Which US state is closest to Africa?

Very interesting information. Virtually useless of course other than to remind us that the obvious is often not so obvious. From Which US state is closest to Africa? It's not Florida by Sean Kane.

I went with Cape Hatteras while Florida also seems a reasonable candidate. In fact, the answer is Quoddy Head Light in Maine. We are not talking about small differences either. Quoddy Head Light is closer to Africa than Florida by nearly nine hundred miles.

Click to enlarge.

Well somebody told us Wall Street fell

Another evening playing Spotify in the background. From Song of the South by Alabama

The line that caught my ear:

Well somebody told us Wall Street fell
But we were so poor that we couldn't tell

That resonates.

You've read the book so you better do it

George E.P. Box on how he became a statistician. From Wikipedia.

I want to tell you how I got to be a statistician. I was, of course, born in England and in 1939... when war broke out in September of that year, although I was close to getting a degree in Chemistry, I abandoned that and joined the Army. They put me in the Engineers (and when I see a bridge I still catch myself calculating where I would put the charges to blow it up).

Before I could actually do any of that I was moved to a highly secret experimental station in the south of England. At the time they were bombing London every night and our job was to help to find out what to do if, one night, they used poisonous gas.

Some of England's best scientists were there. There were a lot of experiments with small animals, I was a lab assistant making biochemical determinations, my boss was a professor of physiology dressed up as a colonel, and I was dressed up as a staff sergeant.

The results I was getting were very variable and I told my colonel that what we really needed was a statistician.
He said "we can't get one, what do you know about it?" I said "Nothing, I once tried to read a book about it by someone called R. A. Fisher but I didn't understand it". He said "You've read the book so you better do it", so I said, "Yes sir"

The passionate advocacy that had accompanied the Reformation

From The Invention of News: How The World Came to Know About Itself by Andrew Pettegree.

The real transformation of the news market would come from the development of a news market in print. This would occur only haltingly after the first invention of printing in the mid-fifteenth century. For half a century or more thereafter printers would follow a very conservative strategy, concentrating on publishing editions of the books most familiar from the medieval manuscript tradition. But in the sixteenth century they would also begin to open up new markets – and one of these was a market for news. News fitted ideally into the expanding market for cheap print, and it swiftly became an important commodity. This burgeoning wave of news reporting was of an entirely different order. It took its tone from the new genre of pamphlets that had preceded it: the passionate advocacy that had accompanied the Reformation. So this sort of news reporting was very different from the discreet, dispassionate services of the manuscript news men. News pamphlets were often committed and engaged, intended to persuade as well as inform. News also became, for the first time, part of the entertainment industry. What could be more entertaining than the tale of some catastrophe in a far-off place, or a grisly murder?

The transition from news purely as a source of data to news as a source of emotional entertainment. Elsewhere in these notes, I have quoted some writer, perhaps Dickens, relating his observation of the neighborhood execution of common criminal somewhere in Italy. Yes, here it is: A rumour got about, among the crowd, that the criminal would not confess. This was in 1846 -

Nobody cared, or was at all affected. There was no manifestation of disgust, or pity, or indignation, or sorrow. My empty pockets were tried, several times, in the crowd immediately below the scaffold, as the corpse was being put into its coffin. It was an ugly, filthy, careless, sickening spectacle; meaning nothing but butchery beyond the momentary interest, to the one wretched actor.

A tumble of thoughts. In various places, there has been speculation that perhaps social activities of the 15th-19th centuries might have had some real evolutionary pressure on the biology of the human species. Specific instances I recall include the prevalence of mortal dueling in Europe and the mass utilization of capital punishment for crimes that to our eyes seem trivial. Dickens catches that sense of trivial execution. Another young man dead and it is no more than a neighborhood entertainment that will be repeated many times in the year. I can't readily find the data but I seem to recall the annual toll from dueling in Paris alone being in the hundreds.

Small populations, high death rates for activities that were contrasocial - might they actually have winnowed the gene pool and helped shape a population more biologically inclined towards prosocial behaviors, tolerance, cooperation, etc.?

Theoretically possible I suppose. Certainly it seems an element behind Gregory Clark's work.

Here is another stray element. Saved by the book. Another form of evolutionary pressure, this one towards literacy.

