Show me the data

A frustratingly intriguing piece from Donald Trump Followers Targeted by FBI as 2024 Election Nears by William M. Arkin.  A lot of work went into this and it does answer a couple of important questions.  For example, it become clear that indeed the FBI has been targeting Trump and Trump supporters for investigation.  

It is worth a read and too complex to exerpt.

But the article does not really address what to me has always seemed the most important issue.  An issue which is empirical.  If Trump supporters are indeed committing domestic crimes of terror, then by all means they, like any other such perpetrator, should be pursued by the FBI.

But how many acts of domestic terrorism have we experienced?  At all?  Especially ones not associated with foreign nationals or nationalized citizens.  Events like the Orlando night club shooting, the Fort Hood shooting, the San Benardino shooting, the Boston Marathon Bombing, all conducted by foreign nationals or naturalized citizens.

I have been hearing from the FBI and the mainstream media about domestic terrorism for years now with no obvious evidence that there is really a domestic terrorism threat of the nature being investigated.  The violent acts with which I am familiar almost always fall into three categories of mental illness, antisemitism, or racism.  None of those being politically motivated.  

So let's search for some sort of list of acts of domestic terrorism.  I am excluding normal acts of violence, protests, and the ilk.  I am looking for any acts of violence leading to multiple deaths or casualties undertaken in the name of any mainstream or widely supported cause.  I am explicitly excluding violence instigated by those subsequently determined to be mentally ill.

Compiled from Wikipedia:  List of incidents of political violence in Washington, D.C., Domestic terrorism in the United States.  I looked at all domestic terrorism events listed since 2000.  There are 30 incidents mentioned.  Missing are school shootings, and mass shootings not related to ideology.  

The challenges are obvious in terms of category definition as well as in terms of event categorization.  Was January 6th a domestic terrorist event.  Obviously not.  It was a political protest.  The only death was of a protestor.  The FBI has investigated and while it has supported extraordinary prosecutions, it has explicitly determined that it was not an insurrection (the absence of weapons being sort of a clue).  

Were the George Floyd protests domestic terrorism?  I would argue not but they were far more consequential in terms of deaths, injuries, and property destruction.  I can see why and how some might make the argument.  I just disagree.  

Was the Fort Hood shooting domestic terrorism or Islamic terrorism.  Arguments for both side.  

Perhaps most problematic of all is the overlap between mental illness and possible ideological extremism of whatever sort.  If someone has a history of mental illness and they start posting violent support of left or right, are their actions ideological or mental illness.  I am inclined to the latter but it is quite dependent on the evidentiary context which is sometimes weak.  

Across the thirty events there were 3,230 deaths and 7,370 injured.  

Out of the 30 events identified, none of them are Trump related domestic terrorism.  

Seven of the 30 events resulted in no deaths or injuries, raising the question whether they ought to included at all.  I have left them in.  

Of the 23 events, eight of them involved only one death, usually that of the perpetrator.  

Of the fifteen events which involved more than one death, eight involved more than nine deaths.

Of those eight incidents, four of them involved Islamic terrorism.  Those eight account for 3,188 deaths and the four which are Islamic terrorism account for 3,076.  Of the 30 domestic terrorism events since 2000, seven are at least in part inspired by Islamic terrorism and account for 95% of all domestic terrorism deaths in those twenty years.

Three are inspired by white racist ideation, two by black nationalism, four by antisemitism.

There is only clear and explicit domestic terrorism event and that from the left against the Congressional baseball game (1 dead, six wounded).  

Five of the 30 were carried out by individuals with explicitly documented histories of mental illness.    

It is hard to see any pattern of explicit right-wing domestic terrorism, particularly not by Republicans or Trump supporters.  

The claim has been circulating for more than five years that there is a domestic terrorism threat from Trump supporters and their ilk.  From the public record, that does not seem to be true.  If it is not true, then why the well-documented FBI effort to spy on American citizens for their political beliefs?  

It is both disturbing and inexplicable.