Tuesday, November 30, 2021

History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 

Data Talks

 

Wellfleet Road, 1931 by Edward Hopper

Wellfleet Road, 1931 by Edward Hopper















Click to enlarge.

Monday, November 29, 2021

History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 



















Click to enlarge.

Data Talks

 

Snow at Kiyomizu Hall in Ueno, 1929 by Kawase Hasui

Snow at Kiyomizu Hall in Ueno, 1929 by Kawase Hasui




















Click to enlarge.

Sunday, November 28, 2021

History

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

I see wonderful things

 

Data Talks

 

Harvest of Plums by Camilla Göbl-Wahl (Austrian, 1871-1965)

Harvest of Plums by Camilla Göbl-Wahl (Austrian, 1871-1965)




















Click to enlarge.

Saturday, November 27, 2021

We often see only the ebb of the advancing wave and are thus discouraged. It is history that teaches us to hope.

Letter to Lieutenant Colonel Charles Marshall (September 1870) from Robert E. Lee.

My experience of men has neither disposed me to think worse of them or indisposed me to serve them; nor in spite of failures, which I lament, of errors which I now see and acknowledge; or of the present aspect of affairs; do I despair of the future.

The truth is this: The march of Providence is so slow, and our desires so impatient; the work of progress is so immense and our means of aiding it so feeble; the life of humanity is so long, that of the individual so brief, that we often see only the ebb of the advancing wave and are thus discouraged. It is history that teaches us to hope.

But she was wrong.

Woof!  What a tragedy.  From Man Is Exonerated in Rape Case Described in Alice Sebold’s Memoir by Karen Zraick and Alexandra Alter.  

The rape took place in a Syracuse, N.Y., park in 1981 and was described in raw detail in a memoir published nearly 20 years after it occurred, as the man convicted of the crime struggled to rebuild his life after his release from prison.

The book, titled “Lucky,” launched the career of the author Alice Sebold, who later rose to international fame with “The Lovely Bones,” a novel that also centers on sexual assault and sold millions of copies.

The man who was convicted of the attack, Anthony J. Broadwater, had always maintained he was innocent. On Monday, he was exonerated, as a state judge, his defense lawyers and the Onondaga County district attorney agreed that the case against him had been woefully flawed.

[snip]

In their motion to vacate the conviction, the defense lawyers J. David Hammond and Melissa K. Swartz wrote that the case had relied solely on Ms. Sebold’s identification of Mr. Broadwater in the courtroom and a now-discredited method of microscopic hair analysis.

They also argued that prosecutorial misconduct was a factor during the police lineup — that the prosecutor had falsely told Ms. Sebold that Mr. Broadwater and the man next to him were friends who had purposely appeared in the lineup together to trick her — and that it had improperly influenced Ms. Sebold’s later testimony.

The motion to vacate the conviction was joined by Onondaga County District Attorney William J. Fitzpatrick, who noted that witness identifications of strangers, particularly those that cross racial lines, are often unreliable. Ms. Sebold is white, and Mr. Broadwater is Black.

[snip] 
 
Ms. Sebold had no comment on the decision, a spokesman for Scribner, which published “Lucky,” said. The spokesman said that the publisher had no plans to update the text.

A planned film adaptation of “Lucky” played a role in raising doubts about the case against Mr. Broadwater.

Timothy Mucciante was working as executive producer of the adaptation of “Lucky,” but began to question the story that the movie was based on earlier this year, after he noticed discrepancies between the memoir and the script.

Mr. Mucciante said that he ended up leaving the production in June because of his skepticism about the case and how it was being portrayed.

He hired a private investigator, Dan Myers, who spent 20 years working for the Onondaga County Sheriff’s Office and retired as a detective in 2020, to look into the evidence against Mr. Broadwater, and became convinced of Mr. Broadwater’s innocence.

Mr. Myers suggested they bring the evidence they gathered to a lawyer and recommended Mr. Hammond, who reviewed the investigation and agreed there was a strong case. Around the same time, Mr. Broadwater decided to hire Mr. Hammond based on the recommendation of another local lawyer. 

