History

Mouse eating a nut. Roman mosaic (200 BC). Vatican Museums, Vatican City, Rome pic.twitter.com/fcQt76yeBu

— Roman History (@romanhistory1) February 9, 2022

 

An Insight

Yes, ESG seeks to override the U.S. Constitution and the Bill of Rights by using corporations as a workaround to Constitutional protections. https://t.co/EQPArcde4N pic.twitter.com/Jab5gJEXmb

— James Lindsay, wants to liberate New Zealand (@ConceptualJames) February 13, 2022

 

I see wonderful things

Kea steals a GoPro, captures amazing footage of New Zealand’s Fiordland region pic.twitter.com/oW9mqevfcc

— Steve Stewart-Williams (@SteveStuWill) February 11, 2022

 

The tension between the New and Old Testaments is still with us

At the Oscars this past weekend, as presumably everyone knows by now, millionaire actor Will Smith assaulted millionaire Oscars MC Chris Rock for a joke in poor taste by the latter about Will Smith's wife.  And by poor taste, I really mean lame and ill-considered.  

The media has been full of opinions and commentary but I have never watched the Oscars, have no interest in the Oscars, have little interest in the film industry and even less interest in the emo hot-house dramas among Hollywood actors.  

I think most might agree that Chris Rock was wrong for making fun of someone's physical ailments.  Punching down from a position of power is not admirable.  It is a reminder of the contrast with Ricky Gervais' fifth and final round of MCing the Golden Globe awards in 2020.  Gervais punched up, taking the mickey out of actors, directors, producers, and the studios and tech companies.   Now that was comedy with courage.

Double click to enlarge.

I think most might also agree that Will Smith was unequivocally wrong for expressing his anger in physical violence.  Yet there are many vocal supporters from the honor culture angle - taking the view that because his wife was insulted, he was right to seek retribution.  There is a visceral tug towards this sentiment but it is still wrong.

The media's obsessive desire to keep discussing the non-issue was pitiable.  However, it did remind me of a template decades old.  

I was in university, living in a house with five or six housemates.  One of them was Dan Goodman.  He was perhaps a year younger than I was and in a different school.  He was a keen and accomplished nationally competitive debater in the Debate Club and an aspiring lawyer.

He died a dozen years ago, barely fifty years old, taken way too soon, as Deputy Criminal Chief of the Los Angeles U.S. Attorney's Office (a kind encomium here.) 

But when we shared a house, he was a bright, lean debater, kind and civilized in conversation but also incisive and informed.  No matter the issue, if you discussed anything with Dan, you'd better have clear logic and good evidence because he would find the weak points with polite ease.

People like Dan are among the best tutors.  Friendly and kind, they still hold you to a higher standard of thought than what you are accustomed to in ordinary conversations where custom and laziness can lead so easily to faulty thinking.  Having him find fault in your own sloppy thinking was almost a pleasure.  In fact, it was a competitive pleasure.  He was almost always correct in his critique and then it became a contest to see if you could still marshal a strong case for your position even if you knew it to be a weak position.  

In this instance I am recalling, there had been a tragic incident in the suburbs of Washington, D.C. a much smaller town then.  I forget the details now but the broad outline was something along the lines of:  A burglar breaks in to a home and is surprised by the owner, a doctor, and the wife.  The doctor confronted the intruder and was shot.  The burglar escaped on foot.  The doctor, despite his mortal wound, ran out to his car.  He drove the neighborhood, seeking his murderer.  Spotting him, the doctor chased his murderer down and ran him over, disabling him until the police arrived.  

The doctor died shortly after the police showed up.  The murderer was taken in to custody.

This would have been circa 1981 when the US was still climbing to its record high of violent crime in the early 1990s.  But there was much attention being paid to the spiral of violence enveloping the nation.  What to do to protect oneself from predators was on everyone's mind and this tragedy fed that sense of unease.

I expressed admiration for the doctor's persistence in capturing his murderer despite his mortal wound.  It demonstrated to me, a courageous effort.  The fact that, through the doctor's efforts, a murderer was captured and would likely be punished for the murder, was an additional bonus.  While I aspire to New Testament forgiveness, there still is one foot in the Old Testament with a hankering for smiting the wicked.

Dan immediately spotted two flaws in my argument.  The first was that the doctor might have saved his own life had he stayed home and called 911.  By pursuing the attacker while mortally wounded, the doctor perhaps created a tragedy for his wife.  True enough but, I think, a refutable argument.  

The second objection was more arresting.  Dan's argument was along the lines of "The man has suffered a mortal wound.  How reliable can we assume his identification of his assailant to be in the dark?  What if in his spiral towards death, he took out the wrong man?"  Now that is a compelling point.  What would my argument be if the doctor misidentified his assailant in the dark and ran over an innocent?

The Smith/Rock kerfuffle is weak tea but it has the same element of the tension between exacting vengeance and being the mature adult and turning the other cheek.  

The only good thing about this unpropitious drama is the pleasure of remembering Dan, a good man taken too soon.  

Offbeat Humor

Screenshots of embarrassing things liberals said violate the Twitter Rules. pic.twitter.com/wrLryuMuSK

— Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) February 16, 2022

 

Offbeat Humor

“Guys, help me” 😅 pic.twitter.com/b9pIEpefqn

— Buitengebieden (@buitengebieden_) March 22, 2022

 

Data Talks

When Uber or Lyft entered a town, entrepreneurship increased by 5%! "The insurance that gig work opportunities can provide against entrepreneurial-related economic uncertainty serves to increase entrepreneurial activity and galvanize would-be entrepreneurs" to launch startups. pic.twitter.com/yOtl6VQnIi

— Ethan Mollick (@emollick) February 15, 2022

 

Sun Dreams, 1973 by Poul Anker Bech (Danish, 1942 – 2009)

Sun Dreams, 1973 by Poul Anker Bech (Danish, 1942 – 2009) 

Click to enlarge.

