Climate change summary

From What Should We Do About Climate Change? by David Siegel. A reasonable summary of the global climate change argument and the weaknesses and fallacies. Currently a lot of government and NGOs with a financial interest in there being alarm about climate change hold the field but their position has been weakening in the face of evidence and rising non-insider interest and resistance.

Here are Siegel's ten general conclusions from a scan of the current field:

1. Weather is not climate. There are no studies showing a conclusive link between global warming and increased frequency or intensity of storms, droughts, floods, cold or heat waves.

2. Natural variation in weather and climate is tremendous. Most of what people call “global warming” is natural, not man-made. The earth is warming, but not quickly, not much, and not lately.

3. There is tremendous uncertainty as to how the climate really works. Climate models are not yet skillful; predictions are unresolved.

4. New research shows fluctuations in energy from the sun correlate very strongly with changes in earth’s temperature, better than CO2 levels.

5. CO2 has very little to do with it. CO2 continues its relentless rise, yet our planet hasn’t warmed in 18 years now. (Despite talk of 2015 as the “hottest year on record,” there has been no average global mean temperature increase since 1997.) All the decarbonization we can do isn’t going to change the climate much.

6. There is no such thing as “carbon pollution.” Carbon dioxide is coming out of your nose right now; it is not a poisonous gas. CO2 concentrations in previous eras have been many times higher than they are today.

7. Sea level will probably continue to rise — but not quickly, and not much. Researchers have found no link between CO2 and sea level.

8. The Arctic experiences natural variation as well, with some years warmer earlier than others. Polar bear numbers are up, not down. That has more to do with hunting permits than CO2. Antarctic ice is growing, not shrinking.

9. No one has demonstrated any unnatural damage to reef or marine systems. Additional man-made CO2 will not likely harm oceans, reef systems, or marine life. Fish are mostly threatened by people, who eat them. Reefs are more threatened by sunscreen than by CO2.

10. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and others are pursuing a political agenda and a PR campaign, not scientific inquiry. There’s a tremendous amount of trickery going on under the surface.

All of this is consistent with the preponderance of the evidence I have seen save only item 9. I am still unclear about both the status of reefs worldwide as well as the causal mechanisms where there has been clear bleaching. Siegel's number 9 is likely true but I haven't seen enough to have confidence one way or another.