Monday, May 31, 2021

History

 

An Insight

 

Lt. Billy Robertson

Memorial Day is the day when I weep the most.  Not because I am a weepy person.  But it is the day when such wonderful stories of courage and service and duty and love of country and love of fellow soldier all emerge.  It is hard not to be moved.  

I thought this year, and perhaps going forwards in the future, to provide individual remembrances from among family.  Memorial Day should not be just in the abstract and conceptual.  These are real people, real sacrifices, and real consequences to those left behind.  It is easy for individual stories to get lost in the abstract of the holiday.

This year's Memorial Day post is for Lieutenant (jg) William (Billy) Robertson USNR, my aunt June's older brother.  

Lt. Billy Robertson was the navigator on a PBY-5 Catalina flying boat, used for patrolling, anti-submarine, and rescues.  Usually, a 7-10 person crew.  

Click to enlarge. 

Lt. Billy Robertson was in the Navy air force, stationed at RAF Pembroke Dock in southwestern Wales from June 1943 to his death on August 1, 1943.  His squadron was there from June to December, 1943 before they were transferred to Morocco.  

Their time at RAF Pembroke Dock was spent on Operation Seaslug.  German submarines attacking the American East coast were based out of French ports and had to exit and return via the Bay of Biscay.  Operation Seaslug was the deployment of PBY-5s to patrol the Bay of Biscay, making it increasingly unsafe for use by U-boat commanders.  

As unsafe as it was for the German U-boats, the PBY-5 patrols were also dangerous in themselves.   

Lt. Billy Robertson was on patrol with Lieutenant William P. Tanner commanding on August 1, 1943.  Robertson was Navigator as well as Fire Control Officer when under attack.  Having completed their outbound patrol, the PBY encountered eight German Junker 88s on the return flight towards RAF Pembroke Dock.  

Under repeated crushing attack, the captain first sought escape in cloud cover.  However, there was not enough cloud to hide in effectively and ultimately the captain had to crash-land the plane in the ocean.  The pilot, co-pilot, and one of the waist gunners managed to escape the sinking craft.  The other five crew members were killed during the encounter with the Germans or on the crash landing.  Lt. Billy Robertson was wounded, believed mortally, at his fire control position in the waist of the plane.  

Click to enlarge.

The three surviving crew members were able to retrieve an inflatable raft and survived 20 hours before being rescued by the HMS Bideford.  

Five days after the crash, four days after their rescue, the three surviving crew members gave their after-action reports of their final flight.    

 

Click to enlarge.  

Uncle Billy Robertson left behind a grieving war widow and his own family.  My Aunt June did not talk about Uncle Billy often but I recall her speaking of him.  We lived in England for a period time and his memory was unusually near.  During the war, he had been accorded a burial in East Anglia but all such interments were relocated after the war to Brookwood Cemetery in Woking, the town in which we coincidentally lived.

For most of my youth I only knew that he had died in WWII and was under the mistaken impression he was in the USAAF.  It was only a couple of years ago, when doing genealogical research, that I came across the after action reports which clarified his service as a navigator in the USNR and his death over the Bay of Biscay.  

Each individual death is a tragedy but its scope and meaning can only be understood in the context of events, family, and the emotional wound left behind for all those who loved the young man.  


Memorial
by Mae Winkler Goodman 

Still sleeps the unknown soldier
His long and dreamless sleep,
While loud with prayer we reaffirm
The faith he died to keep -- 

In graveyards without number,
Upon the nameless stone,
The heart stops to remember,
Then goes ahead, alone . . .  
 
Today we pause in tribute;
Tomorrow we will pass --
The grave marked only by the green
Memorial of grass! 

 

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Unknown title by Matsuura Shiori

Unknown title by Matsuura Shiori

Click to enlarge.

Sunday, May 30, 2021

A red socialist rose by any other name is still a red socialist rose.

I heard about this kerfuffle and thought I would check it out.  There must be another side of the story.

Nope.  Just another mainstream media journalist beclowning himself with obvious untruths.  And the official fact checker no less.

I looked at his Twitter feed to see if he had any follow-up explanations.  No.  I scroll through the responding comments to see if the argument of facts might be there.

Not that I see.  I would have to read his article to know what argument he is making but I can't because it is pay-walled.

I am going with the relatively uncontroversial argument that Nazi is the common abbreviation of the  Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei (National Socialist German Workers' Party). 