Storm Approaching by Heidi Palmer

Storm Approaching by Heidi Palmer

Click to enlarge.

The Splendid Spur

From Green Bays. Verses and Parodies by Arthur Quiller-Couch

The Splendid Spur

by Arthur Quiller-Couch

     Not on the neck of prince or hound,

       Nor on a woman's finger twin'd,

     May gold from the deriding ground

       Keep sacred that we sacred bind:

                Only the heel

                Of splendid steel

Shall stand secure on sliding fate,

       When golden navies weep their freight.

     

The scarlet hat, the laurell'd stave

        Are measures, not the springs, of worth;

     In a wife's lap, as in a grave,

        Man's airy notions mix with earth.

                Seek other spur

                Bravely to stir

        The dust in this loud world, and tread

        Alp-high among the whisp'ring dead.

     

Trust in thyself,—then spur amain:

        So shall Charybdis wear a grace,

      Grim Aetna laugh, the Libyan plain

        Take roses to her shrivell'd face.

                 This orb—this round

                 Of sight and sound—

        Count it the lists that God hath built

        For haughty hearts to ride a-tilt.

History

#FrescoFriday - Also from the Herculaneum Augusteum comes this panel of the centaur Chiron instructing the young Achilles in music: discovered 28 November 1739. At this point in Term, Chiron looks as tired as me! #Roman #Art

Image: National Archaeological Museum, Naples (9109) pic.twitter.com/FvxITaEzT6

— Dr Crom (@DocCrom) February 11, 2022

 

An Insight

There's no crisis of elite overproduction. There's a massive shortage of top performing workers, of the true elite, as anyone who runs a business that needs them could tell you. There's an oversupply of overeducated, credentialed workers with no ability to think or apply https://t.co/NLA9cCYr1x

— Laeeth (@Laeeth) January 27, 2022

 

I see wonderful things

Can anyone explain the Physics behind this pic.twitter.com/2ujtwekCQY

— Amazing Physics (@amazing_physics) February 14, 2022

 

Offbeat Humor

😭🤣🤣🤣 pic.twitter.com/pSp25uqn4y

— il Donaldo Trumpo (@PapiTrumpo) February 15, 2022

 

Data Talks

“Nine leading scientists from universities including Oxford, Harvard, Johns Hopkins, have urged mandates be dumped in light of evidence they were ‘scientifically questionable, ethically problematic, and misguided.’”https://t.co/MBICAzbwbp

— Michael P Senger (@MichaelPSenger) February 14, 2022

 

Returned from the party, 1905 by Akaky Akakiyevich

Returned from the party, 1905 by Akaky Akakiyevich

Click to enlarge.

Self-selected wards of the state

An interesting piece.  From A Broken Model of Brokenness by Freddie deBoer.  DeBoer starts out quoting a correspondent:

I have met and helped and treated numerous individuals now who are my peers in age - anything from 18-early 30s. And so many have internalized a generational "understanding" of mental illness that is toxic and worthless beyond condemnation. Our youngest generations' understanding of mental health enables, encourages, and at worst glorifies mental illness. I can not understate the number of times I've met a young woman who has made being mentally ill, and polysexual, and queer, and autistic, et cetera, their identity.

Accountability is absent to the nth degree. But more importantly, a lack of any accountability has deprived these people of personal empowerment and agency. Mental illness is no longer something to recover from and fight against. It is an identity and a definition of life itself. There is no reason to seek "cures" (which of course is borderline nonexistent in mental health but thats a whole essay itself), there is no reason to look to better ourselves. There is no reason to fight our internal struggles at a personal level, without feeling the need to inform every last member of the community whom we interact with. This is not only society's problem, but our peers'.

An interesting observation and one with which I concur.  It feels like in recent decades we have sought to relieve the young of the burden of responsibility.  We have done so by pathologizing discomfort.  And every discomfort has to be sourced to something institutional or external which causes an infirmity to the sufferer.  

My view is not that there are no legitimate mental illnesses or that such conditions are not material and threatening.  My point is that we have stretched definitions to such an extent that we invoke real diagnoses for merely uncomfortable circumstances and by doing so we strip the young of their agency and accountability.  If you cannot bear accountability, you cannot be responsible and if you cannot be responsible, you cannot be a real and full citizen.  

My particular bugbear, which I hear in various formulations, is ascribing bad or maladaptive behavior to some uncomfortable event which purportedly caused mild PTSD.  PTSD is real and can be severe.  Acting out after being rejected for a lead part in the school play is not suffering from PTSD (for example.)

The original correspondent observes:

I can not understate the number of times I've met a young woman who has made being mentally ill, and polysexual, and queer, and autistic, et cetera, their identity.

Accountability is absent to the nth degree. But more importantly, a lack of any accountability has deprived these people of personal empowerment and agency. Mental illness is no longer something to recover from and fight against. It is an identity and a definition of life itself. There is no reason to seek "cures" (which of course is borderline nonexistent in mental health but thats a whole essay ifself), there is no reason to look to better ourselves. There is no reason to fight our internal struggles at a personal level, without feeling the need to informt every last member of the community whom we interact with. This is not only society's problem, but our peers'.

DeBoer picks up on this issue of self-disablement through identity creation.  

I do think that the endless search for new identity markers to validate people’s status as unique or, worse, to validate their suffering is a road that has no ending. I do think that all of these adolescents who have decided that they have rare and debilitating conditions like dissociative identity disorder are no doubt reacting to real pain and really need help. But I also think that they fail to understand that suffering itself is not a rare condition, but a universal one, and that attempting to represent theirs as deeper because it supposedly stems from very uncommon conditions will do nothing to make them feel better. And that is the point, always, with mental illness, not to publicize it or revel in it or derive identity from it but to manage it, to reduce pain and instability.

