Monday, August 7, 2023

The horrible truth becomes better documented

A striking example of academia not saying what needs to be said.  From Prevalence and Risk Factors for School-Associated Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by Sandra B. Nelson, Caitlin M. Dugdale, and Isaac Ravi Brenner, et al.  From the paper:

Findings  In this cohort study of 10 Massachusetts school districts, the secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in schools was 2.2% during the 2020-2021 school year and 2.8% in the fall of 2021. Factors associated with transmission in schools changed over time, although a greater social vulnerability index was associated with transmission in both periods.

Meaning  These findings suggest that although transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in schools was uncommon, ongoing surveillance efforts may be essential to ensure that both targeted resources and mitigation practices remain optimal and relevant for disease prevention.

That sounds like there may be an issue here.  However, from Kids almost NEVER transmitted Covid in schools, a major new study shows by Alex Berenson.  The subheading is The research should end what's left of the pathetic rear-guard effort to defend school closures - or any mitigation measures like making kids wear masks.  A more clear summary of the findings.

Children almost never passed Covid infections in school, a study published Friday reveals.

In fall 2021, in four Massachusetts school districts with 18,000 children, researchers found 44 potential cases of in-school transmission.

You read that right.

18,000 students. 34 schools. Four months. And 44 Covid infections - including no infections of teachers or other staff members.

Throughout 2020 and 2021, as parents pressed with increasing urgency to reopen classrooms, teachers unions and Democratic politicians warned in-school Covid transmission would lead to waves of death. “Teachers are so worried about returning to school that they’re preparing wills,” CNN infamously wrote on July 16, 2020.

In reality, schools were among the safest possible places for students and teachers during Covid, this study suggests.

We already knew by late 2020 from studies in places like Sweden, France, and Spain that schools were very unlikely as vectors of spread of Covid-19, either among students or faculty.  The empirical evidence was inconsistent with the policies being adopted.  

One can find, sometimes legitimate, reasons to discount studies from other countries with different populations, different diets, different cultural norms, different policies, etc.  But the evidence was already accumulating in the US, if even only anecdotally, that the fear of schools as a source of contagion was misplaced.  

This study is late and replicative of knowledge already established elsewhere, but it is an American study in an American context and therefore usefully adds to the emerging confirmation of what was suspected all along in many quarters.  The public health concerns about schools as a vector of spread were always unfounded and misplaced.

School closures were never necessary, there never was an evidentiary basis for closing them, and the closures had massive health and education consequences which have only begun to come into focus in the past twelve months.  

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