The economic story of Jamaica

From Jamaica Is Not Doing Ok by Rasheed Griffith.  The subheading is A Reply to Noah Smith. 

An interesting article throughout.  Smith contends that 

And there’s one big reason to be optimistic about Jamaica: The enduring strength of its institutions. In an age of advancing autocracy, Jamaica remains resolutely democratic, scoring higher than the U.S. on some international measures. It’s an island (heh) of political stability in the region.

Griffith argues instead that the national institutions in Jamaica are in bad shape, are much worse than some local comparisons such as Barbados.  Further, that the absence of growth in Jamaica between 1815 and 1945 and since 1967 is explained by the inhospitable institutions.  

Interesting through out and lots of nuggets of information.

If you grew up in the Caribbean you know well that Barbados and Jamaica are similar in many ways but polar opposites in most social tendencies. This should give you pause when thinking they have “virtually identical” institutions. But even if Barbados made different (more prudent) macroeconomic policies than Jamaica would the question not reduce to why were Barbados’ institutions more capable of opening up space for more prudence policies?

[snip]

Rabid violence continues to force Jamaica into a convulsion. As recently as December 2022 the Prime Minister of Jamaica declared a state of emergency because of the perpetual killings. According to several indices, Jamaica captures the haunting accolade of the highest homicide rate in the world.

[snip]

The plantation owners and the British elite in general bracketed Jamaica as an exceptionally dangerous place with a reputation for constant slave rebellions. It is therefore not surprising that the British elite did not have any urge to stay in the country long-term. For those familiar with Jane Austen novels you would recall that in Mansfield Park Sir. Thomas left England to visit his plantation in Antigua (in the Caribbean) because it was being mismanaged and he wanted to set the affairs in order himself. This is a prime example of absentee ownership, which was also prevalent in Jamaica.

Whereas in Barbados, there was a single slave revolt during the entire period of slavery. Barbados was much adored by the British Elite who stayed on the island long-term. A curious history that is little known in the US is that the original settlers of the original colony of Carolina came from Barbados. The usual impression is that they came directly from England but no. There is a great museum in Charleston, South Carolina that details the states origins in Barbados. This is why the plantation system there was much more like Barbados. Several of the main Carolina plantation owners also owned properties in Barbados.

[snip]

Shockingly, data suggests that more slaves were brought to Jamaica than the entirety of the rest of North America.

[snip]

Moreover, the slave population of Jamaica never became self-sustaining. The extra brutality of the plantations in Jamaica is thought to be based on the fact that the plantation owners were constantly absent and the persons put to manage the estate on short-term contracts were much more vicious to the slaves compared. Consequently, the slave compliment needed to be replenished more often. Shockingly, data suggests that more slaves were brought to Jamaica than the entirety of the rest of North America.

So then, the culture that formed in colonial Jamaica was constantly infused with new African affinities situated in a hyper-brutal environment with an elite class that was almost wholly absent.

However, in Barbados, the locally-born slave population (“creoles”) exceeded the African-born population a few decades after the slave system was started. Indeed the only other place in the British Empire where this occurred was the US South. This drastic demographic difference with Jamaica would likely have a long-lasting institutional effect. The transition from colony to independent country failed to hit the “refresh” button.

[snip]

A good way to determine if a country is doing ok is the net migration rate. Every year since 1952 net migration has been outwards from Jamaica. With a population of around 2.8 million in 2021 living in Jamaica, some estimates suggests an equal number are living outside the country. In 1975 Jamaica’s population reached around 2 million. This was roughly the same as Singapore in the same year. But in 2021 the population of Singapore grew to around 5.4 million.