I blame not just the bizarre path identity politics have taken in the past decade but also a culture that still romanticizes mental illness as a quest against the constricting force of society’s norms, instead of a set of conditions that cause immense misery to those who suffer from them and their families. Mental illness is not dramatic or a somehow more authentic way to live, but mostly lonely, sad, and pathetic.

I agree with both DeBoer and the correspondent that encouraging anyone to seek solace and benefit by giving up their agency and autonomy by becoming a victim dependent on the charity of others is a catastrophic turn of events, both for the individual and for society.

I would make the additional point though that the search for "identity" itself is a pernicious game.  It sounds plausible and reasonable.  But to paraphrase Whitman, we are all multitudes.  There is no single mask, face, bit part, or role that any of us play all through our lives.  We live, we learn, we grow.  At any moment in time we are constituted of multiples of identities.

Identities are not important.  They are the intersect between self and others' perceptions.

What is important are goals and behaviors.  That is how we judge ourselves and how most people judge others.  It is immaterial how an individual self-identifies.  What matters are the patterns of their demonstrated values and behaviors.  

Are they kind, courteous, courageous, hard-working, persistent, goal-oriented, forgiving, reliable, etc.  Those things matter.  Identities do not.  Sending the young into a goose chase after identities wastes their time.  More importantly, it distracts from living an accountable life, learning hard and uncomfortable lessons, becoming the better person you probably want to be.  

Pursuit of vestigial and transient identities is a huge disservice to our future citizens because it relieves them of responsibility and makes them self-selected wards of the state.

Which European country is predominantly Buddhist?

It is wonderful that no matter how well rad, no matter how well educated, there is always still so much to be learned.  New facts by which to be delighted.  

I was perhaps 15-20 before I knew that there was a European country with a Muslim majority (Albania).  It has now been joined by Kosovo and possibly by Bosnia (50.1% Muslim).  

All the rest of Europe was/is Christian of various branches.  Or so I thought until today.

Via Ed West, I discover that there is another non-Christian country in Europe.  From Wikipedia, meet Kalmykia, the only predominantly Buddhist country in Europe.  Technically it is a plurality Buddhist with 48% of the population practicing Buddhism, the remaining 52% scattered across various religions.  

It is a republic within the Russian Federation as well.  So not technically a Buddhist majority, and not really an independent state.  But close enough on both accounts to be startling.  

Kalmykia (Russian: Калмыкия; Kalmyk: Хальмг, Xälmıg IPA: [xɑlʲˈməg]), officially the Republic of Kalmykia,[a] is a republic of Russia located directly north of the North Caucasus in Eastern Europe. The republic is part of the Southern Federal District, and borders Dagestan to the south and Stavropol Krai to the southwest; Volgograd Oblast to the northwest and north and Astrakhan Oblast to the north and east; Rostov Oblast to the west and the Caspian Sea to the east. Kalmykia is the only region in Europe where Buddhism is the predominant religion.

The republic covers an area of 76,100 square kilometres (29,400 square miles), with a small population of roughly 300,000 residents. The republic is home to the Kalmyks, a people of Mongol origin who are primarily of Buddhist faith. The capital of the republic is the city of Elista, which has gained an international reputation for international chess competitions.

What if we routinely make health recommendations which do not affect outcomes?

Interesting, if true and I have no reason to doubt its truthfulness.  From (Influenza) virus gonna virus by Alex Berenson.  The subtitle is "We increased flu shots over 15-fold between 1980 and 2020. You’ll never BELIEVE what happened next!"

The basic message is that we had, as a nation, a huge increase in the number of people being vaccinated for flu each year but no change in flu cases.  

Here are the annual deaths from flu.

Click to enlarge.  

Of course we need to look at the rate, not the raw number of deaths.  The US population was 180 million in 1960, 230 million in 1980 and it is 330 million in 2020.  

That still leaves us with a 15 fold increase in flu shots since 1980 and only an 83% increase in population.  83% increase in population versus a 1,500% increase in flu shots with no discernible impact in the absolute number of deaths.  

If the percent of the population getting flu shots increases dramatically but the death rate declines only a small amount, that's a pretty weak correlation.  Perhaps, ball-parking it, possibly about a 6% reduction in the death rate from flu given a massive increase in flu shots.

We don't have the data in this article to do a real estimation of efficacy but it has widely been known for a long time that it is very difficult to anticipate flu variants season-to-season and that the vaccines are low efficacy.  The risk return ratio for the elderly and otherwise morbidly afflicted is probably reasonably positive even with a low efficacy rate because the risks are so low.  For everyone else?  Not necessarily a solid equation.

Which reflects a longstanding weakness of the CDC, a refusal to measure costs and benefits in a rigorous fashion which would allow people to make informed choices based on age and health.  There's just the blanket admonition to get vaccinated.  

Given the comprehensive public health fiasco around Covid-19, it makes sense to revisit flu vaccines.  They are more traditional vaccines, they are more familiar.  But we have been as cavalier about cost risk ratios there as we were during Covid-19.

Hopefully the CDC learns but there are reasons to believe that institutional ass-covering might prevent that from happening.  

UPDATE:

And lickety-split, Berenson has an update addressing the issue of rates of infection.  The initial interpretation of the implications of the original data remain true when more complete data is provided. 

History

Parasite traces show ‘storage jars’ from #Roman villa in #Sicily were actually portable chamber pots. https://t.co/JuasMs3Obt #RomanArchaeology #Archaeology #ArcheologiaRomana #Archeologia pic.twitter.com/4Q4Wazn2Nb

— Roman Archaeology News (@RomArchable) February 11, 2022

 

An Insight

In other words, Obama and his party -- via the DNC -- really did have Trump's "wires tapped."