Now any decent debater can muddy up the waters with definitional questions about where fascism bleeds into socialism and where socialism bleeds into communism.  

But when you look at the National Socialist German Workers' Party platform, it seems pretty definitively a Socialist platform.  Specifically:

7. We demand that the State shall make it its primary duty to provide a livelihood for its citizens. If it should prove impossible to feed the entire population, foreign nationals (non-citizens) must be deported from the Reich.

9. All citizens shall have equal rights and duties.

10. It must be the first duty of every citizen to perform physical or mental work. The activities of the individual must not clash with the general interest, but must proceed within the framework of the community and be for the general good.

We demand therefore:

11. The abolition of incomes unearned by work.

The breaking of the slavery of interest

13. We demand the nationalization of all businesses which have been formed into corporations (trusts).

14. We demand profit-sharing in large industrial enterprises.

15. We demand the extensive development of insurance for old age.

16. We demand the creation and maintenance of a healthy middle class, the immediate communalizing of big department stores, and their lease at a cheap rate to small traders, and that the utmost consideration shall be shown to all small traders in the placing of State and municipal orders.

17. We demand a land reform suitable to our national requirements, the passing of a law for the expropriation of land for communal purposes without compensation; the abolition of ground rent, and the prohibition of all speculation in land.

19. We demand that Roman Law, which serves a materialistic world order, be replaced by a German common law

20. The State must consider a thorough reconstruction of our national system of education (with the aim of opening up to every able and hard-working German the possibility of higher education and of thus obtaining advancement). The curricula of all educational establishments must be brought into line with the requirements of practical life. The aim of the school must be to give the pupil, beginning with the first sign of intelligence, a grasp of the notion of the State (through the study of civic affairs). We demand the education of gifted children of poor parents, whatever their class or occupation, at the expense of the State.

21. The State must ensure that the nation’s health standards are raised by protecting mothers and infants, by prohibiting child labor, by promoting physical strength through legislation providing for compulsory gymnastics and sports, and by the extensive support of clubs engaged in the physical training of youth.

So what might Kessler's argument be?  Seems a hard argument to make.

I am guessing that he is trying to conflate National Socialism with Fascism, arguing that Nazi's are fascists and cannot therefore be Socialists.  Perhaps he is also making an argument that Socialism and Communism are a continuum (as most Communists argue) and that therefore Nazi Germany being at war with Communists must preclude Nazi's from being National Socialists.

But there is that nagging issue of the party platform.  Probably Kessler may be arguing that its original platform was unrepresentative of its actual platform in the later 1930s.  

One of the problems with that whole line of argument is that Italy under Mussolini, a Nazi Germany ally, was accustomed to self-identifying both as fascist and socialist.

It is pretty thin gruel for a convincing argument.  All four Axis enemies in World War II were totalitarian states.  National Socialist in Germany, Fascists in Italy, Communists in Russia, and Nationalists in Japan.  Germany, Italy, and Russia were all gradations of Socialist/Communist.  None of them were committed to rule of law, equality before the law, individual freedoms, or the subservience of the state to the people.  

Kessler seems to be splitting meaningless hairs trying to protect the left wing of the Democrat Party (the socialist wing) from being tarred with the National Socialist brush.  Politically that makes sense.  Factually and historically it does not.  

Especially given the reemergence in the Democratic Party of the interest in and pursuance of racial group identity and blatant anti-semitism.  Racial ideology and anti-semitism also being attributes of National Socialists in Germany, Fascists in Italy, and Communists in Russia.  

There really doesn't seem to be much of a defense for Kessler trying to claim that the National Socialist German Workers' Party in Germany was not a socialist party.  Which leaves us with the question: Why is it so important to Kessler to advance this untruth?


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Calgary House, Isle of Mull by Anna Teasdale (1932-2020)

Calgary House, Isle of Mull by Anna Teasdale (1932-2020) 

Click to enlarge.

Saturday, May 29, 2021

The first is feigned fragility. The second is angry intolerance.

From Paying the price of free speech by Roger Kimball.

There are two central tenets of the woke philosophy. The first is feigned fragility. The second is angry intolerance. The union of fragility and intolerance has given us that curious and malevolent hybrid I have called the crybully, a delicate yet venomous species that thrives chiefly in lush, pampered environments. 

