Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Covid questions

From Four puzzling coronavirus facts by Tyler Cowen.
1. Why are we not seeing more problems in Iran if so many people have it?

2. Why is nowhere in the world (with the possible exception of Iran) currently as bad as Northern Italy?

3. Why did Singapore’s containment strategy work, in such a high-density location? Their program is mostly symptom/temperature checking-based, but supposedly a lot of transmission happens before any fever manifested.

4. Why isn’t China seeing a second wave? There aren’t nearly enough infections for herd immunity to be reducing R0.
To which I would add a fifth.
5. Why isn't Africa seeing more cases?
In addition, I am curious about North Korea. Of course we don't know, but with a population adjacent to China and also likely weakened through malnourishment, I suspect we will have bad news out of there soon.

And finally, what about Japan? Covid-19 appears to be especially threatening, even almost exclusively threatening, to the elderly. As a country which has been rapidly aging and among those with the largest population of the elderly, why has their death rate been so low?

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