[snip]

Mr. Broadwater recalled that he had just returned home to Syracuse from a stint serving in the Marine Corps in California when he was arrested. He was 20 years old at the time.

He had gone home because his father was ill, he said. His father’s health worsened during the trial, and he died shortly after Mr. Broadwater was sent to prison.

“I just hope and pray that maybe Ms. Sebold will come forward and say, ‘Hey, I made a grave mistake,’ and give me an apology,” Mr. Broadwater said.

“I sympathize with her,” he said. “But she was wrong.”

Ms. Sebold is in the tragic position of both being a rape victim and also having been the primary contributor to the false conviction of an innocent man.  It is further exacerbated by her fame and fortune resting on her recounting of that crime.

There is so much about this that seems wrong.  Deepest respect for Broadwater, as an innocent man wrongly convicted, persisting in his efforts to force the system to acknowledge a wrong.  Kudos also to Mucciante for speaking up when that would almost certainly have damaged his career.  The current DA also did the right thing by agreeing to the exoneration.  

Claims that are original and paradigm-shifting primarily because they are false or baseless.

Heh!

 

History

 

An Insight

Click for the thread. 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 

Making this place a better place for all human beings.

In the face of tragedy, we clutch more desperately for silver linings.  But I think this is different from clutching.  This is the voice of the people breaking through.

Marcus Arbery, father of Ahmaud Arbery, delivered an Age of Enlightenment, Human Universalism message after the guilty verdict against Ahmaud Arbery's killers.  

All lives matter, not just blacks.  We don’t wanna see nobody go through this. I don’t want to see no daddy watch their kid get shot down like that. So it’s all our problem. It’s all our problem. So hey, let’s keep fighting, let’s keep doing it, and making this place a better place for all human beings, all human beings. Everybody. Love everybody. All human beings need to be treated equally.

Amen!  I think it is a clarion call to which 95% of all Americans could respond with enthusiastic endorsement.  Make our communities safer.  All communities.  All lives.

The Mandarin Class, in their pathetic effort to make everything racial, has worked hard to banish "All Lives Matter" as a racist counter-argument.  They are still doing it.  Newsweek does its best to protect the Mandarin Class narrative in No, Ahmaud Arbery's Father Did Not Say 'All Lives Matter' by Khaleda Rahman by trying to distinguish between "All Life Matters" and "All Lives Matter."  A distinction without a difference.  

And a distinction overridden by the substance of Arbery's message.  "I don’t want to see no daddy watch their kid get shot down like that."  Death is not a political slogan.  None of us want any of our children, of any race, taken violently from us.  

The heart of America is big and beautiful and, faced with extremist authoritarian violence and division, is beginning to come out and restate the obvious.  All lives matter.  Freedom matters.  Rule of law matters.  Due process matters.  Natural rights matter.  And on.  The untruths and poison of the repressive class is finally being revealed by the heartfelt voice of the people.

Data Talks

 

An idea worth considering

 



















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The blue boat by Philippe Charles Jacquet (France, b. 1957)

The blue boat by Philippe Charles Jacquet (France, b. 1957)




















Click to enlarge.

Friday, November 26, 2021

By hating vices too much, they come to love men too little.

From The Works of the Right Honourable Edmund Burke Volume III (of XII) by Edmund Burke.  This is pretty densely concentrated wisdom and highly applicable to our current day.  This section is from Reflections on the Revolution in France.  My highlights.

At once to preserve and to reform is quite another thing. When the useful parts of an old establishment are kept, and what is superadded is to be fitted to what is retained, a vigorous mind, steady, persevering attention, various powers of comparison and combination, and the resources of an understanding fruitful in expedients are to be exercised; they are to be exercised in a continued conflict with the combined force of opposite vices, with the obstinacy that rejects all improvement, and the levity that is fatigued and disgusted with everything of which it is in possession. But you may object,—"A process of this kind is slow. It is not fit for an Assembly which glories in performing in a few months the work of ages. Such a mode of reforming, possibly, might take up many years." Without question it might; and it ought. It is one of the excellences of a method in which time is amongst the assistants, that its operation is slow, and in some cases almost imperceptible. If circumspection and caution are a part of wisdom, when we work only upon inanimate matter, surely they become a part of duty too, when the subject of our demolition and construction is not brick and timber, but sentient beings, by the sudden alteration of whose state, condition, and habits, multitudes may be rendered miserable. But it seems as if it were the prevalent opinion in Paris, that an unfeeling heart and an undoubting confidence are the sole qualifications for a perfect legislator. Far different are my ideas of that high office. The true lawgiver ought to have a heart full of sensibility. He ought to love and respect his kind, and to fear himself. It may be allowed to his temperament to catch his ultimate object with an intuitive glance; but his movements towards it ought to be deliberate. 
 
