Tuesday, December 19, 2023

42%

I casually follow supply chain and logistics news and have been puzzled by multiple red flags in various global logistics indicators.  Why?  Not based on shipping availability.

It then occurred to me that there are three choke points of global trade where there are events occurring simultaneously which might raise the concerns of shippers, insurers, and manufacturers.

In Asia, China is forcing a confrontation between the Chinese Navy and that of the Philippines based on asserting highly disputed sea boundaries.  While not near the Malacca Straights, they are not all that far from them.

25% of global trade goes through the Malacca Straights.

The Houthi keeping raising their game in the Red Sea into an active war and piracy zone targeting shipping passing through the Red Sea to the Sinai Canal.  

12% of global trade goes through the Red Sea and Suez Canal.

In the New World, Panama is suffering from an el Nino drought such that the amount of shipping going through the Canal is down 40%.

5% of global trade transits the Panama Canal.

Between the three of them, these global trade choke points account for roughly 40% of global trade.  No wonder the logistical red flags are flying.

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