The 18th-century German aphorist G.C. Lichtenberg observed, ‘Nowadays we everywhere seek to propagate wisdom: who knows whether in a couple of centuries there may not exist universities for restoring the old ignorance.’ Doubtless Lichtenberg thought he was being clever. How astonished he would have been to discover that he was a prophet, not a satirist.

 

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Leaving the Lecture, Faculty Wives, 1936 by Anne Kutka McCosh (1902-1994)

Leaving the Lecture, Faculty Wives, 1936 by Anne Kutka McCosh (1902-1994)

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Friday, May 28, 2021

History

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Fourth of July, ca. 1938 by Ethel Spears

Fourth of July, ca. 1938 by Ethel Spears

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Fort Vimieux, 1831 by J. M. W Turner

Fort Vimieux, 1831 by J. M. W Turner

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Thursday, May 27, 2021

The greenhouse effect of CO2 on 20th century and today's climate remains to be documented, as already concluded from other evidence.

Just another research paper on AGW.  From The temperature–CO2 climate connection: an epistemological reappraisal of ice-core messages by Pascal Richet.  Just another idea in the marketplace of ideas.  However, it is useful in using a long time scale which takes into account more solar cycle and planetary cycles than are usually accounted for in the more naive AGW models.  

From the Abstract:

As simply based on fundamental logic and on the concepts of cause and effect, an epistemological examination of the geochemical analyses performed on the Vostok ice cores invalidates the marked greenhouse effect on past climate usually assigned to CO2 and CH4. In agreement with the determining role assigned to Milankovitch cycles, temperature has, instead, constantly remained the long-term controlling parameter during the past 423 kyr, which, in turn, determined both CO2 and CH4 concentrations, whose variations exerted, at most, a minor feedback on temperature itself. If not refuted, the demonstration indicates that the greenhouse effect of CO2 on 20th century and today's climate remains to be documented, as already concluded from other evidence. The epistemological weakness of current simulations originates from the fact that they do not rely on any independent evidence for the influence of greenhouse gases on climate over long enough periods of time. The validity of models will, in particular, not be demonstrated as long as at least the most important features of climate changes, namely the glacial–interglacial transitions and the differing durations of interglacial periods, remain unaccounted for. Similarly, the constant 7 kyr time lag between temperature and CO2 decreases following deglaciation is another important feature that needs to be understood. Considered in this light, the current climate debate should be considered as being the latest of the great controversies that have punctuated the march of the Earth sciences, although its markedly differs from the preceding ones by its most varied social, environmental, economical and political ramifications.

Basically, CO2 and CH4 are not major influencers of planetary temperatures.  Planetary glacial–interglacial transitions drive temperature changes and CO2 presence.  CO2 is not causal but more of an dependent variable.  

Plausible.

The last sentence is dry and needs translation.  My effort to render it into the vernacular:

The current climate debate should be considered as a contest of social, environmental, economical and political agendas rather than any change in the proficiency and confidence in Earth sciences.  

 

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Italian landscape with umbrella pines, 1807 by Hendrik Voogd (Dutch painter, 1768-18390

Italian landscape with umbrella pines, 1807 by Hendrik Voogd (Dutch painter, 1768-18390

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Still life with a Plate of Onions, 1889 by Vincent van Gogh (1853 -1890)

Still life with a Plate of Onions, 1889 by Vincent van Gogh (1853 -1890) 

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Wednesday, May 26, 2021

Wealth inequality has not increased for three decades when all assets accounted for.

From Social Security and Trends in Wealth Inequality by Sylvain Catherine, Max Miller, and Natasha Sarin.  From the Abstract:

Recent influential work finds large increases in inequality in the U.S. based on measures of wealth concentration that notably exclude the value of social insurance programs. This paper revisits this conclusion by incorporating Social Security retirement benefits into measures of wealth inequality. We find that top wealth shares have not increased in the last three decades when Social Security is properly accounted for. This finding is robust to assumptions about how taxes and benefits may change in response to system financing concerns. When discounted at the risk-free rate, real Social Security wealth increased substantially from $4.8 trillion in 1989 to $41.3 trillion in 2016. When we adjust the discount rate for long-run macroeconomic risk, this increase remains sizable, growing from over $3.9 trillion in 1989 to $33.9 trillion in 2016. Consequently, by 2016, Social Security wealth represents 57% of the wealth of the bottom 90% of the wealth distribution.