From Ben Jonson, Britain’s first literary celebrity? by Brian Vickers. In much of Europe through at least the 18th century, if you could read, you were excused from capital punishment.

In his turbulent career Jonson had many scrapes with the law, including prosecution for manslaughter, having killed the actor Gabriel Spencer in a duel in Hoxton Fields. Jonson escaped the gallows thanks to the old law excusing those who could read the so-called “neck-verse” from Psalm 51 as a test of literacy. In several plays, Jonson echoes his own experience with allusions to characters being “saved by the book”.

Trying to organize the tumble of thoughts. In the period of 15-19th century Europe, there is a mass spread of literacy. There are practices (dueling and profligate capital punishment) which put pressure on winnowing out genes towards violence and genes that might inhibit self-control. Possibly also genes that obscure the capacity to discern the cognitive state of others.

Into this mix we throw the emergence of news as a mechanism for inflaming emotional responses to news, thus likely increasing the rate of casual capital punishment and possibly improving the targeting of capital punishment to those low in self-control. Newspapers were concentrated in cities where there was an especial need for greater societal cooperation.

I guess the question becomes - Did the desire for emotional/advocacy news entertainment inadvertently lead to a culling of the population in such a fashion as to increase prosociality and literacy?

Hugely speculative. But entertainingly so.

Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.

Quotes from the great statistician George E.P. Box.

One important idea is that science is a means whereby learning is achieved, not by mere theoretical speculation on the one hand, nor by the undirected accumulation of practical facts on the other, but rather by a motivated iteration between theory and practice.
- Science and Statistics (1976), Page 791


Since all models are wrong the scientist cannot obtain a "correct" one by excessive elaboration. On the contrary following William of Occam he should seek an economical description of natural phenomena. Just as the ability to devise simple but evocative models is the signature of the great scientist so overelaboration and overparameterization is often the mark of mediocrity.
- Science and Statistics (1976), Page 792


The researcher hoping to break new ground in the theory of experimental design should involve himself in the design of actual experiments. The investigator who hopes to revolutionize decision theory should observe and take part in the making of important decisions.
- Science and Statistics (1976), Page 792


For the theory-practice iteration to work, the scientist must be, as it were, mentally ambidextrous; fascinated equally on the one hand by possible meanings, theories, and tentative models to be induced from data and the practical reality of the real world, and on the other with the factual implications deducible from tentative theories, models and hypotheses.
- Science and Statistics (1976), Page 792


Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.
- Empirical Model-Building and Response Surfaces (1987), Page 424

Election 2016 - The lost Twilight Zone Episode

The internet is on fire with the e-mail revelations about the DNC collusion with the Clinton campaign, the stripping of Debbie Wasserman Schultz of her Convention speaking slot, and her subsequent resignation.

Because of course you wouldn't want a corrupt party insider plagued by an email scandal at your convention.

— Tim Siedell (@badbanana) July 24, 2016

Meanwhile, the unmooredness of this election from any sense of norms or even reality seems to grow ever greater. I next come across this.

Statements from Clinton and Obama on @DWStweets’ resignation https://t.co/kFpgatORJx pic.twitter.com/FlyGBkCLjZ

— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) July 24, 2016

Supposedly from the Clinton campaign:

I want to thank my longtime friend Debbie Wasserman Schultz for her leadership of the Democratic National Committee over the past five years. I am grateful to Debbie for getting the Democratic Party to this year's historic convention in Philadelphia, and I know that this week's events will be a success thanks to her hard work and leadership. There's simply no one better at taking the fight to the Republicans than Debbie--which is why I am glad that she has agreed to serve as honorary chair of my campaign's 50-state program to gain ground and elect Democrats in every part of the country, and will continue to serve as a surrogate for my campaign nationally, in Florida, and in other key states. I look forward to campaigning with Debbie in Florida and helping her in her re-election bid--because as President, I will need fighters like Debbie in Congress who are ready on day one to get to work for the American people.

Surely that can't be right? (I know, I know - Don't call me Shirley) The Clinton campaign is accused of inappropriately colluding with the DNC to rig the system for Clinton. Accusation is pooh-poohed in the media. E-mails reveal the accusation is true. Leader of the DNC resigns and immediately accepts a position in the Clinton campaign?