Political arrangement, as it is a work for social ends, is to be only wrought by social means. There mind must conspire with mind. Time is required to produce that union of minds which alone can produce all the good we aim at. Our patience will achieve more than our force. If I might venture to appeal to what is so much out of fashion in Paris,—I mean to experience,—I should tell you, that in my course I have known, and, according to my measure, have coöperated with great men; and I have never yet seen any plan which has not been mended by the observations of those who were much inferior in understanding to the person who took the lead in the business. By a slow, but well-sustained progress, the effect of each step is watched; the good or ill success of the first gives light to us in the second; and so, from light to light, we are conducted with safety through the whole series. We see that the parts of the system do not clash. The evils latent in the most promising contrivances are provided for as they arise. One advantage is as little as possible sacrificed to another. We compensate, we reconcile, we balance. We are enabled to unite into a consistent whole the various anomalies and contending principles that are found in the minds and affairs of men. From hence arises, not an excellence in simplicity, but one far superior, an excellence in composition. Where the great interests of mankind are concerned through a long succession of generations, that succession ought to be admitted into some share in the councils which are so deeply to affect them. If justice requires this, the work itself requires the aid of more minds than one age can furnish. It is from this view of things that the best legislators have been often satisfied with the establishment of some sure, solid, and ruling principle in government,—a power like that which some of the philosophers have called a plastic Nature; and having fixed the principle, they have left it afterwards to its own operation.

To proceed in this manner, that is, to proceed with a presiding principle and a prolific energy, is with me the criterion of profound wisdom. What your politicians think the marks of a bold, hardy genius are only proofs of a deplorable want of ability. By their violent haste, and their defiance of the process of Nature, they are delivered over blindly to every projector and adventurer, to every alchemist and empiric. They despair of turning to account anything that is common. Diet is nothing in their system of remedy. The worst of it is, that this their despair of curing common distempers by regular methods arises not only from defect of comprehension, but, I fear, from some malignity of disposition. Your legislators seem to have taken their opinions of all professions, ranks, and offices from the declamations and buffooneries of satirists,—who would themselves be astonished, if they were held to the letter of their own descriptions. By listening only to these, your leaders regard all things only on the side of their vices and faults, and view those vices and faults under every color of exaggeration. It is undoubtedly true, though it may seem paradoxical,—but, in general, those who are habitually employed in finding and displaying faults are unqualified for the work of reformation; because their minds are not only unfurnished with patterns of the fair and good, but by habit they come to take no delight in the contemplation of those things. By hating vices too much, they come to love men too little. It is therefore not wonderful that they should be indisposed and unable to serve them.  “From hence arises the complexional disposition of some of your guides to pull everything in pieces. At this malicious game they display the whole of their quadrimanous activity. As to the rest, the paradoxes of eloquent writers, brought forth purely as a sport of fancy, to try their talents, to rouse attention, and excite surprise, are taken up by these gentlemen, not in the spirit of the original authors, as means of cultivating their taste and improving their style: these paradoxes become with them serious grounds of action, upon which they proceed in regulating the most important concerns of the state. Cicero ludicrously describes Cato as “endeavoring to act in the commonwealth upon the school paradoxes which exercised the wits of the junior students in the Stoic philosophy. If this was true of Cato, these gentlemen copy after him in the manner of some persons who lived about his time,—pede nudo Catonem. Mr. Hume told me that he had from Rousseau himself the secret of his principles of composition. That acute, though eccentric observer, had perceived, that, to strike and interest the public, the marvellous must be produced; that the marvellous of the heathen mythology had long since lost its effects; that giants, magicians, fairies, and heroes of romance, which succeeded, had exhausted the portion of credulity which belonged to their age; that now nothing was left to a writer but that species of the marvellous, which might still be produced, and with as great an effect as ever, though in another way,—that is, the marvellous in life, in manners, in characters, and in extraordinary situations, giving rise to new and unlooked-for strokes in politics and morals. I believe, that, were Rousseau alive, and in one of his lucid intervals, he would be shocked at the practical frenzy of his scholars, who in their paradoxes are servile imitators, and even in their incredulity discover an implicit faith.
 