For more than a decade, perhaps two, it has been known that a good understanding of the economic conditions of the bottom 20% and even 40% of the income quintiles necessarily requires incorporation of government transfer programs.  Income inequality is much lower when this is done.  It also explains why absolute consumption levels are so much higher for the bottom two quintiles than if you look only at earned income.  

It also creates some interesting insights such as the bottom two income quintiles, all income included, have household incomes and consumption rates near those of the middle class in 1960 or 1970 in real terms.  

This paper is doing the same adjustment on the wealth side of things.  I am not too surprised that there has been not too much increase in wealth inequality over the past three decades.  The top quintile have done exceptionally well from asset valuation increases but Social Security has become increasingly generous, particularly when you take into account other age targeted programs such Medicare.  

Studies such as this are heavily dependent on assumptions and I have not reviewed it in detail but the findings are not a surprise.  Inequality is a desperate rallying cry on the left but it has far less meaning than it did in 1900 or 1950.


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The media's lab leak fiasco - They validated the fake news allegation

 Yesterday I posted The scientific process combined with free speech is a powerful weapon to improve knowledge and overturn authoritarian mistakes.  One more member of the mainstream media, Matt Yglesias has joined the pivot with a critical broadside against the mainstream media narrative.  From this morning, The media's lab leak fiasco.  Even though it covers much of the same ground as yesterday's post, it is short enough to warrant a read due to a few additional insights.

As I believe I have said before, I spent the month of February 2020 intensely focused on covering the seemingly imminent victory of Bernie Sanders in the Democratic Party’s presidential primary. I dedicated approximately 0% of my journalistic energy to covering what was, in retrospect, the clearly more significant story of a novel coronavirus outbreak starting in Wuhan, China and clearly spreading to other parts of the world.

I was aware of the virus in much the way that I am aware of the National Hockey League, but I wasn’t paying attention to it as a journalist. The first piece I published on Covid on March 12 holds up pretty well I think, but it was way too late in terms of the kind of tough travel restrictions that, in retrospect, the country needed.

Yglesias and Taibbi (in yesterday's post) I have respect for as journalists owing to their Classical Liberal viewpoint.  They are willing to make an argument and muster evidence for that argument.  They are not afraid to engage in the marketplace of ideas and are willing to cede points when they are demonstrably wrong.

They are relatively free of the social justice/critical theory cant to which so many shallow minded journalists are subject.  But they still suffer the other evil twin of media - political partisanship and rabid hatred of Republicans in general and Trump in particular.

My view is that both parties are pretty incompetent and corrupt (i.e. subject to special interests rather than the general good of all citizens.  Republicans have the redeeming feature of being much more ideologically diverse which makes them less effective but more representative.  Democrats are venal and seemingly constantly refining their venality.  

Yglesias betrays this in his allusion to his being too late in affirming the importance of tough travel restrictions.  Well . . . perhaps.  But it is readily memorable that Trump was widely mocked and denigrated in the mainstream media for proactively imposing tough travel restrictions before most other countries.  It was only later that they came to the reluctant conclusion that those Trump decision's were well reasoned and to some degree supported by the evidence.

Yglesias' whole article centers around the mainstream media's opposition to Senator Tom Cotton and some early statements he made, and illustrating how the mainstream media constantly distorted his statements to make it seem he was making easily rebuttable arguments which he was not in fact making.

It is an interesting read simply for that detailed postmortem of mainstream media failure.  It was not that they were getting facts wrong.  That happens in a fast news cycle.  It was that they were picking positions based on their politics and ideologies and then sticking with those positions long after there was strong evidence that it was an indefensible position.

It has been a fiasco for the media.  Yglesias asks a good question.  Has the failure been consequential.  He asks three specific questions:

A separate question that’s less clear to me is what follows from this in terms of policy. You can break this down into three questions:

Suppose the media had been more open to Cotton’s point back in February 2020 — what would we have done differently?

Suppose definitive evidence arises this Friday that the virus in some sense came from the Chinese lab — what would we do differently going forward?

Or suppose definitive vindication of the zoonotic origin theory emerges — what difference would that make?

I think in all three of these cases, the answer is basically that nothing would be different. This is not to apologize for the bad coverage but, if anything, to underscore how egregious it was to lean so heavily into the Tom Cotton Is Wrong narrative. The subsidiary premise of that narrative was always that Cotton was doing something extremely nefarious. But while Cotton does indeed have a lot of opinions I disagree with, it’s just not true that this lab leak idea is now or ever was very closely linked to any hot-button policy controversies.