No, No, No. That has to be a spoof.

A quick check on the New York Times sheds no light but paragraph 32, (THIRTY-TWO!!!), in the Washington Post seems to confirm it. If I were a Bernie supporter, I would be livid at the crony-capitalism, insider dealing and rewarded dishonesty on display.

This election cycle has the hallmarks of a lost Twilight Zone episode.

Titanic in Philadelphia

Of course things aren't nearly that bad for the Democratic National Convention, but still, this is pretty witty anyway.

I will be continuously updating you with the latest scenes from Philadelphia pic.twitter.com/rsBIAYd37T

— Steve Goddard (@SteveSGoddard) July 24, 2016

Pathological defect or personality quirk? Journalist or campaign operative with a byline?

Well, that's awkward timing. A couple of days ago, it was revealed that at least one Politico "journalist" (AKA Democrat operative with a byline) has been submitting his articles to the Clinton campaign for prior approval before publication. Now we have Why Can’t Hillary Stop Fudging the Truth? by Todd S. Purdum, an extended effort to softly, softly turn a pathological compulsion to lie about everything into a kinder, gentler personality quirk that needs understanding.

This isn't, contra Purdum, about fudging the truth and sins of omission. This is about self-serving lying.

Purdum's is an odd article to publish after just having been exposed as a Clinton Campaign house organ. Perhaps, focused on campaign writing, Politico "journalists" don't actually read the news and therefore don't realize they have been exposed? An absurd speculation except, in this campaign cycle, it seems that there is no speculation so absurd that can be indulged in that doesn't have a real prospect of turning out to be true.

Purdum's article is an exercise itself in sycophancy and dissimulation.

Europe’s more humble residents sought out news where they could find it: in conversation, correspondence, from travelers and friends.

From The Invention of News: How The World Came to Know About Itself by Andrew Pettegree.

In the first stages of our narrative almost no one made money from supplying news. On the contrary, the provision of news was so expensive that only the elites of medieval Europe could afford it. You either had to pay large sums to build up a network of messengers – a fixed cost that proved beyond the means even of some of Europe’s wealthiest rulers – or rely on those under a social obligation to provide news for free: feudal dependants, aspirants for favor, or, in the case of the Church, fellow clerics. Even Europe’s most mighty princes frequently cut costs by handing their despatches to friendly merchants, who would carry them for free.

It is only in the sixteenth century that we will encounter the systematic commercialization of these services. The first to make money from selling news were a group of discreet and worldly men who plied their trade in the cities of Italy. Here in Europe’s most sophisticated news market they offered their clients, themselves powerful men, a weekly handwritten briefing. The most successful ran a shop full of scribes turning out several dozen copies a week. These avvisi were succinct, wide ranging and remarkably well informed. They are one of the great untold stories of the early news market.

This was an expensive service, yet such was the thirst for information that many of Europe’s rulers and their advisers subscribed to several of them. But such facilities only met the needs of those for whom access to the best sources of information was a political necessity. The vast majority of the population made do with what news they could come by for free: in the tavern or marketplace, in official announcements proclaimed on the town hall steps. These too played an important role in shaping the climate of opinion, and would remain an essential part of the news market throughout the period covered in this book. Europe’s more humble residents sought out news where they could find it: in conversation, correspondence, from travelers and friends.

I wonder if there is an insight here into the differing evolutions of the powers in Europe versus the more autocratic powers in Asia. What I see being described here is essentially a competitive market for news. Granted a fragile market, but competitive none-the-less. Competitive between buyers of the service as well as competitive among the providers.

Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy

From Jerry Pournelle's website.

Pournelle's Iron Law of Bureaucracy states that in any bureaucratic organization there will be two kinds of people:

First, there will be those who are devoted to the goals of the organization. Examples are dedicated classroom teachers in an educational bureaucracy, many of the engineers and launch technicians and scientists at NASA, even some agricultural scientists and advisors in the former Soviet Union collective farming administration.

Secondly, there will be those dedicated to the organization itself. Examples are many of the administrators in the education system, many professors of education, many teachers union officials, much of the NASA headquarters staff, etc.

The Iron Law states that in every case the second group will gain and keep control of the organization. It will write the rules, and control promotions within the organization.