Monday, December 11, 2023

A growing global trend toward state incapacity?

From Is Northern Ireland a Failed State? by Fergus McCullough.  

Certainly useful as a detailed update on the state of Northern Ireland.  But the length and comprehensiveness of State failure makes it an interesting catalyst for a different train of thought.

In general, whatever government service we are discussing, (education, policing, courts, transportation, roads, health, parks, environment, personal safety, economic security, economic growth, etc.) people assess government performance on five vectors, variously defined:  faster, cheaper, better, safer, more choice.  People want all of the five measures to be better for all of the services received (or expected).  Given that impossibility, government is the mechanism by which to arrive at trade-offs among the goals as well as policies to achieve the desired outcomes.  

We are accustomed to thinking about the macro forms of government which deliver (or not) the services demanded by people - parliamentary democracy, constitutional republics, monarchies, dictatorships, oligopolies, theocracies, Marxism (and derivatives), etc.

The litany of massive governmental failure listed by McCullough is striking.  But is it distinct to Northern Ireland?  Looking at the particulars, it is a mundane list of political or bureaucratic weakness and failure.  Failure of leadership, of moral convictions, or knowledge, of commitment to success on behalf of citizens.

Everywhere across the world we are seeing countries turn towards populism forty some years after the fall of the Berlin wall.  Plenty of time for western democracies and allies to have proven themselves effective at delivering both strategically and tactically for their citizens.  

The strategic scorecard is reasonably spotty but the tactical delivery of beneficial services to citizens seems increasingly beyond the capabilities of politicians and bureaucrats everywhere.  To the dismay of citizens everywhere.  

Delivery of traditional services is simply not that hard.  Changes in what citizens want and how they measure success might be challenging, but their just isn't that much of a challenge.  Worldwide we know how to build roads and bridges.  We know how to run schools.  We know how to stamp our corruption.  We know how to create an environment of personal safety through law and order.  

We know, but our politicians and bureaucrats for some reason simply are not committed to meeting the needs and interests of their citizens.

If this were one or two countries or regions where there was a mismatch between state capability and citizen expectations, that would be interesting but comprehendible.  But for the same pattern to show up so commonly in so many places is a real head scratcher.  

What is the underlying dynamic driving this observation?  Is it simply that increased prosperity loosens the tie between state and citizen or undermines the capability of political leaders and administrative bureaucrats?  I do not know.

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