The media also owe Trump a massive apology. I'm sure they'll get right on that, and the story. https://t.co/bdwBAxIUxo

— Joel Pollak (@joelpollak) February 13, 2022

 

An Insight

Point me to the school DEI program that has made students of all backgrounds and beliefs happier, smarter, more intellectually curious, more forgiving, more empathetic, and more connected to each other on the basis of their shared humanity. Not a rhetorical request.

— WokeAtPrivateSchool (@WokePrivate) March 15, 2022

 

I see wonderful things

Heroes 🦸‍♀️ pic.twitter.com/nYWuY108JN

— CCTV_IDIOTS (@cctv_idiots) February 11, 2022

 

Offbeat Humor

 

Click to enlarge.

Data Talks

The Remdesivir Riddle.🧵

Why was this drug administered at the wrong time, at great financial and human cost, despite what logic and research dictated?

Walk with me through the mystery in this article, or simply scroll down for a thread to summarize.https://t.co/E78MJeU5AZ

— Alexandros Marinos (@alexandrosM) February 15, 2022

 

Cloud Path, 2017 by Michael Gregory (American, b. 1955)

Cloud Path, 2017 by Michael Gregory (American, b. 1955)

Click to enlarge.

History

This 1st c. AD #Roman ointment jar is ground out of a block of transparent *rock crystal*, and fitted with a gold cap and a finely braided gold chain to allow it to be hung up. Only the wealthiest woman could have afforded this for fragrant ointments and essences. pic.twitter.com/Z2HJTVrWWU

— Chapps (@chapps) February 10, 2022

 

An Insight

The "experts" who have devalued our currency to the tune of trillions of dollars didn't see inflation coming, didn't expect the actions undertaken would disrupt labor markets and supply chains, and now are selling that they know *exactly* what to do next.

— Carol Roth (@caroljsroth) February 11, 2022

 

I see wonderful things

THIS! 👇 100 times THIS https://t.co/hBi0oG6AuV

— Eduard Habsburg (@EduardHabsburg) February 11, 2022

 

Offbeat Humor

pic.twitter.com/SCJ5ZWTe8Q

— Bob Moran (@bobscartoons) February 14, 2022

 

Electric stories from the 1860s

Via Ann Althouse.

Double click to enlarge.

Data Talks

Tax inequality: only 11% of the 282 million phone calls the @IRSnews received last year were answered, but you could pay a private company just $300 to jump the call line. And tax accountants working for rich clients most definitely did: value of time, my friend. https://t.co/Czz0UWV3oA

— Ioana Marinescu (@mioana) February 15, 2022

 

Relaxation and reverie after the meal by Marcel Rieder (French, 1862 -1942)

Relaxation and reverie after the meal by Marcel Rieder (French, 1862 -1942)

Click to enlarge.

For "believing" does not to him mean "taking for granted," but rather "trusting in the guidance" of accepted values.

From Wolfgang Pauli.  Statements after the Solvay Conference of 1927, as quoted in Physics and Beyond (1971) by Werner Heisenberg.

At the dawn of religion, all the knowledge of a particular community fitted into a spiritual framework, based largely on religious values and ideas. The spiritual framework itself had to be within the grasp of the simplest member of the community, even if its parables and images conveyed no more than the vaguest hint as to their underlying values and ideas. But if he himself is to live by these values, the average man has to be convinced that the spiritual framework embraces the entire wisdom of his society. For "believing" does not to him mean "taking for granted," but rather "trusting in the guidance" of accepted values. That is why society is in such danger whenever fresh knowledge threatens to explode the old spiritual forms. The complete separation of knowledge and faith can at best be an emergency measure, afford some temporary relief. In western culture, for instance, we may well reach the point in the not too distant future where the parables and images of the old religions will have lost their persuasive force even for the average person; when that happens, I am afraid that all the old ethics will collapse like a house of cards and that unimaginable horrors will be perpetrated. In brief, I cannot really endorse Planck's philosophy, even if it is logically valid and even though I respect the human attitudes to which it gives rise.

Einstein's conception is closer to mine. His God is somehow involved in the immutable laws of nature. Einstein has a feeling for the central order of things. He can detect it in the simplicity of natural laws. We may take it that he felt this simplicity very strongly and directly during his discovery of the theory of relativity. Admittedly, this is a far cry from the contents of religion. I don't believe Einstein is tied to any religious tradition, and I rather think the idea of a personal God is entirely foreign to him. But as far as he is concerned there is no split between science and religion: the central order is part of the subjective as well as the objective realm, and this strikes me as being a far better starting point.

History

Hittite / Hattian ceremonial symbols. The Hittite Sun Disk or Hittite Sun Course is an ancient Anatolian symbol dating back to the 20th century BC. The symbol belongs to the Hattis from the pre-Hittite period. The Sun Disk was used in ceremonies by Hattians about 4.000 years ago. pic.twitter.com/5nNyASyOZc

— Archaeology & Art (@archaeologyart) February 11, 2022

 

An Insight

One of a handful of central truths about the world we now live in. https://t.co/HpkwSNRRq4

— Charles Murray (@charlesmurray) February 11, 2022

 

In an uncertain world, clear and trusted communication becomes especially important

From "With nine ad-libbed words at the end of a 27-minute speech, Biden created an unwanted distraction to his otherwise forceful remarks by calling for Russian President Vladimir Putin to be pushed out of office." by Ann Althouse.  

Biden gives a speech in Warsaw and makes a final statement at the end which undermines what seems to have been an otherwise strong speech.  He called for regime change in Russia.  Everyone immediately saw the implication and there was a rapid scrambling to interpret the remark, confirm its import and back-peddle it depending on the parties involved.  

The White House position is that it was an inadvertent ad lib by Biden.  Althouse is skeptical.