 To some degree I agree "that nothing would be different" in terms of public health policy.

But there is a different question to be asked which Yglesias does not.  

Are there any negative consequences to the media's lab lek fiasco?

Here I think the answer is, Yes!

By restricting himself to the health consequences, Yglesias ignores one of the more important consequences - further erosion of trust in mainstream media.

The media was wrong and critical of Trump and Republicans not because of the facts but because of their political partisanship and ideological sympathies.  Their critical reporting of Tom Cotton's position and deliberate misrepresentation of his argument was not only unprofessional and shameful.  It put the mainstream media in the same narrative camp as the Chinese government.  

The media is now acknowledging that the Chinese argument was insufficient and that Tom Cotton's argument had real merit.  But it is not a good look to be in the same camp as repressive totalitarian regimes and then act repressively (deplatforming) and in an Orwellian and authoritarian fashion ("there is only one truth").

I am not arguing that journalists in the mainstream media are communists seeking to undermine America to benefit the Chines Communist Party.  I am arguing that the loss of economic viability and the rapid decline of journalistic social status is driving journalists to behaviors which make them indistinguishable from CCP supporters and from mindless America critics.  

Or in Yglesias' words:

There’s a question as to why that fake consensus emerged. But I think the more troubling question is: How did people let the original story of what Tom Cotton even said go so badly awry? Essentially Cotton said something that was then transformed into a fake claim of a Chinese bio-attack, then the fake claim was debunked, and then the debunking was applied to the real claim with little attention paid to ongoing disagreement among researchers.

Sure.  But that is a narrow reading.

The broader reading is - Why does the mainstream media keep getting stories dramatically wrong and then defending the wrong narrative when new facts emerge.  They lock themselves into partisan positions regardless of facts and then mindlessly fight their corner.  Instead of providing a stream of facts and evidence to their readers so that readers can form their own opinions.

That is the negative consequence to this incident.  Nothing to do with health policy per se, just an affirmation of partisanship, obliviousness to facts, unprofessionalism and indifference to loss of brand and trust among news consumers.  


Nestled Amongst The Trees by Natasha Newton.

Nestled Amongst The Trees by Natasha Newton

Click to enlarge. 

Tuesday, May 25, 2021

The scientific process combined with free speech is a powerful weapon to improve knowledge and overturn authoritarian mistakes.

Five pieces in pretty quick order suggest there is a media sea change in their understanding of the quality of their reporting - "Fact-Checking" Takes Another Beating by Matt Taibbi,  The 60-Year-Old Scientific Screwup That Helped Covid Kill by Megan Molteni, Flip Flop Fauci and the Origin of Covid by el gato malo, People Bring the Receipts After Fauci Attempts to Dodge Connections to Wuhan Lab by Katie Pavlich, and Origin of Covid — Following the Clues Did people or nature open Pandora’s box at Wuhan? by Nicholas Wade.  All of them amount to indictment of the mainstream media, mostly by members of the mainstream media. It appears that there are too many facts emerging to warrant the continuation of a false media narrative - i.e. that there is a scientific consensus that Covid-19 emerged as a zoonotic from the wild and did not have a lab origin.  

Also here.

The Great Revealing continues to unfold.  

And part of what it reveals is what independent observers have said all along.  There are powerful elements in academia, the mainstream media, and the Deep State who have sought to suppress free speech and independent individuals in order to carry-out repressive state policies inconsistent with our Constitution as well as protect both corporate and international interests allied with academia, the mainstream media, and the Deep State.

There has been plenty to criticize about the CDC Covid-19 response, much of it related to the fact that the CDC turned its back on its own pre-established pandemic plans and sought to pursue actions long ago repudiated by deep data from around the world.

Among the failings has been 1) a failure to establish reliable and meaningful measures of infection and death at the beginning of the pandemic, 2) a failure to follow well established pandemic procedures, 3) a failure to develop Covid-19 treatments in addition to the focus on vaccination, and 4) a failure to acknowledge or investigate Covid-19 origins.

To me, the first three are among the most serious failings, warranting an entirely new leadership of the CDC.  But the fourth is not insignificant, owing to how it might inform the institutional responses to the first three.

Since the beginning, there has been doubt cast on the theory that Covid-19 was simply a zoonotic which jumped the species barrier in a Wuhan wet market.  That was the messaging from the Chinese Communist Party and it was strongly endorsed by academia, the mainstream media, and the Deep State in the US.  

