Saturday, January 29, 2022

Their analysis is neither demonstrably correct nor easily debunked

From The Rube Goldberg Fed, 1/29 by Arnold Kling.  He is talking about the role of the Fed in creating inflation but he has a line which is applicable to any contested argument on a complex topic with incomplete consensus of facts.

Their analysis is neither demonstrably correct nor easily debunked. What it shows, in my view, is that no one can predict with confidence the consequences of actions.

I have truncated his second sentence to emphasize the universality of his observation.  

I encounter this issue of "neither demonstrably correct nor easily debunked" all the time.  Sometimes it is a useful reminder that none of us have all the facts and therefore our respective conclusions are entirely dependent on our predicate assumptions.  Or that one of the two parties to the argument does not have all the facts.

What it highlights to me, especially with regards to complex, dynamic, interlocking but loosely coupled chaotic systems is the critical need for goodwill on the parties on both sides to get at the truth.  Absent that goodwill and the corresponding trust, the pursuit of truth becomes difficult if not impossible.  

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