Saturday, September 30, 2023

Behavioral trait patience reduces cost of interest and societies preferring productivity select for patience.

From Selection, Patience, and the Interest Rate by Radoslaw Stefanski and Alex Trew.  From the Abstract:

The interest rate has been falling for centuries. The key to explaining this decline is increasing societal patience, driven by a process of natural selection. Three observations support this mechanism: patience varies across individuals, is inter-generationally persistent, and is positively related to fertility. To establish the importance of this channel, we introduce a dynamic, heterogeneous-agent model of fertility. The structure of our model enables us to use modern, micro level data to calibrate the historical distribution of patience. Our quantitative results match the centuries-long fall in the interest rate, highlighting the crucial role of selection in this historical, and ongoing, trend.

If this is saying what I think it is saying it makes me a little nervous.  I am interpreting this to mean that 

1)  The interest rate has been falling for centuries

2)  The behavioral trait of patience contributes to a lower interest rate

3)  The behavioral trait is heritable

4)  Productive societies select for the trait of patience.

Possibly a  Just So story.  Possibly directionally true.  Certainly plausible.

Plausible but unproven, I'd say.

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