Though the mills of God grind slowly, yet they grind exceeding small

One of the frustrations for a Classical Liberal is that authoritarians in public positions can abuse those positions by enacting edicts or interpretations of law which are manifestly unconstitutional but which cannot be resisted until resolved in the Courts.  The Courts deem what is lawful or not and with all our checks and balances the wheels of justice grind slowly but they do grind exceedingly fine.  [A variation of a couple of lines from Henry Wadsworth Longfellow‘s translation of a French 17th century poem, ‘Retribution,’ by Friedrich Von Logau:

Though the mills of God grind slowly, yet they grind exceeding small;
Though with patience he stands waiting, with exactness grinds he all.

Through the pandemic we have had gross overreaches of authority all up and down the federal system, by Local, State and Federal bodies and by the Executive and Legislative branches.  But the cases are slowly grinding their way through the legal system and beginning to get decided.  And they are being decided in accordance with common sense and Constitutional law.

This past week a court in Missouri decided such a case with clarity and succinctness.  From Shannon Robinson, et al vs. Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services.  

This case is about whether Missouri's Department of Health and Senior Services regulations can abolish representative government in the creation of public health laws, and whether it can authorize closure of a school or assembly based on the unfettered opinion of an unelected official. This Court finds it cannot. 
 
And to add icing to the cake, plaintiff's attorney fees are awarded, to be paid by the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services.  

It is an 18 page decision covering the complaint, findings, interpretation and decision, all rendered in admirably accessible language.  

The decision will almost certainly be challenged and there will be more weeks of obfuscation and debate but for the time being the Department's decisions are rolled back.  And almost certainly will eventually be confirmed as unconstitutional.  

Spring does not come in a flash with snow melt in a day and rivers freed from ice in an afternoon.  There are ebbs and flows.  But Spring does come.  The ice does melt.  Freedom will return from this unfortunate episode of unbridled authoritarianism and bureaucratic tyranny.  

One of the myths by which we Americans are prone to hide our real virtues and make our idealism look as hard-boiled as possible.

From The Legal Conscience Selected Papers Of Felix S. Cohen by Lucy Kramer Cohen.  Felix S. Cohen, was the primary legal architect of FDR's Indian New Deal. 

Fortunately for the security of American real estate titles, the business of securing cessions of Indian titles has been, on the whole, conscientiously pursued by the Federal Government, as long as there has been a Federal Government. The notion that America was stolen from the Indians is one of the myths by which we Americans are prone to hide our real virtues and make our idealism look as hard-boiled as possible. We are probably the one great nation in the world that has consistently sought to deal with an aboriginal population on fair and equitable terms. We have not always succeeded in this effort but our deviations have not been typical. 
 
It is, in fact, difficult to understand the decisions on Indian title or to appreciate their scope and their limitations if one views the history of American land settlement as a history of wholesale robbery.
 

History

 

An Insight

 

So they left that goodly and pleasant city, which had been their resting place near 12 years

On the Pilgrim's departure from Leyden in the Netherlands for the unknown New World.  From Of Plymouth Plantation by William Bradford, Chapter 7.

