. . . and Methodists.

From A Reckoning Long Overdue by Sgt. Mom.  

Starts with a disavowal of any particular knowledge of the Iranian situation other than that obtained from a close reading of open source information.

I loved the line, derivative from Mel Brooks' Blazing Saddles.  Sgt. Mom:

First off, although Iran under the Ayatollahs has been a long-running unhealed and gangrenous sore since 1979, given that they sponsored, supported and sheltered every Islamic cutthroat, murderer, desperado, mug, pug, thug, nitwit, halfwit, dimwit, viper, sniper, bomb-maker and hostage taker around. 

The original is from Hedley Lamarr (Harvey Korman) in Blazing Saddles.

I want rustlers, cut throats, murderers, bounty hunters, desperados, mugs, pugs, thugs, nitwits, halfwits, dimwits, vipers, snipers, con men, Indian agents, Mexican bandits, muggers, buggerers, bushwhackers, hornswogglers, horse thieves, bull dykes, train robbers, bank robbers, ass-kickers, shit-kickers and Methodists.

 But later, there is a more serious point which gets glossed over by the glitterati and pundits.  

Also – knowing that a fair number of the Shia clerics who are/were movers and shakers in Iran were serious Twelvers, who believed without a shred of doubt that the so-called ‘hidden iman’ would return after a world-smashing cataclysm which would put paid to all the unrighteous and bring forth a brave new Islamic millennium … which is all very nice, but the serious Twelvers seemed to be of the opinion that it was their duty to bring about that world-smashing cataclysm here and now with what they had in hand … like nukes on Israel and more. I’m assuming that in the latest round of negotiations with the Iranians, our people came to the undeniable realization that “Oh, s**t, these people are totally serious!” … and that if they and everyone else didn’t want to see the Middle East turned into a radioactive sheet of glass then SOMETHING had to be done. And fast.

The past three years has been a lesson in the reality that the world is full of people with divergent beliefs which seem inconceivable and antithetical to the Classical Liberal Age of Enlightenment mind but whose beliefs are nonetheless sincere.  And will be acted upon.

On October 7th, 2023, Hamas invaded Israel, slaughtering civilians, raping, torturing and kidnapping,  Western pundits evaluated these actions in terms of morality, international relations and the international order, in terms of law, and in terms of military efficacy.  What they failed to do was to take Hamas seriously.  Hamas has all along disavowed a two-state solution.  They have wanted a one-state solution.  One state for themselves and the death of all Jews (and infidels more generally.)  

Their actions on October 7th made no sense in terms of morality, international relations and the international order, in terms of law, and in terms of military efficacy but they were quite compatible with a Mahdist millenarian end of days mindset.  

The two-and-a-half year brutal (though targeted) punishment of Hamas by Israel seems not to have changed the worldview of Hamas.  We are back to Kipling's poems.  There can be no Dane Geld paid because you never get rid of the Dane.  You have to destroy the Dane.  There is no evidence or argument that will change the mind of the died-in-the-wool Hamas member.  There is only death from their conviction.

It seems not dissimilar with Iran.  I have no idea whether a changed assessment of their Mahdism millenarian mindset contributed to the current war.  But it has been a running truism for 47 years.  We with our Classical Liberal Age of Enlightenment mindset have continuously discounted what the mullahs have consistently said they wanted.  Death to the Great Satan.  Not just a rhetorical slogan for whipping up the mob but as an articulated sincere goal.

A millenarian mind with a nuclear bomb?  It has been an emerging risk for 47 years.

The 12 day war in 2025 was the first serious effort to tackle that existential threat.  Whether this war is a necessary follow-on because the nuclear threat was not eliminated, or whether it became clear that the aspiration to be a nuclear power would never be eliminated without eliminating the millenarian mind that conjured the desire, I don't know.  But I think it is something to consider.