Watching the video, I can't understand the basis for labeling the statement "ad-libbed." Biden seems to be reading a speech, a bit robotically and on the edge of stumbling, and he slows down a bit and gets quite emphatic. He seems to build up toward that conclusion and fully intend it as a conclusion. I don't see how it's "an unwanted distraction to... otherwise forceful remarks." It's delivered in a manner that is more forceful than the surrounding remarks.

But how could it have been deliberately scripted? Some White House official — who? — reacted almost immediately and tried to make it go away with an incredibly lame argument that Biden just meant that "Putin cannot be allowed to exercise power over his neighbors or the region."

So, the evidence that it was "ad-libbed" is merely that unnamed associates of the President are saying that after the fact. The WaPo writers assist the White House:

Biden’s line was not planned and came as a surprise to U.S. officials, according to a person familiar with the speech who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive situation.

It is an interesting question in a digital and instantaneous world, how might we know whether it was an ad lib or not?  Althouse points out that as a performance, there were no tells or context suggesting that the final statement was discontinuous from the rest.   

If that is the case, then the only evidence that it was an unplanned ad lib would be a comparison between the pre-speech text and the speech as delivered.  We are down to the issue whether anyone can trust that any White House released text which is released now is in fact the actual text as it was intended.  We can only resolve the dispute if there is a text with or without the incendiary addition which is acceptably time stamped.  

It used to be, and I suppose still is on occasion, that texts of major speeches were released in advance or in concert with the speech in order to circumvent any such missteps as these.  I wonder if that no longer happens at all or perhaps only happens sporadically.  Was there any such pre-release in this case and, if the offending policy change is in the prerelease text, will it be shared by the mainstream media.

I acknowledge the legitimacy of Althouse's argument this is so significant a departure from long-standing policy that I doubt it was in the speech.  I accept that it was a poorly considered ad lib by Biden.

On the other hand, he has always been particularly gaff-prone and especially in his dotage.  And seemingly especially with regard to Ukraine.  It was barely six or eight weeks ago when Biden was in trouble for seemingly providing Putin with a green light to conduct a small scale incursion.  

[As an aside, I had to go to DuckDuckGo to find that video.  Using the exact same search phrase, Google Search did not provide much response whereas DuckDuckGo had precisely the videos and articles I recalled.]

Does this administration support regime change in Russia.  No idea but the fact that the President is widely seen to be losing his cognitive grip makes it especially and increasingly difficult to discern between black letter policy, trial balloons and mere slips of the tongue.  

ADDENDUM:

I did find one Althouse's commenters amusing.

Kevin said...

For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power

Biden is just repeating what he hears coming from outside the Oval Office.

3/27/22, 8:12 AM

 

I see wonderful things

World's Largest Ammonite: Parapuzosia seppenradensis is the largest known species of ammonite. It lived during the Late Cretaceous period. https://t.co/em60tarFT9 pic.twitter.com/Fau0rlizrV

— Ancient Origins (@ancientorigins) February 8, 2022

 

Offbeat Humor

Academic writing pic.twitter.com/gZT5xkVZm6

— Dr Fleur Meddens (@fleurmeddens) February 4, 2022

 

Data Talks

New study shows lead in water causes higher levels of juvenile delinquency https://t.co/AcQ1NcMU22 pic.twitter.com/znrnZ4pCYU

— Kevin Drum (@kdrum) February 15, 2022

 

Two arguments that are plausible but wrong

Periodically, and by periodically I mean almost daily, one is reminded that the mainstream media is paid based on panic, not based on the purveyance of accurate news.  

With the newly implemented sanctions regime on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, I have seen numerous headlines and articles to the effect that The US, by supporting and leading such sanctions, has put the US Dollar as a reserve currency at immediate risk.  There are many benefits (and burdensome obligations) which go with being the global reserve currency so there is always a legitimate argument to be had whether the US Dollar as the global reserve currency is, net, a good or bad thing for individual Americans and for the American economy at large.  

I am pretty strongly inclined towards the positive net benefit camp, but acknowledge the legitimacy of the argument.

But the idea that global sanctions against Russia are likely to threaten the US Dollar reserve currency status in the near term is near absurd.  Even the longer term threat seems, on balance, vestigial.  But that doesn't stop all the panicky headlines worried about that possible outcome.

This reminds me of the argument advanced in, what, the New York Times?, a few months ago that increasing inflation was not a bad thing because increasing inflation would lead to rising salaries.

An argument so bad it isn't even wrong (Pauli).  When efforts like this are advanced in the mainstream media as viable arguments, those who actually understand the topic are left in a dilemma.  With an argument so bad it's not even wrong, you can't simply expose the logical fallacy or provide the refuting empirical data.  You have to educate on the fundamental and reframe the argument so that it comports with logic and empirical reality.  That's a lot of work for an argument that is not even wrong.

In the case of the arguments about the US Dollar reserve currency status, it is very easy to come up with imaginary argument for why everyone should panic and laborious to refute it.  Consequently, the mainstream media has a lot of panic porn and much less actual empirical and logical arguments.

A situation which has fueled the boom at Substack.  

In this instance, the first strong refutation I have seen is from Sanctions on Russia Won't End the Dollar's Reserve Currency Status by Joseph Politano.  The subheading is The Dollar is the Center of the Global Economy, and Will Remain that Way.  His is a strong argument.  I would hedge a little more and be a little less categorical but I think he is right.

In general, the arguments that sanctions will end or seriously damage the dollar’s reserve currency status fall into one of two camps. The first camp is what I would call the “institutional trust” argument, and the second camp is what I would call the “commodity money” argument.

I think there is a third camp, the "complex systems" argument.  Any complex system (large, many loosely coupled systems, dynamic, evolving, subject to log effects, etc.) under stress is subject to unpredictable cascade events.  It is inherent.  Any shock to the system has the capacity to subvert the system owing to unknown and unpredictable interactions, but there is little that can be done about that other than to make it as resilient and adaptive as possible.