Very early on there was indicative evidence which has become increasingly compelling that Covid-19 was man-made (more properly, man-refined) and escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology through lax security and safety protocols.

In the first seventeen months of the pandemic, technology social media platforms, academia, the mainstream media, and the Deep State have sought to suppress discussion of the evidence for a laboratory source of Covid-19.  Commenters, experts and academics were deplatformed, derided, shamed and otherwise had their speech suppressed with a full court press by an apparent coalition of authoritarians seeking to dispense with free citizens enjoying free speech.  The response by the State interests was both vitriolic and damaging to individuals.

But, fortunately, it was insufficient.  

Evidence kept mounting for a lab origin, China's ham-fisted efforts to prevent WHO from investigating and the simple courage of real scientists have slowly and slowly undermined the official position.

It is not known yet whether Covid-19 originated in the Wuhan Institute of Virology but it has certainly shifted from an impossibility to a possibility to a probability.  

In the process, other issues have been revealed which further shame academia, the mainstream media, and the Deep State.  The US has a ban on gain of function research on viruses as inherently unsafe.  However, there are military, health, and scientific grounds for continuing that research.  

It has now become clear that the National Institutes of Health, through the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases has contracted gain of function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology which is illegal in the US.  Who heads the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases?  Anthony Fauci.

Who was one of the earliest proponents of a natural Covid-19 emergence rather than a lab escape?  Anthony Fauci.  Who has been the chief advisor to the presidents during the Covid-19 pandemic?  Anthony Fauci.

The potential conflict of interest is staggering.  The man who might have been responsible for the research and development of Covid-19 also in charge of the nation's response?  Why isn't this more of a media scandal?

Partly it is of course pure asymmetric politics on the part of the chattering Mandarin class of academia, the mainstream media, and the Deep State.  Partly it is that we do really simply not yet know.  But the desperate measures to forestall free speech and shutdown speculation argues some sort of self-interest that cannot be ignored.

There is a plausible explanation that let's Fauci at least partially off the hook.  Fauci's National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases pretty clearly has funded gain of function research overseas to get around American safety regulations.  But was Fauci aware?  The primary contract went to an outfit familiar to Fauci, EcoHealth Alliance.  A contract which ran from at least 2014-2019.  EcoHealth Alliance then subcontracted gain of function work to be done by a bat virologist at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, Dr. Shi.  

Was Fauci aware that his NIAID was funding gain of function virus research at Wuhan Institute of Virology?  Possibly not.  NIAID contracted with EcoHealth Alliance and EcoHealth Alliance contracted with Dr. Shi.  There is at least plausible deniability.

But again, actions by Fauci and others since the beginning of the pandemic give pause.  The denials were so vehement, they seemed out of proportion and it is only Congressional hearings which have forced the acknowledgement that NIH via NIAID was indeed providing the funds for virus gain of function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

These past ten days seem to have seen a sea change.  Almost indicative of strategic communications decision.  No longer are the denials of funding so vocal or powerful.  The emphasis has shifted to definitions, complexity and nuance.  Almost always an indication that someone has been caught out in a lie.  

All of the above are indicators of bad culture, institutional corruption and startling Mandarin Class treachery.  They are not looking out for the best interests of the American people.  They are protecting their own interests and sinecures.

But there is one more element in this Great Revealing Story.

Early on, and ever since, I pointed out the poor institutional response in terms of establishing clear measurement mechanism, clear definitions, and a focus on all causes death data.  For long periods it has almost seemed like there has been a deliberate effort to focus on the wrong measures.

And some of this is simply that we never knew how poorly our established measurement practices were, particularly in regard to pneumonia and flu.  We were fairly lackadaisical about definitional differences between the two and across a nation of 330 million, that inexactitude carried over in the the pandemic era.  

It is greatly to be desired that after this is all over, and it will pass, we will refocus on how we measure and distinguish pneumonia deaths, from flu deaths, from Covid deaths and any other lung infections.  Science will get better.

The 60-Year-Old Scientific Screwup That Helped Covid Kill by Megan Moltini reveals another public health knowledge gap.  Read the whole article but it does come down to the fact that the medical and health establishment has accepted for decades some assumptions which were never properly investigated in the first place.  

