Confidence is independent of accuracy

Well, there's a surprise.  Had you asked me what country was the largest gold producer in Africa, I would have answered with great confidence, South Africa.  It has major industrial production through large corporations and has been a major participant in the global market for more than a century.  

Sure, there are other producers.  Ghana's colonial name was, Gold Coast.  But my impression has been that in almost all other countries was that most or all the gold production was artisinal and therefore small scale.

Imagine my surprise.  From Gold is booming. So is the dirty business of digging it up in The Economist.  

Ghana, the largest gold producer on the continent, exemplifies Africa’s new gold rush. 

Ghana is the largest?  Well, so much for my confident answer.

My error was in associating artisanal and small scale with low aggregate volume.

The gold price has doubled since 2019, to a record high of more than $2,700 per troy ounce, promising higher margins for industrial miners but also encouraging more artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM). Nearly half of the roughly 1,000 tonnes of gold produced in Africa every year is mined in this way. 

Ghana produces some 125 tons of gold each year and most of it is artisanal or informal production whereas the 117 tons mined in South Africa is mostly large scale, corporate, formal mining.  

A reminder to stay cognitively humble.  Confidence in an answer is independent of accuracy in an answer.