The best way, he says, is to provide good education and good jobs in these areas. “Fifty-eight percent of black youth cannot get a job, cannot work,” he says. “Fifty-eight percent. If you are not going to bring jobs back, it is just going to continue to get worse and worse.”The Washington Post ran an article a couple of days ago. Trump keeps claiming the most dangerous cities in America are all run by Democrats. They aren't.
It’s a claim that drives fact-checkers to distraction. The Bureau of Labor Statistics puts the unemployment rate for blacks between the ages of 16 and 24 at 20.6 percent. Trump prefers to use its employment-population ratio, a figure that shows only 41.5 percent of blacks in that age bracket are working. But that means he includes full time high-school and college students among the jobless.
It’s a familiar split. When he makes claims like this, the press takes him literally, but not seriously; his supporters take him seriously, but not literally.
A classic instance of taking him literally, but not seriously. And also a classic case of the Streisand Effect.
What are the facts? Washington Post provides the data.
If you use the number of instances/cases of violent crime, then the top ten most violent cities are all governed by a Democratic Mayor.
If you use the number of instances/cases of violent crime per 100,000 residents, then only the top four most violent cities are governed by Democrats.
Only one city in the entire data set is governed by a Republican Mayor, and that is the 17th most dangerous in number of violent crimes and doesn't even show up on the violent crime rate. There are three cities governed by Independents.
Looking at the forty data points (20 cities, two measures of violence each), then only 3% are governed by a Republican and 7% are governed by Independents. Democrats govern 90% of the most dangerous cities.
And this is how the Washington Post thinks they are refuting Trump's claim that the most dangerous cities are all governed by Democrats - by showing that there is only one city governed by a Republican, his city being among the most safe on their list. And by showing that three cities are governed by Independents.
The Washington Post actually thought they were owning Trump by posting this? pic.twitter.com/m6PnV7Y4JC
— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) June 27, 2020
Not only is this a classic instance of taking him literally, but not seriously. It is also a classic case of the Streisand Effect. And it is also an example of a frequent Trump tactic that the mainstream media cannot help themselves get suckered by. Even after four years.
By picking at definitional nits to muster at least some narrow definitional point that could make Trump's statement untrue, they in effect trigger the Streisand Effect. By laboring so hard and transparently absurdly to refute his claim, they simply bring more attention to the claim and effectively validate it.
But proving him not literally accurate (only 90% of the most dangerous cities are governed by Democrats), they make a spectacle of demonstrating for most people that he is seriously pretty accurate.
And once again they allow Trump, the media puppet master, to use the mainstream media to make his point for him.
It works almost every time. Trump makes a slightly or seriously exaggerated claim. The mainstream media fall all over themselves to prove that on some occasions, in some circumstances, seen from just the right angle, Trump's claim is not universally true. And end up demonstrating that his basic argument is true and now unintentionally validated by his opponents.
This is Charlie Brown and Lucy with the football. We know how it ends. The mainstream media knows how it ends. But they simply cannot stop themselves from scoring minor points while making their opponent's primary point for him.
He baits them, they respond, their brand goes down (jesuitical nit picking) while they advance his argument for him. As a corollary, they also end up feeding the impression of Fake News. It is a modern political wonder.
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