Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Democrat enthusiasts have an even more jaundiced view of their own base's biases than do Republicans

From Overestimating Explicit Prejudice Causes Democrats to Believe Disadvantaged Groups are Less Electable by Brett Mercier, Jared Celniker, and Azim Shariff. From the Abstract.
Three studies show that Democrats overestimate the explicit prejudice of the American electorate, and thus see disadvantaged groups as less electable. Study 1 found that Democrats underestimated the percentage of Americans who say they would vote for presidential candidates from disadvantaged groups. Study 2 replicated this finding and demonstrated that Democrats who perceive high levels of explicit prejudice towards a group also believe presidential candidates from that group would be less electable. Moreover, Democrats who frequently interacted with Republicans had more accurate estimations of explicit prejudice. Study 3 found that correcting misperceptions about explicit prejudice made Democrats believe generic presidential candidates from disadvantaged groups would be more electable. We did not find evidence that correcting misperceptions affected beliefs about the electability of specific candidates in the 2020 Democratic Primary or support for these candidates.
From the tenor it sounds like Democrats trying to figure out how to makes themselves more successful by being less biased.

It is all a bit wretched because all the "data" is essentially self-reports, notoriously unreliable.

Still, there are interesting insights to be had. In all these graphs, there are self-identified Democrats and their expectations of Republicans and Americans, and there are self-identified Republicans and their expectations of Democrats and Americans.

From the Economist is a summary of the data.

Click to enlarge.

Self-identified Democrats and self-identified Republicans both have markedly lower expectations of the openness of the electorate than does the electorate themselves. Democrats believe consistently and reasonably strongly that American voters are much more prejudiced than they actually are. Republicans aren't quite as jaundiced.

Click to enlarge.

If you look at partisan enthusiasts (Republican and Democrat) you can, not surprisingly see that Democrat enthusiasts have a deep conviction that Republicans are far more prejudiced than Republicans actually are.

It is pretty spectacular just how mistaken Democrats are in their estimation of how willing Republicans are to vote for candidates from different profiles. They are very prejudiced in their view of Republicans.

There are a couple of exceptions. Democrats think that Republicans are more willing to vote for older candidates than they actually are. Democrats, somewhat oddly from my perspective, also think Republicans are more willing to vote for Socialists than Republicans actually say they are. Even Republicans are pretty mistaken, believing that a significant greater number of Republicans are willing to vote for Socialists than actually are.


In contrast, Republican enthusiasts have just about as low an estimation of Democratic voters as do Democratic enthusiasts. In fact, in almost half the cases, Democrat enthusiasts have an even more jaundiced view of their own base's biases than do Republicans.

I don't set much store by it but intriguing stuff.

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