Sunday, December 24, 2023

Sex may be a more useful explanatory variable than gender identity for predicting the performance of athletes

At a different time of year, say, April 1st, I would assume this to be a joke.  It apparently is not. 

From Study shows sex could be a better predictor of sports performance than gender identity.  The subheading is Sex may be a more useful explanatory variable than gender identity for predicting the performance of athletes in mass-participation races, a new paper has found.

The answer seems so obvious but apparently it has not actually been measured before.  I guess we chalk this one up to a confirmation of common sense.

Published in BMJ Open Sports and Exercise Medicine, the authors believe their findings suggest it is valuable to include both sex and gender identity in data collection.

Dr John Armstrong, King's, Dr Alice Sullivan, University College London and George M Perry, an independent researcher from the USA, conducted a study analysing data on the performance of people who competed in the non-binary category of 21 races in the New York Road Runners database.

Outside of purely biological outcomes and criminology, little empirical work has been done to test the theory that gender identity is more important than biological sex as a cause of gender disparities in outcomes. The data set of 166 race times achieved by non-binary athletes within a data set of 85,173 race times was selected as it was the largest available consistently formatted data on non-binary athletes.

Since the race results do not provide the sex of non-binary athletes, the sex of non-binary athletes was either derived from previous races they had run, or where this wasn’t available, the researchers used a novel technique to model the sex of athletes probabilistically based on their given names, using US Social Security Administration data. Race times were used as the outcome variable in linear models with explanatory variables derived from biological sex, gender identity, age and the event being raced.

The researchers found a sex gap in race times between athletes who identify as non-binary, and that there is no evidence that the gap between biological males and biological females is less for athletes who identify as non-binary. The results also indicate that non-binary athletes may have slower race times than other athletes once sex and age are controlled for.

Reality seems to be breaking out all over.



The Journey to Bethlehem by Jane Crowther

The Journey to Bethlehem by Jane Crowther

























Click to enlarge.

History

 

An Insight

 

Academia as the Augean Stables

From this thread:
Ham for the win.

Genevieve Guenther is a product of academia.  From Wikipedia.

Guenther received her bachelor's degree from Columbia University and her Ph.D. from the University of California, Berkeley, in 2004, in Renaissance literature.

So, a humanities professor.

But

Genevieve Juliette Guenther is an American author and climate change activist. A former Renaissance scholar, she is the founding director of the media watchdog organization End Climate Silence. She is currently affiliate faculty at the Tishman Environment and Design Center at The New School.

From professor of Shakespeare to a climate change activist professor - quite a career shift.  No wonder AGW has such a challenge establishing itself as a credible scientific field if its more vocal participants are from the humanities.

What is this whole storm in a tea cup?

I came across the first accusation a couple of days ago.  What I then read was (extracted from tweets)

Dr. Genevieve Guenther
@DoctorVive 
 
One of the most powerful English professors of the past 40 years stole an argument I made in a seminar presentation, turning it into the core of his next book. 

The week after my presentation, he came into the classroom and he read a conference paper he was going to deliver at the Shakespeare Association that month, re-articulating exactly what I had said about the same material the week before. The 15 or so grad students around the seminar table were dumbfounded. Jaws on the floor. 

2/n

She is coy about actually making a direct accusation, presumably for fear of being sued.  I am not sure how sound a strategy that is because she keeps dropping increasingly obvious hints so that it quickly becomes apparent that she is probably accusing Stephen Greenblatt of plagiarism.  

He, ironically given the circumstances of Harvard President Claudine Gay, is a professor of Shakespeare at Harvard.  From Wikipedia:

Greenblatt was born in Boston and raised in Newton, Massachusetts. After graduating from Newton High School, he was educated at Yale University (BA 1964, PhD 1969) and Pembroke College, Cambridge (MPhil 1966). Greenblatt has since taught at the University of California, Berkeley, and Harvard University. He was Class of 1972 Professor at Berkeley (becoming a full professor in 1980) and taught there for 28 years before taking a position at Harvard University. He was named John Cogan University Professor of the Humanities in 2000. Greenblatt is considered "a key figure in the shift from literary to cultural poetics and from textual to contextual interpretation in U.S. English departments in the 1980s and 1990s."

I am interpreting "contextual interpretation" to mean that he has been part of the wave of academicians pushing the Woke transformation of the past thirty years.  

