we identify 14 social movements that took place from 2017 to 2022, covering topics related to environmental protection, gender equality, gun control, immigration, national and international politics, and racial issues. We use Twitter data, Google search volumes, and high-frequency surveys to track the evolution of online interest, policy views, and vote intentions before and after the outset of each movement. Combining national-level event studies with difference-in-differences designs exploiting variation in local protest intensity, we find that protests generate substantial internet activity but have limited effects on political attitudes. Except for the Black Lives Matter protests following the death of George Floyd, which shifted views on racial discrimination and increased votes for the Democrats, we estimate precise null effects of protests on public opinion and electoral behavior.

So protests generate zero impact on public opinion.  And I suspect the one exception (BLM) is just a lag issue.  BLM => Police Defunding => Rising Crime => Restoration of Policing.  

A couple of days ago I posted $11 billion spent (some of it being directly from taxes and most of it being indirectly from taxes) on helping 83,000 people with no measurable benefits achieved.   Social policies almost always fail, fail expensively, and many catastrophically.  

So the research indicates

Social movements don't change anything.

Social policies don't change anything.

That overstates it a bit.  But perhaps not by too much.  

Perhaps Heraclitus (2,500 years ago) had it right all along.

Character is destiny.

Again, overstating it a bit.  But perhaps not by too much.

You want progress.  Forget teachable moments, fundamental transformations, silver bullet policies, national conversations, and mass movements.  Cultivate values and behaviors.  

Language of a place and time

From Gaudy Night by Dorothy L. Sayers.  Page 50.  I attended a small English boarding school (and an American one) and there is definitely a unique language of things and places.  

Sunday lunch in Hall was a casual affair.

[snip]

Harriet, having seized a plate of cold ham for herself, looked round for a lunch partner, and was thankful to see Phoebe Tucker just come in and being helped by the attendant scout to a portion of cold roast beef. 

[snip]

From there they commanded the whole room, including the High Table itself and the row of serving-hatches. 

Hall - Dining hall but usually much more antique and formal than in the US.  It is place where assemblies might be held as well as just dining.  Dining Hall in American prep schools is usually pretty utilitarian.  You eat there.  Whereas Hall in English schools often has a connotation of community.  

Scout - I think this might be Oxford specific.  A servant, usually involved in cleaning but apparently covering serving meals as well as odd jobs around the campus.

High Table - The table where the dons, tutors, and administrators (and their guests dine).  Usually at the top of the hall and perpendicular to the tables used by students.

History

There's Japanese data on cherry tree blossoming stretching back to 812. Some commitment. pic.twitter.com/YdQx4HepYf

— Stefan Schubert (@StefanFSchubert) March 6, 2024

 

 

An Insight

Literally just apply for jobs that match your credentials.

Off of twitter, almost no one has a problem with "diversity" - the existence of Black and Asian executives - as vs affirmative action. https://t.co/c6vwnJGeTn

— Wilfred Reilly (@wil_da_beast630) March 4, 2024

 

I see wonderful things

Population density across the world, visualized in 3D

[🎞️ Tyler Morgan-Wall]pic.twitter.com/kkpgBIZgD6

— Massimo (@Rainmaker1973) March 4, 2024

 

Offbeat Humor

Everything you do comes back to you pic.twitter.com/8ppOjNlaqr

— Historic Vids (@historyinmemes) March 6, 2024

 

Data Talks

Some therapies seem to make things worse rather than better, at least for some people. https://t.co/wrPTlbamwB pic.twitter.com/AEPPM8lEkr

— Steve Stewart-Williams (@SteveStuWill) March 3, 2024

 

Trees, 1963 by S. R. Badmin

Trees, 1963 by S. R. Badmin

Click to enlarge.

A star to flash in an Iliad

From Gaudy Night by Dorothy L. Sayers.  Page 48.

There is a lot poetry quoted, I sense, mostly Elizabethan.

The word and nought else

in time endures.

Not you long after,

perished and mute

will last, but the defter

viol and lute,

Hmm.  Can't place it.

Its from Iliad by Humbert Wolfe, a contemporary of Sayer's.  I see I have a couple of his poems in my anthology.  I especially like

Epigram

By Humbert Wolfe

You cannot hope to bribe or twist,

thank God! the British journalist.

But, seeing what the man will do

unbribed, there's no occasion to.

Anyway, The full Iliad, making the argument that poetry endures whereas passing human emotions and events are nought else.  

Iliad 

by Humbert Wolfe

False dreams, all false,

mad heart, were yours.

The word, and nought else,

in time endures.

Not you long after,

perishded and mute,

will last, but the defter

viol and lute.

Sweetely they'll trouble

the listeners

with the cold dropped pebble

of painless verse.

Not you will be offered,

but the poet's false pain.

Mad heart, you have suffered,

and loved in vain.

What joy doth Helen

or Paris have

where these lie still in

a nameless grave?

Her beauty's a wraith

and the boy Paris

muffles in death

his mouth's cold cherries.

Aye! these are less,

that were love's summer,

than old gold phrase

of old blind Homer?

Not Helen's wonder

nor Paris stirs,

but the bright untender

hexameters.

And thus, all passion

is nothing made,

but a star to flash in

an Iliad.

Mad heart, you were wrong!

No love of yours,

but only what is sung,

when love's over, endures.