Wednesday, September 21, 2016

What all the damned fools said would happen has come to pass

From The Academy, January 12th, 1878, quoting Lord Melbourne.
What all the wise men promised has not happened, and what all the damned fools said would happen has come to pass.
Dovetails with Philip Tetlock's research on forecasting. Experts have a poorer record of accuracy than informed non-experts. Pretty much the story of all post-WWII policy in general and virtually all foreign aid and philanthropic initiatives in particular.

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