And as an aside, we have a plagiarist Harvard Shakespearean professor Stephen Greenblatt who works for a plagiarist president of Harvard University, Claudine Gay, who is being accused during the administration of president Joe Biden whose first presidential campaign was sunk by his plagiarism.  

With an appropriate head nod to Sir Walter Scott and acknowledgement of his inspiration.

Oh how tangled become our lies
When first we start to plagiarize

Anyway.

Clickthrough on the embedded Genevieve Guenther tweet for the full elaboration of her accusation (plus the responses.)
She knows her academic audience and gets a lot of support for how the mean male professor used power dynamics to exploit her naive doctoral student self to steal her ideas for his book.  There is plenty of support for her position and moral outrage going around.  

But accusations without names is pretty mealymouthed.  In fact, there is more than a whiff of moral corruption on the part of the accuser.  Just make your accusation, don't tease an audience with clues and hints.  This feels far more about gaining attention than actually revealing an injustice or righting a wrong.  Very passive aggressive academia.

She may very well be a victim of plagiarism but her presentation of her own case undermines it.

Ham's joke is about the end of Guenther tweet thread.  Guenther has made her veiled allegation.  A Woke male humanities professor at Berkeley stole her doctoral student ideas and published a book based on it.  Plagiarism and sex power dynamic issues.  Which naturally leads to . . . 

Dr. Genevieve Guenther
@DoctorVive

Again, the person I'm talking about is perhaps the most celebrated scholar in the field — and a hugely successful crossover author. And EVERYONE KNOWS HE'S A PLAGIARIST. 

So if there are any doubts over double standards—comparing one white professor stealing whole arguments to a black grad student repeating banal phrases, performing "scholarliness," in her fucking acknowledgements, which are not even ideas—let this anecdote help put them to rest.

The right is going after Gay because they don't want the kids at Harvard to have any sort of an anti-racist education and they're not even trying to hide it. DON'T FALL FOR IT, FFS. Support Gay. Support DEI. Support anti-racism. 

And, yes, US right-wing politics are so dangerous right now that I feel like I have to defend the president of fucking *Harvard*, which is absurd, but that's the power of today's white supremacists, to make *Harvard* a bastion of racial sanity. What a time to be alive. 

Wait . . . What did I just see?

A profound indictment of plagiarism by the powerful in academia leading to . . . a defense of plagiarism by the powerful in academia (a defense of Gay), and an attack on those seeking to expose plagiarism and double standards in academia.  

Well, my goodness.  That was an unexpected crash into the wall.  

The Woke defending the plagiarists and the exploiters.  In the words of that grand old Harvard man, Henry Kissinger in another context:

It's a pity they both can't lose.

Neither Gay nor Greenblatt have had their day in court.  With even the Harvard and DEI friendly Washington Post turning against her, Gay's days may be numbered.

Greenblatt?  Guenther might be simply an aggrieved fabulist envious of a successful and accomplished professor.  After all, he is a man which, in the world of Woke, is the original sin.  It is conceivable that Guenther's entire plaint is a product of the aggrieved intersectionalist Woke cult of victimhood mind.  

I especially enjoyed Greenblatt's Swerve, How the World Became Modern.  As an argument, I don't find it completely convincing.  As a history of a particular book (Lucretius' On the Nature of Things) and a history of medieval and Renaissance Europe, it was entertaining and informative.  If he plagiarizes, it decreases his personal stature but doesn't take away from his accomplishment.  From a moral perspective, regrettably, all artists and creators are human and therefore subject to the litany of human failings.

Does Guenther's accusation have merit?  No idea.  Certainly possible.  Maybe even plausible.  Her presentation of her argument undermines its own credibility, performing an academic strip tease, removing one more veil of modesty at a time as Guenther effectively reveals the person she is accusing without wanting to accuse.

In the end, there may be a real charge.  Maybe Greenblatt is indeed a serial plagiarizer.  

On the other hand, Guenther's accusation may simply be the product of an infect Woke mind all twisted up in intersectionality.  We may be looking at a three classes of victim, with one of them trying to assert primacy as well as claiming to be a white knight for the beleaguered racial minority.

This might be a youngish white Woke woman redeeming her unearned privilege by accusing an elderly Jewish man of a crime (plagiarism) already also committed by a middle-aged black woman.  Talk about competitive victimhood.  I have no idea who has the points in this match.  