The rest of the time was spent in powering out prayers to the Lord with great fervency, mixed with abundance of tears.  And the time being come that they must depart, they were accompanied with most of their brethren out of the city, unto a town sundry miles off called Delfshaven, where the ship lay ready to receive them.  So they left that goodly and pleasant city, which had been their resting place near 12 years; but they knew they were pilgrims, and looked not much on those things, but lift up their eyes to the heavens, their dearest country, and quieted their spirits.  When they came to the place they found the ship and all things ready; and such of their friends as could not come with them followed after them, and sundry also came from Amsterdam to see them ship and to take their leave of them.  That night was spent with little sleep by the most, but with friendly entertainment and christian discourse and other real expressions of true christian love.  The next day, the wind being faire, they went aboard, and their friends with them, where truly doleful was the sight of that sad and mournful parting; to see what sighs and sobs and prayers did sound amongst them, what tears did gush from every eye, and pithy speeches pierced each heart; that sundry of the Dutch strangers that stood on the key as spectators, could not refrain from tears.  Yet comfortable and sweet it was to see such lively and true expressions of clear and unfeigned love.  But the tide (which stays for no man) calling them away that were thus loath to depart, their Reverend pastor falling down on his knees, (and they all with him,) with watery cheeks commended them with most fervent prayers to the Lord and his blessing. And then with mutual embraces and many tears, they took their leaves one of an other; which proved to be the last leave to many of them.
 
Indeed, only half of those who shipped, survived the first year in the New World.  51 of the 102 original pilgrims.  

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 



















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Sneaking a sunrise past a rooster

From Bartlett's Book of Anecdotes, edited by Clifton Fadiman.  An anecdote about Hank Aaron. 

Aaron was known as a hitter who rarely failed, the bane of pitchers. As a pitcher on a rival team once said of him, “Trying to sneak a pitch past Hank Aaron is like trying to sneak a sunrise past a rooster.
 

Data Talks

 

Swells after hard weather by Carl Bille (Danish, 1815 - 1898)

Swells after hard weather by Carl Bille (Danish, 1815 - 1898)




















Click to enlarge.

Thursday, November 25, 2021

Wealth has changed in nature over the past century: once held by the elite, it is now widely held in the form of housing and pension savings.

Wealth and history: A reappraisal by Daniel Waldenström.  From the Abstract:

Wealth inequality has attracted considerable attention in recent years. This column presents new historical evidence that revises earlier results and reveals long-term patterns. A key finding is that wealth has changed in nature over the past century: once held by the elite, it is now widely held in the form of housing and pension savings. These changes appear to account for the redistribution of wealth over the last century and the fact that its concentration has remained relatively low in more recent decades despite rapid increases in aggregate wealth.
 

History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

 
















Click to enlarge.

Data Talks

 

The Colossi of Memnon, Thebes by Carl Friedrich Heinrich Werner (German, 1808–1894)

The Colossi of Memnon, Thebes by Carl Friedrich Heinrich Werner (German, 1808–1894)















Click to enlarge.

Wednesday, November 24, 2021

We are a very pro-social species

From Blueprint by Nicholas A. Christakis

In light of the paucity of data on antagonistic networks and given the possibly important role that negative ties might play in social structure, in 2013 my lab decided to tackle the topic in a comprehensive and large-scale manner. Villages in the developing world offer an especially appealing natural laboratory to evaluate the structure of negative ties because they are relatively closed social systems where people cannot easily avoid others whom they dislike. So, we mapped the social networks of 24,812 adults in 176 villages in a field site in western Honduras. Using our Trellis software, we asked respondents to identify “the people in this village with whom you do not get along well.”  I had wanted to make the question even more pointed—perhaps “Whom do you dislike?” or “Who are your enemies?”—but I was advised against this by my project manager, a local expert, who pointed out that Honduras had the highest annual murder rate in the world (86.1 homicides per 100,000 people) and respondents would likely not want to risk answering such questions.

We mapped each of the 176 villages separately and identified all the social connections, both positive and negative, within them, yielding the largest and most detailed study of antagonistic face-to-face ties ever conducted. The villages ranged in size from 42 to 512 adults. Using the three standard name generators, we found that people identified an average of 4.3 friends (which included kinship ties, such as a sibling or spouse), with a range from 0 to 29 (though most people had between 1 and 7 friends). A total of 2.4 percent of the people reported having no friends by these metrics.