That is neither here nor there, though.  Politano lays out the historical and empirical case why neither the "institutional trust" nor the "commodity money" carry much weight.  

The regrettable thing is the mainstream media is carrying all the hysteria arguments to create panic and the reasoned and informed refutations occur in the much harder to find corners of blogs, and substack, and individual Twitter accounts.  

Read the whole thing.

Hollyhock Farm, 1931 by Peder Mork Monsted (Danish, 1859 - 1941)

Hollyhock Farm, 1931 by Peder Mork Monsted (Danish, 1859 - 1941)

Click to enlarge.

History

Egyptian Bronze Figure of a Nubian Woman, c. 711-600 BC.

Los Angeles County Museum. #AncientArt pic.twitter.com/arGQhJ1HAO

— Digital Maps of the Ancient World (@DigitalMapsAW) February 10, 2022

 

An Insight

Whoever claims the right to redistribute the wealth produced by others is claiming the right to treat human beings as chattel. - Ayn Rand

— Cerebral Wisdom (@CerebralWisdom) February 11, 2022

I see wonderful things

Amazing Physics pic.twitter.com/XxdwXAVkOr

— Amazing Physics (@amazing_physics) February 14, 2022

 

Offbeat Humor

Here once the embattled truckers parked
And honked the horn heard round the world.

— wretchardthecat (@wretchardthecat) February 11, 2022

 

Sander’s Lunch Counter Woodard Avenue, Detroit, 1955 by Bill Rauhauser

Sander’s Lunch Counter Woodard Avenue, Detroit, 1955 by Bill Rauhauser

Click to enlarge.

Data Talks

pic.twitter.com/8BJKuQd2iY

— PTSDGuts (@PTSDGuts2) February 14, 2022

 

Heh

Some laughs are inexplicable.

Double click to enlarge.

And

 

Double click to enlarge.

General losses are seven times higher than to be expected.

We now seem to be up to seven Russian generals killed in action during the first month of their invasion of Ukraine.  I  have read multiple places that there are an estimated 20 generals involved in the theater but I have seen no source for that number and have no idea whether that is true.  If so, they would have lost 35% of their generals in one month of fighting.

Losing seven generals sounds excessive but given that we don't seem to be certain how many generals are actually involved, is there another way of estimating the relevance of this attrition?  Is it as bad as it seems?

In World War II, ignoring suicides and transportation accidents and the likes, the US lost 22 generals (or naval equivalents) in combat conditions.  In total, there were some 1,110 serving generals during the war.  I cannot find an estimate of how many generals there are currently in the Russian army.

However, we can translate this into a rate metric.  World War II lasted 45 months for the US.  We had 13.5 million men under arms in all theaters of war around the globe.  We lost a general to hostile action every two months of the war.  

Russia has lost seven in a single month.  They are losing generals at a rate fourteen times greater than the US did in World War II.  

OK.  That does seem significant.

Attack at Fromelles

From Attack at Fromelles, Wikipedia.

The Attack at Fromelles (French pronunciation: ​[fʁɔmɛl], Battle of Fromelles, Battle of Fleurbaix or Schlacht von Fromelles) 19–20 July 1916, was a military operation on the Western Front during the First World War. The attack was carried out by British and Australian troops and was subsidiary to the Battle of the Somme.[a] General Headquarters (GHQ) of the British Expeditionary Force (BEF) had ordered the First Army (General Charles Munro) and Second Army (General Herbert Plumer) to prepare attacks to support the Fourth Army on the Somme, 50 mi (80 km) to the south, to exploit any weakening of the German defences opposite. The attack took place 9.9 mi (16 km) from Lille, between the Fauquissart–Trivelet road and Cordonnerie Farm, an area overlooked from Aubers Ridge to the south. The ground was low-lying and much of the defensive fortification by both sides consisted of building breastworks, rather than trenches.

The operation was conducted by XI Corps (Lieutenant-General Richard Haking) of the First Army with the 61st (2nd South Midland) Division and the 5th Australian Division, Australian Imperial Force (AIF) against the 6th Bavarian Reserve Division, supported by the two flanking divisions of the German 6th Army. Preparations for the attack were rushed, the troops involved lacked experience in trench warfare and the power of the German defence was significantly underestimated, the attackers being outnumbered 2:1. The advance took place in daylight, on a narrow front, against defences overlooked by Aubers Ridge, with German artillery on either side free to fire into the flanks of the attack. Another attack by the 61st (2nd South Midland) Division early on 20 July was cancelled, after it was realised that German counter-attacks had already forced a retirement by the Australian troops to the original front line.

On 19 July, General Erich von Falkenhayn, head of Oberste Heeresleitung (OHL, the German army supreme headquarters) judged Fromelles to be the offensive he expected against the 6th Army. The attack gained no ground but inflicted some casualties; next day the failure was evident and a captured operation order from XI Corps revealed the limited nature of the operation. In 2012, a study of German records showed that no German division opposite XI Corps moved until four to nine weeks later; Falkenhayn sent divisions from the Souchez–Vimy area, 20 mi (32 km) south instead, which had been misinterpreted in earlier accounts. The attack was the début of the AIF on the Western Front and the Australian War Memorial described it as "the worst 24 hours in Australia's entire history". Of 7,080 BEF casualties, 5,533 were suffered by the 5th Australian Division; the Germans suffered 1,600–2,000 casualties and lost 150 prisoners.

The thief Pikamen, Guardsman of the temple of Amon, Overseer of the Herds of Amon, was then examined by beating with the stick.

I am frequently reminded at just how wonderful is the world we live in and how distinct from even a mere generation ago.  I saw this tweet.

