Thursday, December 28, 2023

Choosing to ignore attention seeking surveys which offer misleading results

Many good points.  Easier to read the short essay than to summarize.  From Don't Put too Much Stock in Survey Finding that 67% of 18-24-Year-Olds Say Jews are "Oppressors".  by Ilya Somin.  The subheading is The much-cited Harvard-Harris poll question has flawed wording,and is at odds with other, better surveys.

Among the important points is this:

A second problem is that the question uses terminology ("oppressors," "ideology") that may not be familiar to respondents who don't follow politics closely (which many studies show a large percentage of the public does not). If you're reading this post, you probably do follow politics closely, and may find it hard to believe that anyone is unfamiliar with terms like "ideology." Perhaps that's also true of all or most of your friends and relatives. Maybe none of them would be confused about such things, either.

But, if so, you and your social circle are highly unrepresentative. Most of the general public is not like that. A majority of Americans can't name the three branches of government, don't know when the Civil War happened, and support mandatory labeling of food containing DNA (the latter probably because they don't understand what DNA is). Political scientists also find that most of the public has little understanding of such basic political concepts as "liberal" and "conservative." It would not be surprising if the same was true of many survey respondents' understanding of "oppressor" and "ideology," though admittedly I haven't seen research specifically focused on these terms.

Political enthusiasts overlap closely with those who are either politicians or whose livelihoods are largely dependent on politics.  They are noisy about politics and also a small minority and unrepresentative of the average American and their concerns.  This isolation from the norm is routinely overlooked.

The point of small numbers of individuals driving impressions is universal and not limited to the question of antisemitism.

If anti-Semitic sentiment is actually much lower than the result on the "oppressor" question suggests, why the dramatic increase in anti-Semitic incidents since the war started? The answer is that a small minority of the public does have anti-Semitic views, and those become more salient at a time when Israel and Jews are highly prominent in the news cycle. Much research shows that, when a set of attitudes become more salient due to current events, people are more likely to act on them. Moreover, the far-left variant of anti-Semitism is disproportionately represented on college campuses (which have a higher proportion of far-leftists than the general population), thus accounting for the relatively high number of incidents there.

The actions of a small but virulent and galvanized minority of bigots can still cause pain and—in extreme cases—lead to horrific hate crimes. That's a genuine problem. But it should not lead us to give undue credence to dubious survey results that make anti-Semitism seem much more widespread than is actually likely to be the case.

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