The good news is that animosity was much less common than friendship. On average, people identified 0.7 other people they did not like (which could also include people who were kin).  A total of 65 percent of the people reported having no one they disliked. This was the case for 71 percent of the men and 61 percent of the women, meaning that women were either more fractious (perhaps because they also generally report deeper relationships) or (as my sister, Katrina, insists) they simply had better memories about prior social interactions. One particularly vexatious person identified sixteen other people she did not get along with. This woman, who lived in a village of three hundred and twelve people, had four people who did not like her. But on the flip side, she nominated eleven people as friends and thirteen nominated her.

Furthermore, seen from the opposite point of view, on average, people were disliked by 0.6 other people, and most people (64 percent) had no one who disliked them.  The most disliked person was a woman who lived in a village of one hundred and forty-nine people—she had twenty-five people who identified her as an enemy. She herself nominated four people as her friends and only two people as her enemies. Alas, just one person nominated her as a friend.

While the pattern of friendship ties was remarkably consistent across villages, animosity varied widely. Although the percentage of negative ties was 15.6 percent overall, this measure was only 1.1 percent in one village and as high as 40 percent at the other extreme. The environmental, social, and biological forces affecting the formation of positive ties generate greater conformity than those affecting negative ties. The current local environments and cultures of the various villages seemed to have shaped animosity much more than friendship. Maps of the resulting networks for four of our villages are shown in color plate 5.

Just as friends tended to reciprocate friendship, enemies tended to reciprocate animosity, but the rates of reciprocation were quite different: 34 percent and 5 percent, respectively. That is, if you named someone as a friend, it was likely that person had also named you as a friend, but if you named someone as an enemy, it was less likely that individual had also named you as an enemy. This difference highlights the fact that people have secret enemies more often than they have secret friends. People declare their friendships to each other but are less likely to state that they are enemies.

These detailed data gave us the chance to quantitatively explore certain old theories (and commonsense ideas) regarding social connections, namely, that these four principles should hold:

The friend of your friend is your friend.
The enemy of your friend is your enemy.
The friend of your enemy is your enemy.
The enemy of your enemy is your friend.

[snip]

For the first time using population-wide data at this scale, we were able to quantify that the friend of a friend was nearly four times more likely to be a friend than to be an enemy. Our data also confirmed the second and third rules listed above. However, we found no evidence for the fourth rule, which claims that the enemy of your enemy is your friend. This rule is logical, and it would seem to be true. But it is a bit of a delusion. The person who is one’s enemy’s enemy has a large chance of being a friend simply because friends are so much more numerous in any ordinary group. It’s like trying to figure out whether black birds are more numerous than red birds in one location compared to another. Since black birds are generally more numerous than red birds, we must take into account this background prevalence before concluding whether black birds are more numerous in this particular spot. Once the greater frequency of friendship in general is taken into account, it turns out that one’s enemy’s enemy is not more likely to be a friend. In fact, that person is actually more likely to be an enemy.

This appears to relate to the likelihood that both enemies and friends cluster together within communities in networks. In our analysis, we were able to allow for a third possibility—namely, that people could simply be strangers to one another. And people were much more likely to be enemies of people they knew than of people they did not know. One must know someone in order to be either a friend or an enemy. This simple observation means not only that the enemy-making process requires contact and familiarity, but also that enemies are more likely to be found within one’s own group than among people in other groups. We also found that the more friends a person had, the more enemies he or she was likely to have, with each ten extra friends being associated with one extra enemy. Overall, we found that similar underlying social processes, arising from repeated interactions, resulted in both positive and negative ties.

That is a lot of information buried in a lot of words.  These seemed the salient points to me:

Honduras is saturated with endemic violence with 86.1 homicides per 100,000 people

People identified an average of 4.3 friends (which included kinship ties, such as a sibling or spouse), 

The range of number of friendships was from 0 to 29 (though most people had between 1 and 7 friends). 

A total of 2.4 percent of the people reported having no friends by these metrics.

Friendship is much more common than animosity.

On average, people identified 0.7 other people they did not like (which could also include people who were kin).

A total of 65 percent of the people reported having no one they disliked. 

71 percent of the men and 61 percent of the women reported having no one they disliked.

Women were either more fractious than men.