Again, hopefully, this new knowledge will be investigated and validated post Covid-19 emergency because it is quite consequential.  If correct, it reveals once again that there is no validity to the claim to "follow the science."  Science is a process and a self-correcting one where there is freedom of speech.

Covid-19 has provided the impetus to investigate assumptions and our tradition of free speech has allowed us to recognize that the medical establishment has been operating with incorrect information for more than half a century with potentially catastrophic consequences.

If we can avoid ass-covering and the blame game, we can use the pandemic to significantly upgrade both our knowledge and our preparedness.

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Monday, May 24, 2021

Russian audiences frequently mislead them, intentionally giving the wrong answer

Its an old report from 2011 but an intriguing one.  From Are Game Show Audiences Trustworthy? by Gwen Sharp.

In Sway: The Irresistible Pull of Irrational Behavior, Ori and Rom Brafman discuss a contestant on Qui Veut Gagner des Millions?, the French version of Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?, who asks the audience for help with the question, “Which of these revolves around the Earth?” His options are the sun, the moon, Venus, and Mars. While it might be surprising that he doesn’t know, more shocking is the result of the audience poll — 56% say the sun.

How can we explain this? The easiest answer, and the video’s title, is that French people appear to be stupid, or were never informed about the Copernican Revolution. But the Brafmans have an explanation based on different cultural attitudes toward reality shows and, ultimately, ideas about fairness.

The general outlines of Who Wants to Be a Millionaire? are the same regardless of country. But distinct cultural patterns have emerged in how audiences act when asked for help. In the U.S., contestants can count on the audience’s goodwill; regardless of the question asked, audiences appear to do their best to help contestants out and the Brafmans report that data shows the audience is right over 90% of the time. I must admit it had never occurred to me that audiences would do anything other than try to be helpful. Though I don’t watch game shows now, as a kid I regularly watched The Price Is Right, among others, with my family, and we always inherently rooted for the contestant, cringing if they seemed to make a bad choice and rejoicing if they won big. We truly wanted these complete strangers to win.

But not all national audiences are so cooperative. When the show was introduced in Russia, contestants quickly learned to be wary of asking the audience for help because Russian audiences frequently mislead them, intentionally giving the wrong answer. It doesn’t seem to have anything to do with the players or the questions they ask for help on. 

Read the whole thing. 


Events, my dear boy, events

Harold Macmillan quoted by journalist Adam Raphael.

Harold Macmillan was once asked what the most troubling problem of his Prime Ministership was. ‘Events, my dear boy, events,’ was his reply.

 

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Breton Village by Odilon Redon (1840-1916)

Breton Village by Odilon Redon (1840-1916)

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Sunday, May 23, 2021

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Moonlit Coast by Ivan Fedorovich Choultsé (1877-1932)

Moonlit Coast  by Ivan Fedorovich Choultsé (1877-1932)

Click to enlarge.

Saturday, May 22, 2021

Dialing down the signal

Another example of hiding the signal.

Click to read the thread.  The Census Bureau are pretending that there is the potential of breach of confidentiality for respondents even though that has never occurred.   

Social scientists are up in arms because the American Community Survey is a central and always revealing and informative mechanism for understanding reality and cause and effect.  Take it away and we will know less.

Which seems to be the real plan.


All life is divided into three types of problems

For whatever reason, this 


Click to enlarge.

put me in mind of the opening of Commentaries on the Gallic War by Julius Caesar:

All Gaul is divided into three parts.

There are three types of problems

Some of your problems can be solved - Focus, clarity, prioritization, creativity, and effort are required but they can be solved.

Some of your problems are your own fault - Those problems of your own making which cannot be solved because they represent a choice on your part. 

Some of your problems are tragic - They occur for reasons beyond your control with a dangerous predictability.  You may be able to mitigate the impact to a degree but you cannot avoid the consequences.

 

 

 

 

Quote

 

Storytelling supplements genetic evolution - creates secret survival weapon

From Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind by Yuval Noah Harari

Bypassing the Genome

The ability to create an imagined reality out of words enabled large numbers of strangers to cooperate effectively. But it also did something more. Since large-scale human cooperation is based on myths, the way people cooperate can be altered by changing the myths – by telling different stories. Under the right circumstances myths can change rapidly. In 1789 the French population switched almost overnight from believing in the myth of the divine right of kings to believing in the myth of the sovereignty of the people. Consequently, ever since the Cognitive Revolution Homo sapiens has been able to revise its behaviour rapidly in accordance with changing needs. This opened a fast lane of cultural evolution, bypassing the traffic jams of genetic evolution. Speeding down this fast lane, Homo sapiens soon far outstripped all other human and animal species in its ability to cooperate.