# Thread
The best thing that I saw at the World Museum, Liverpool, today had to be this extraordinary ancient Egyptian papyrus document, c 1118 BCE, from Thebes, Egypt. 😮🤩 It records the confession of a thief who robbed the tomb of King Ramesses VI in the Valley of the Kings!! pic.twitter.com/9mmPkyrTq6

— Angela O'Brien (@GrecianGirly) March 24, 2022

In five minutes I am able to find a JSTOR account from The Great Tomb Robberies of the Ramesside Age. Papyri Mayer A and B. I. Papyrus Mayer A by T. Eric Peet, published in June 1915.  

In another couple of minutes I have the 1891 published account, Translation of hieratic papyri, Mayer A & B by Spiegelberg, Wilhelm, 1870-1930. 

Just a taste of a trial some three thousand years ago.  

In the first year of the reign of Rameses X, on the 15th of Mesore, on this day were brought to trial those who had committed theft in the tombs of the king, the mighty God, Rameses II, and in the temple of the king Sety I, which lies by the treasury of the temple of Rameses III. Namely those thieves, against whom the Prefect of Police Nessuamon had given information in the list of names ; for he had himself stood among them as they laid hands on the tombs.

As they were brought to trial, the rack was applied to their hands and feet, to make them give an exact account of the manner of their crime.

Here follow the names of the members of the Trial Commission: "Ranebmanachtu, Prefect of the City and Governor, Ramenmanachtu, Lord of the Treasury and of the Granaries, Yay,(3) Lord High Steward and Royal Seal Officer(*), Rameryamon, Fan-bearer to Pharaoh, Overseer of the Pa- lace, and Royal Seal-Officer, the Secretary of Pharaoh

The Trial. 

Pikamen,(5) one of the Overseers of the Herds of the god Amon, was brought forward. He was made to take oath by the name of the king that he would speak no untruth. They said to him: How didst thou go with those who were with thee, to commit this theft in the Royal tombs which lie by the treasury of Rameses III ? He said: I went with the priest Toschere "and five others," six in all. The Prefect of Police Nessuamon was brought forward. They said to him; In what way didst thou find these men ? He said: I heard that the men were going in haste to steal from this tomb. So I went thither and found these six men. Pikamen has told the truth. And I brought them to trial on that day.

The thief Pikamen, Guardsman of the temple of Amon, Overseer of the Herds of Amon, was then examined by beating with the stick. The bastinade was given upon his feet and hands. He swore: May I be put to death if I lie 1 I did exactly what I have told you. He reaffirmed it with his mouth, saying: I did what they did. I was with these six men, and I took an object and took possession of it.

The thief Nessumontu was brought forward. He was examined by beating with the stick. The bastinade was given upon his feet and hands. He swore: May I be put to death if I lie ! They said to liim : What was the manner of the theft which thou and thy companions committed in the tomb? He said: I went and found these men. I was the sixth; and I took away an object and took possession of it.

And so it continues with confessions and beatings.  Fascinating. A trial conducted recorded some three thousand years ago, translated some 130 years ago and at might fingertips in a mere few minutes of searching.

It is a wonderful world.

History

A truly remarkable find - An intact tub full of 1,800 year-old Roman face cream.

Found in London in a temple complex dedicated to Mars, it was made mostly of animal fat. The fingerprints of its owner can still be seen.

🏛️@MuseumofLondon#Classics #Roman #Archaeology #History pic.twitter.com/4kcKgPOIx7

— The Classical Compendium 🏛️ (@TheClassicalCo) February 8, 2022

 

An Insight

David Frum just deleted this tweet from 2020 accusing Ron DeSantis of “spreading the virus to half the country” by “refusing to close his state’s beaches.” We should respect that. It would be a shame if this tweet went viral and David had to defend what he said two years ago. pic.twitter.com/p5TklYSDlM

— Michael P Senger (@MichaelPSenger) February 11, 2022

 

I see wonderful things

Incredible fun pic.twitter.com/7Yae3K6zjq

— Science Club (@scienceClub01) February 18, 2022

 

Offbeat Humor

 

Click to enlarge.

Lady Day and Tax Day

An excellent article this morning, worth reading.  From Can there be forgiveness after Christianity? by Ed West.

In making his argument, he raises an issue which distracts me.  The connection between Christian tradition and paying taxes in the Spring.

Today is the Feast of the Annunciation, which as well as being the most important date in history for Christians, is also one of the most painted scenes in history (the picture illustrating this piece is by Henry Ossawa Tanner)

In England it was also once known as Lady Day, and until the 18th century was the start of the year. On this date tenants up and down the kingdom would travel to the lord’s manor to renew their contracts, and reaffirm what taxes aimed at grinding down the peasant’s will to live had to be paid (that’s why the tax year still starts at this time of year).

I’m a great believer in the idea that we lost something important with the abolition of the medieval calendar, and it’s psychologically very healthy to have a set of feasts and fasts, days for thinking of the dead, days for marking the boundaries of the community, and days for abstaining. (It’s a subject I’d like to turn into a book or piece one day, sort of like ‘How to live like a medieval peasant but without getting the plague’, although I’m not sure ‘coffee morning with the landlord day’ would suit everyone.)

The Feast of Annunciation is the announcement by the Archangel Gabriel that Marry, through immaculate conception, would give birth to God's son, Jesus.  

Over at Wikipedia, the connection between Lady Day and taxes is confirmed.

In England, Lady Day was New Year's Day (i.e. the new year began on 25 March) from 1155 until 1752, when the Gregorian calendar was adopted in Great Britain and its Empire and with it the first of January as the official start of the year in England, Wales and Ireland.[6] (Scotland changed its new year's day to 1 January in 1600.) A vestige of this remains in the United Kingdom's tax year, which ends on 5 April, or "Old Lady Day", i.e., Lady Day adjusted for the 11 "lost days" of the calendar change in 1752. Until this change Lady Day had been used as the start of the legal year but also the end of the fiscal and tax year. This should be distinguished from the liturgical and historical year.