On average, people were disliked by 0.6 other people.

Most people (64 percent) had no one who disliked them. 

The prevalence of friendship ties is steady across villages.  

Level of animosity varies by village from a low of 1.1 percent negative ties to a high of 40 percent.

If you identify someone as a friend, there is a 34% chance they also consider you a friend.

If you identify someone as an enemy, there is a 5% chance they also consider you an enemy.

It is significantly true (4:1)

The friend of your friend is your friend.
The enemy of your friend is your enemy.
The friend of your enemy is your enemy.

The more friends a person has, the more enemies he or she is also likely to have.  Each additional ten extra friends is associated with gaining one extra enemy.

One must know someone in order to be either a friend or an enemy. 

People are much more likely to be enemies of people they know than of people they do not know.

I recognize that Honduras is not likely to be representative of all world communities but the dynamics are probably not dissimilar.  For example, I accept that Honduras in absolute terms is more violent and that other regions or countries might have less absolute violence.  However; I would guess that those other communities have a similar distribution of degrees of enmity (from 1.1% to 40%).

Here are some observations which the above data might support.  I recognize that these conclusions go far beyond the stated knowledge of the study.  

People are far more disposed towards friendship than enmity.  They have 4.3 friends on average and 0.7 enemies providing a friendship to enmity ratio of ~6:1.

People are strongly pro-social with 27 (65/2.7) times more people reporting having no enemies as people reporting having no friends.   

A large plurality (42%) have no enemies and are not seen as an enemy by anyone else (65 percent with no one they disliked times 64 percent with no one disliking them).

Friendship creation is steady across geographies and circumstance but enmity creation varies by as much as a factor of 36 (40/1.1).  Some communities are much more socially toxic than others.  

Unbalanced reciprocity of relationship is significant.  Only 34% of those assed as a friend share that assessment.  Only 5% of those assessed as an enemy share that assessment.  Either we are not aware of these imbalances or we are aware of them and don't consider that imbalance as important.  

Familiarity brings both new friendships and new enmities at a ratio of 10 to 1.  

This last point has some implications for multiculturalism.  Multiculturalism has the assumption that familiarity with one another reduces tensions.  In other words, we can overcome prejudice with familiarity.  What this data seems to suggest is that is not true.  Familiarity will bring increased friendships but also, at a much smaller rate, increased enmities.  All we are changing is tensions based on uninformed bias to negativity based on informed relationships.  Might be better but it is worth understanding.

History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

Offbeat Humor

 


















Click to enlarge.

Data Talks

 

After glow over the Zuni river by William Robinson Leigh (American, 1866–1955)

After glow over the Zuni river by William Robinson Leigh (American, 1866–1955)

















Click to enlarge.

No sex, no drugs, no wine, no women No fun, no sin, no you, no wonder it's dark

Turning Japanese by The Vapors.


Double click to enlarge.


Turning Japanese
by The Vapors

I've got your picture of me and you
You wrote, "I love you", I wrote, "Me too"
I sit there staring and there's nothing else to do
Oh, it's in color, your hair is brown
Your eyes are hazel and soft as clouds
I often kiss you when there's no one else around 
 
I've got your picture, I've got your picture
I'd like a million of ya over myself
I want a doctor to take your picture
So I can look at you from inside as well
You've got me turning up and turning down
And turning in and turning 'round 
 
I'm turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so
Turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so
Turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so
Turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so 
 
I've got your picture, I've got your picture
I'd like a million of them over myself
I want a doctor to take your picture
So I can look at you from inside as well
You've got me turning up and turning down
And turning in and turning 'round 
 
I'm turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so
Turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so
Turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so
Turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so 
 
No sex, no drugs, no wine, no women
No fun, no sin, no you, no wonder it's dark 
 
Everyone around me is a total stranger
Everyone avoids me like a psyched Lone Ranger
Everyone... 
 
That's why I'm turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so
Turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so
Turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so
Turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so 
 
Turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so
Turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so
Turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so
Turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so

Tuesday, November 23, 2021

Kenosha root causes


None of the shootings by Kyle Rittenhouse would have occurred if Joseph Rosenbaum hadn't behaved in a deranged manner. Presumably, Rosenbaum would have done better if he had taken his medication, but he couldn't get his prescriptions filled because the pharmacy was boarded up — closed, because of the riots.

