Monday, January 10, 2022

The speed of the epidemic is so fast that policy interventions will have little impact.

From the IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) at the University of Washington, in their latest report.  A pretty key paragraph which has been readily apparent ever since we first became aware of Omicron in South Africa and which has also been steadily ignored.  Many (most?) authorities still seem to be playing the pantomime of being seen to be doing something.  Anything.  All the same kabuki theater of actions (mask mandates, lockdowns, school closures) that didn't work last time are being dusted off for one more performance.

Our alternative policy scenarios, including more rapid scale-up of boosters to all who have been previously vaccinated, increasing mask use to 80%, and vaccinating the partially hesitant, have only a small impact on the trajectory over the next 4 months. The speed of the epidemic is so fast that policy interventions will have little impact. In previous waves, the control strategy has been to control infection and thus reduce hospitalization and death. Given that there is little prospect of controlling infection, strategies need to focus on reducing harm in the vulnerable and minimizing disruption.
 

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