The behaviour of other social animals is determined to a large extent by their genes. DNA is not an autocrat. Animal behaviour is also influenced by environmental factors and individual quirks. Nevertheless, in a given environment, animals of the same species will tend to behave in a similar way. Significant changes in social behaviour cannot occur, in general, without genetic mutations. For example, common chimpanzees have a genetic tendency to live in hierarchical groups headed by an alpha male. Members of a closely related chimpanzee species, bonobos, usually live in more egalitarian groups dominated by female alliances. Female common chimpanzees cannot take lessons from their bonobo relatives and stage a feminist revolution. Male chimps cannot gather in a constitutional assembly to abolish the office of alpha male and declare that from here on out all chimps are to be treated as equals. Such dramatic changes in behaviour would occur only if something changed in the chimpanzees’ DNA.

For similar reasons, archaic humans did not initiate any revolutions. As far as we can tell, changes in social patterns, the invention of new technologies and the settlement of alien habitats resulted from genetic mutations and environmental pressures more than from cultural initiatives. This is why it took humans hundreds of thousands of years to make these steps. Two million years ago, genetic mutations resulted in the appearance of a new human species called Homo erectus. Its emergence was accompanied by the development of a new stone tool technology, now recognised as a defining feature of this species. As long as Homo erectus did not undergo further genetic alterations, its stone tools remained roughly the same – for close to 2 million years! 

In contrast, ever since the Cognitive Revolution, Sapiens have been able to change their behaviour quickly, transmitting new behaviours to future generations without any need of genetic or environmental change. As a prime example, consider the repeated appearance of childless elites, such as the Catholic priesthood, Buddhist monastic orders and Chinese eunuch bureaucracies. The existence of such elites goes against the most fundamental principles of natural selection, since these dominant members of society willingly give up procreation. Whereas chimpanzee alpha males use their power to have sex with as many females as possible – and consequently sire a large proportion of their troop’s young – the Catholic alpha male abstains completely from sexual intercourse and childcare. This abstinence does not result from unique environmental conditions such as a severe lack of food or want of potential mates. Nor is it the result of some quirky genetic mutation. The Catholic Church has survived for centuries, not by passing on a ‘celibacy gene’ from one pope to the next, but by passing on the stories of the New Testament and of Catholic canon law.

In other words, while the behaviour patterns of archaic humans remained fixed for tens of thousands of years, Sapiens could transform their social structures, the nature of their interpersonal relations, their economic activities and a host of other behaviours within a decade or two. Consider a resident of Berlin, born in 1900 and living to the ripe age of one hundred. She spent her childhood in the Hohenzollern Empire of Wilhelm II; her adult years in the Weimar Republic, the Nazi Third Reich and Communist East Germany; and she died a citizen of a democratic and reunified Germany. She had managed to be a part of five very different sociopolitical systems, though her DNA remained exactly the same.

This was the key to Sapiens’ success. In a one-on-one brawl, a Neanderthal would probably have beaten a Sapiens. But in a conflict of hundreds, Neanderthals wouldn’t stand a chance. Neanderthals could share information about the whereabouts of lions, but they probably could not tell – and revise – stories about tribal spirits. Without an ability to compose fiction, Neanderthals were unable to cooperate effectively in large numbers, nor could they adapt their social behaviour to rapidly changing challenges.

While we can’t get inside a Neanderthal mind to understand how they thought, we have indirect evidence of the limits to their cognition compared with their Sapiens rivals. Archaeologists excavating 30,000-year-old Sapiens sites in the European heartland occasionally find there seashells from the Mediterranean and Atlantic coasts. In all likelihood, these shells got to the continental interior through long-distance trade between different Sapiens bands. Neanderthal sites lack any evidence of such trade. Each group manufactured its own tools from local materials.

History

 

An Insight

 

I see wonderful things

 

Offbeat Humor

Data Talks

Over the Dnipro River 1954 by Tetyana Yablonska (Russian, 1917-2005)

Over the Dnipro River 1954 by Tetyana Yablonska (Russian, 1917-2005)

Click to enlarge.

Friday, May 21, 2021

An Insight

 

History

Click for the thread.   


I see wonderful things