I'm reading more about his condition — here, in The Washington Post — and I see that the plastic bag he threw at Rittenhouse was a small collection of items — deodorant, underwear, socks — that the hospital had given him when he was discharged after a suicide attempt. That's what he had (and lamely threw at Rittenhouse). What he lacked was his drugs: "Hours after he was released from the hospital, Rosenbaum stopped by a pharmacy in Kenosha to pick up medication for his bipolar disorder, only to discover that it had closed early because of the unrest."  
 
They released a mentally ill man into a chaotic city with a prescription for medication that he could not fill. A suicidal man proceeded to get himself killed at the hands of Rittenhouse and to unleash the ill-fated rush to stop Rittenhouse. There are immense and unknowable costs to letting a city decline into chaos. 

Rittenhouse and every other individual — except a truly deranged person, such as, perhaps, Rosenbaum — are responsible for his own actions. We tend to focus on the actions of other human beings, and the trial was a spectacle commanding us to focus on Rittenhouse. The government puts on that show, and that show distracts us from the failings of government. 

There is a very strong argument here.  I have made it a number of the times in other contexts.  We have it going in my city, Atlanta, at the current moment.   For several years, City government and successive mayors have focused on inequality and retributional equity and social exclusion, etc.  They have not focused on infrastructure or policing or rule of law.  

You see these symptoms in Blue cities across the nation.  Low policing leads to not only a more fearful population but a population also preemptively arming itself.  You know, sooner or later, some law abiding citizen is going to surprise, confront, or defensively protect themselves from some ne'er-do-well.  Usually it will be a white home owner and a black thief.  We will then have days or weeks of inflammatory media focusing on the race angle (instead of class.)

Happened in New York, happened in Detroit, happened in New Orleans - it happens everywhere.  It is one of the most ironclad societal laws.  Decline in effective policing leads to an increasingly armed populace which leads to an increasing probability of a mortal encounter between a property owner and thief with possible racial overtones.

You let policing slide, and that is what happens.

Tony Evers as governor and John Antaramian as Mayor were responsible for the chain of events leading to the shootings.  They were predictably responsible.  Reduced policing in combination with increased resident anxiety statistically will lead to a violent confrontation.  

Joseph Rosenbaum, as a child rapist and a violent rioter, can engender virtually no sympathy.  None-the-less, that little detail magnifies the tragedy.

The plastic bag he threw at Rittenhouse was a small collection of items — deodorant, underwear, socks — that the hospital had given him when he was discharged after a suicide attempt.

He was suicidal.  He couldn't get his medication at the hospital.  He acted violently and irrationally.  He assaulted someone.  And he died.  Without his medications and without his small plastic bag of deodorant, underwear, socks.  Rittenhouse was innocent and the Government guilty of this tragedy.

Sweden - All Causes Death trends

An oh-so-excellent illustration of knowledge and data as the basis for perspective.   From a pandemic so bad, that if we stop telling you about it all the time, you'll stop noticing it by el gato malo.











Click to enlarge.

I lived in Sweden from 1970-78.  The entire period had an all causes death rate higher than the Covid-19 era.  We lived not in fear because there was little to fear.  Just as is the case today.

Same fear, different year

Many, at least among those who think, are postulating much of our national friction might simply be a by-product of the evolution of the declining mainstream media.  Deep invested reporting is expensive.  Opinions are cheap.  Fact-checked reporting is expensive.  Hot takes are cheap.  Appealing to a broad audience is hard.  Appealing to a targeted, but smaller, audience is easier.

Panic porn is also easier than science-based reporting.  On almost any novel scientific issue, the unknowns are greater than the knowns and speculative forecasting is easy.  And nothing sells like fear.  

Consequently the legacy media sells panic porn and they sell it to an ever smaller and ever more ideologically self-selected audience.  

I saw this example today of the longish history of that reliance on panic porn.




















Click to enlarge.

History