One sorry event and two clear illustrations of two different underlying problems.
The initiating event was this tweet from US Education Secretary Cardona.
Let’s be data-driven and follow the science when it comes to protecting our students in schools. What does science say about the importance of masking in school?
— Secretary Miguel Cardona (@SecCardona) September 27, 2021
The thread from the original tweet consists of people posting all the evidence against masks. Evidence from robust, well designed studies and even evidence from the CDC itself.
Cardona's tweet is like some sort of religious cult where, by invoking "Science" and "Data", the gullible acolyte believes what he says to be true without understanding at all. And this the Education Secretary!
Cardona then offered his data and "followed the science." It did not go well.
Education Secretary Cardona cited 4 studies to conclude "the evidence is clear" on masking kids in schools
3 of the studies did not have a control group.
The 4th study was just a simulation. https://t.co/XSXoT1qjuW
— Corey A. DeAngelis (@DeAngelisCorey) October 1, 2021
Follow the thread. Even more of a pile on.
For $16 Cardona could have received a cheap (and less embarrassing) education on how to do science by reading Science Fictions: How Fraud, Bias, Negligence, and Hype Undermine the Search for Truth by Stuart Ritchie.
You know, the fundamentals, like control groups, large sample size, pre-registration, public access to resulting data, etc.
When the lead author of one of your four studies contacts you to tell you that you have misunderstood the science and that the study does not support your conclusions, you know you haven't made much of an evidence-based argument.
The DOE has more than 4,000 employees and a budget of more than $70 billion. How could they have let him send out this anemic and embarrassing tweet? It is modeling ignorance, not education. Perhaps it is just a function of thick epistemic bubbles and group think but what the DOE seems to be signaling is that the Department of Education does not understand quality data or understand the scientific process.
Cherry picking four weak studies and then misinterpreting them? How on earth could these jokers be in charge of this behemoth department?
Which leads to the second problem. What is Cardona's educational background which could allow this juvenile mistake? Cardona earned a Bachelor of Science degree in education from Central Connecticut State University in 1997. He obtained a Master of Science in bilingual and bicultural education at University of Connecticut (UConn) in 2001. In 2004, he completed a professional sixth year certification at UConn where he earned a Doctor of Education in 2011.
Cardona is a child of education theory and the education establishment. And he doesn't understand how to make an argument, doesn't understand how to interpret evidence and data, and doesn't understand what constitutes good research and what does not.
Two problems then - 1) Cardona sent an ignorant, ill-informed and factually disputable tweet, 2) Being steeped in education theory seems to provide no training in science, experimentation or data analysis. Other than that, we are in the best of hands.
Explanations?
Perhaps the tweet was from a 27-year old staffer who, according to Rhodes, knows literally nothing. Perhaps Cardona just tweeted out the thought at an emotional moment without considering the integrity of his argument. Perhaps the epistemic bubble at DOE is so thick that simply failed to recognize that the evidence being offered was very weak. Perhaps they were unaware of the large body of more robust studies indicating that masks are of mixed or no value. Perhaps they have never heard of "balance of evidence" when dealing with complex and multi-causal issues. Perhaps Cardona is more committed to political expediency than he is to the truth.
All these explanations, though, seem implausible. Some are going to be less implausible than others but all seem implausible.
If Cardona is exemplary of the other Cabinet members, then no wonder we are accumulating so many self-generated crises.
This whole incident is both remarkable and revealing.
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