As a nation, we need to undertake the herculean task of cleaning the academic Augean stables.  It won't be easy but it is most certainly necessary.

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 

Data Talks

 

Christmas Tree - Chadds Ford, 1922 by N.C. Wyeth (American, 1882-1945)

Christmas Tree - Chadds Ford, 1922 by N.C. Wyeth (American, 1882-1945) 




























Click to enlarge.

Saturday, December 23, 2023

Amid the gloom, there was one upbeat note.

From The Coldest Winter by David Halberstam.  Page 100.  Background and context to an historical event I learned about in ninth grade in 1974 in Social Studies at the Anglo-American School in Stockholm, Sweden from Mr. Ball.  That was the Soviet misstep of boycotting the United Nations in its decision making dealing with the North Korean invasion of South Korea.  The Soviet boycott meant that all the decisions in the UN were made by America and its allies.  A mistake not repeated by the Soviet Union in the future.

For a fourteen year-old, Mr. Ball clearly was an authority and I had no reason to doubt him but his explanation seemed . . . improbable.  Little did I know then of the inanity of dynamic, evolving complex systems.  As it turns out, Mr.s Ball's explanation was reasonably accurate.  From Halberstam.

In Washington, Dean Rusk, the assistant secretary of state for the Far East, and Joe Collins, the Army chief of staff, were working their end of the teleconference between roughly 3 A.M. and 4 A.M. But because they were, relatively speaking, lower-level officials, and the hour was early, it turned out to be a slow and clumsy process. Higher authorization was always needed. These were not minor issues posed by Tokyo: they were about nothing less than war and peace. Answers did not come quickly. There were delays on a number of points and this did not please MacArthur. “This is an outrage! When I was chief of staff I could get Herbert Hoover off the can to talk to me! But here, not just the Chief of Staff of the Army delays, but the Secretary of the Army and the Secretary of Defense. They’ve got so much lead in there that it’s inexcusable.”

At about 4:30 A.M. Washington time, MacArthur confirmed his request for ground troops to Collins, and Collins called Pace, who in turn called Truman. Truman was always an early riser. His internal farm-boy clock had never left him. He was shaved by the time he got Pace’s call. Just before 5 A.M. on the morning of June 30, 1950, he approved the use of American ground troops in Korea. With that the deed was done. In the very beginning MacArthur had said that he could easily handle the invasion if only Washington would leave him alone. Now he said he needed two divisions to do it. He was, it would turn out, still underrating the enemy, and overrating the forces who would serve under his own command, including American troops.

Truman still wondered if there were a plus side to the offer of Chiang’s troops. He then called in Acheson, Harriman, Johnson, and the Joint Chiefs to talk one last time about using them. With the South Korean Army falling apart, Chiang’s offer still made some sense to the president as a stopgap measure. Acheson was sure it would bring the Chinese Communists into the war. And the Joint Chiefs wanted no part of it either.

Amid the gloom, there was one upbeat note. U.S. troops would fight under a United Nations flag. Before Truman approved the use of American ground troops, he had already gotten UN authorization—easier then than it would be in any decade to come. The UN of 1950 was still very much a reflection of American and Western European interests, the only significant dissent coming from the Soviets and their satellites. It was in some ways very much a last vestige of a white man’s world. On the Security Council vote to authorize the use of force in Korea, the only two abstentions were by non-white countries, India and Egypt. Beginning in the late 1950s and accelerating into the 1960s, the coming of the end of the colonial era, and the arrival of newly independent African and Asian and Middle Eastern nations, would change the UN’s makeup dramatically, greatly diminishing Western influence and turning it into an organization that conservative political factions in the United States and Western Europe absolutely scorned. The Russians had foolishly boycotted the Security Council meetings on Korea (ironically because they were protesting the fact that the Chinese Nationalists were still on the council), and with their veto gone, the Americans got the resolution they wanted on Tuesday, June 27, eventually giving the predominantly American force a UN flag under which to fight.

Chiang Kai-Shek and the Kuomintang, though defeated by the Chinese Communists under Mao, had retreated to Formosa (Taiwan) by 1950 but still were on the Security Council owing to their having been the wartime government in China who fought against the Japanese and as full allies of the US.