Saturday, July 31, 2021

Make things more expensive and dangerous and less will be demanded.

From The Donut Effect of Covid-19 on Cities by Arjun Ramani and Nicholas Bloom.  From the Abstract:

Using data from the US Postal Service and Zillow, we quantify the effect of Covid-19 on migration patterns and real estate markets within and across US cities. We find two key results. First, within large US cities, households, businesses, and real estate demand have moved from dense central business districts (CBDs) towards lower density suburban zip-codes. We label this the “Donut Effect” reflecting the movement of activity out of city centers to the suburban ring. Second, while this observed reallocation occurs within cities, we do not see major reallocation across cities. That is, there is less evidence for large-scale movement of activity from large US cities to smaller regional cities or towns. We rationalize these findings by noting that working patterns post pandemic will frequently be hybrid, with workers commuting to their business premises typically three days per week. This level of commuting is less than pre-pandemic, making suburbs relatively more popular, but too frequent to allow employees to leave the cities containing their employer.

One of those existential mismatches.  Cities, and certainly city planning departments in recent decades have been enthusiastic densifiers.  Get more density into the city and tax revenues should go up.  The costs are borne by the existing residents who lose quality of life and experience increased crime.  This was already an endemic issue pre-covid.  The burdens and consequences of city responses to Covid-19 seem to have shifted the calculation.  More people are preferring less-dense locations.  Whether out of resistance to increasing authoritarian big city government actions, loss of quality of life, or because the risk reward ratio between city benefits versus suburban benefits has shifted is not yet delineated, but the tidal direction is increasingly clear.  


No comments:

Post a Comment