As a year-end and quarter-day that conveniently did not fall within or between the seasons for ploughing and harvesting, Lady Day was a traditional day on which year-long contracts between landowners and tenant farmers would begin and end in England and nearby lands (although there were regional variations). Farmers' time of "entry" into new farms and onto new fields was often this day.  As a result, farming families who were changing farms would travel from the old farm to the new one on Lady Day. In 1752, the British empire finally followed most of western Europe in switching to the Gregorian calendar from the Julian calendar. The Julian lagged 11 days behind the Gregorian, and hence 25 March in the Old Style calendar became 5 April ("Old Lady Day"), which assumed the role of contractual year-beginning. (The date is significant in some of the works of Thomas Hardy, such as Tess of the d'Urbervilles and Far from the Madding Crowd, and is discussed in his 1884 essay "The Dorset Farm Labourer").

So Lady Day and Tax Day are connected historically in England.  How about the US?

Of course we did not have income tax until 1913, so Tax Day is much more modern an institution at the national level.  I have scanned several articles and none of them make the connection between Annunciation, Lady Day or Tax Day.  But the closeness in time frame suggests that even if not explicitly, there is some echo of ancient traditions between Tax Day and Lady Day.

By the way, West's article is about forgiveness.  Not taxes and Lady Day.  It is well worth a read.

Data Talks

Fellow academics, what is a powerful concept from your field that, if more people understood it, their lives would be better?

This paper surveyed every economist in Sweden and found the overwhelming choice in economics was "opportunity cost." The paper: https://t.co/O1QQROPIaE pic.twitter.com/zxTNemJ56v

— Ethan Mollick (@emollick) February 15, 2022

 

After the thunderstorm, 1879 by Arkhip Kuindzhi

After the thunderstorm, 1879 by Arkhip Kuindzhi

Click to enlarge.

The Lindy Effect

From Wikipedia, The Lindy Effect.

The Lindy effect (also known as Lindy's Law) is a theorized phenomenon by which the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things, like a technology or an idea, is proportional to their current age. Thus, the Lindy effect proposes the longer a period something has survived to exist or be used in the present, it is also likely to have a longer remaining life expectancy. Longevity implies a resistance to change, obsolescence or competition and greater odds of continued existence into the future. Where the Lindy effect applies, mortality rate decreases with time. Mathematically, the Lindy effect corresponds to lifetimes following a Pareto probability distribution.

The concept is named after Lindy's delicatessen in New York City, where the concept was informally theorized by comedians. The Lindy effect has subsequently been theorized by mathematicians and statisticians. Nassim Nicholas Taleb has expressed the Lindy effect in terms of "distance from an Absorbing barrier."

The Lindy effect applies to "non-perishable" items, those that do not have an "unavoidable expiration date". For example, human beings are perishable: most humans live for about 80 years. So the Lindy effect does not apply to individual human lifespan: it is unlikely for a 5-year-old human to die within the next 5 years, but it is very likely for a 70-year-old human to die within the next 70 years, while the Lindy effect would predict these to have equal probability.

Saham Toney - where there is a large pike in the mere.

In researching the Goffe family line, I come across Saham Toney, Norfolk, a village where Thomas Goffe was supposed to have been born in the late 1500s.  Looking for additional information about Saham Toney, I go to Wikipedia.  It is a village of some 1,500 souls in 680 homes.  Under the History section I discover about the most English village description possible.

There is evidence that Saham Toney was close to a significant Romano-British settlement. The Peddars Way footpath, partly using remaining Roman roads, passes close to the village.

The village derives part of its name from the 13-acre (53,000 m2) mere that is in the parish. The mere is well stocked with fish especially eels of two species, one noted for their delicious, and the other for their nauseous flavour, also one is of a peculiar shape. There are also large pike in the mere. The privately owned mere which is dangerous is thought to be as old as the last ice age. Access is by special permission of the owner only.

An Insight

Dog: my human feeds me, loves me & cares for me. He must be a god.
Cat: my human feeds me, loves me & cares for me. I must be a god.

— gadgie 🇨🇮 🇺🇦 (@gadgie3) February 11, 2022

 

I see wonderful things

Absolutely love this! A child's drawing from ancient Egypt!

2,000 years ago a little kid was learning to draw people (or maybe gods) on an old piece of pottery. Archaeologists just found it at Athribis, and isn't i just adorable?! pic.twitter.com/ccNwzvbFzv

— DigVentures Archaeology (@TheDigVenturers) February 8, 2022

 

If government buys you a coat—wrong coat, wrong price.

I don't believe I have seen this formulation before.  From What Went Wrong? 3/24 by Arnold Kling.

There is an argument that I believe is due to Milton Friedman, but I cannot find a source. It uses the example of buying a coat.

If you buy a coat for yourself, you pick the right coat for the right price

If someone else (a parent, perhaps) says that they will pay for any coat you choose, you pick the right coat for the wrong price (you spend more on a coat than you would using your own money).

If someone gives you a coat as a present, they pay the right price (what they are willing to spend) but get you the wrong coat (one you would not have picked for that price).

If government buys you a coat—wrong coat, wrong price.

Sententious - the word for our times

I am reading Ann Althouse's post this morning, "I’m fairly certain womenfolk everywhere saw themselves in that statement and felt something deep inside their souls." and come across what initially seems a faulty spelling.  The word is sententious which I assume is intended to be tendentious.  But I am wrong.  Sententious is its own word.

 

ten·den·tious

/tenˈdenSHəs/

adjective

expressing or intending to promote a particular cause or point of view, especially a controversial one.

"a tendentious reading of history"

versus

sen·ten·tious

/senˈten(t)SHəs/

adjective

given to moralizing in a pompous or affected manner.

"he tried to encourage his men with sententious rhetoric"