The dog is not barking

Negative space is an important art concept as is its epistemic equivalent.   The signal that is not there is sometimes the important signal.  Which is what came to mind when I saw this Axios headline.  From Sweeping reporting failures may compromise the FBI’s 2021 crime data by Axios Local.  It was actually the map which got my attention.  

Months of 2021 FBI crime data reported in the U.S., by agency

Agencies covering populations of 10,000 or more; Sized by population

 

Click to enlarge.

The yellow dots are jurisdictions which have not reported any crime data to the FBI.  Blue have reported 12 months of data.  Green have provided partial data.  

Historically, about 85% of jurisdictions report their all data.  This year, apparently, only 40% have done so.  

Eyeballing the map, there is an obvious pattern with an obvious exception.  There are seven states with striking levels of non-reporting.  California, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Illinois, and Maryland.  Six states which are solidly Democrat (California, New York, Maryland, Illinois, New Jersey, and perhaps Pennsylvania) and one Republican state (Florida).  

Among those Democrat states, all six were reasonably strong endorsers of police defunding, decarceration, and bail reform.  The major cities in those six states have separately all reported horrific increases in crime.  

You can't help but leap to the conclusion that the crime results are so bad that the six Democratic states of California, Pennsylvania, New York, Maryland, New Jersey, and Illinois are hiding their results before the November elections.  

The only refutation to the hypothesis would be if the information were made available and they did not show any significant increase in crime from the rest of the nation.  

Given that concerns about crime are already a mainstay of this particular election cycle, this certainly seems like Sherlock Holmes's dog that did not bark in the night.