It is hard to keep track of the fate of all the politically charged legal investigations of former president Trump. Many of them seemed facially specious and solely based on the politics of revenge. Some seemed so baseless that it appeared that there was an effort to make the legal process the punishment even if no laws had been broken.
On the other hand, he made his financial fortune in real estate in Manhattan, a financial and ethical environment of dubious purity. From his very first serious runs for president in 2015, I assumed there was a more than non-zero chance that he would come a cropper on at least some legal technicality.
His opponents were ravenously motivated. If there was anything serious to be found, they would find it. However, the more frequently and continuously that those legal attacks failed to bear fruit, the more it felt like there was no legal merit to any of them.
All this is prompted by the headlines yesterday, from one of Trump's more powerful political opponents, The New York Times and among those most motivated to curtail his political future, Likelihood of Trump Indictment in Manhattan Fades as Grand Jury Wraps Up. The NYT had three reporters writing up this conclusion, Ben Protess, Jonah E. Bromwich, William K. Rashbaum and Lananh Nguyen. The subheading is The Manhattan district attorney is continuing to investigate Donald J. Trump, but knowledgeable people say charges are unlikely to occur in the foreseeable future, if ever.
Reading the article, it seems far more like a certainty that no charges will be brought than a mere likelihood, but that is a judgment call.
The two Congressional investigations to impeach him foundered. The Robert Mueller investigation came back without charges and substantially an exoneration of the serious charges. I think, at this point, the FBI has cleared him of any of the January 6th charges. It seems like there were other investigations that have faded away. The New York DA appears to be abandoning their case. The New York Attorney General is still pursuing civil charges equivalent to the criminal charges pursued by Manhattan DA. It is unclear the extent that that might succeed if the criminal charges fail.
The congressional committee pursuing further charges against Trump rocks along but that has always been purely political and seemed much more of a fishing expedition than a real legal investigation. I have not seen much pertinent evidence arise from them that was not already known. It seems that it also will end up being a damp squib as well. Especially if Republicans end up retaking Congress at the mid-term elections.
Trump has always been a magnet for controversy and later in his political life a magnet for politically motivated lawsuits. A priori there appeared reason to believe that there would almost have to be some legal irregularity which would trip him up, having made his fortune in New York real estate.
But all these many years later, there is still nothing. Possibly that is due to excellent lawyering. Possibly he is more innocent than Caesar's wife. It seems most likely though, that the legal process has been abused for political gain and that there was never any there there. And while while his political opponents were swinging for the legal bleachers with extravagant and exaggerated overcharging, they probably gave up the opportunity to catch him on more minor technicalities which might have done him some actual political harm.
Just a guess.
UPDATE: Is Trump the cleanest real estate developer and the cleanest politician in America? by Neo. On the same issue and with interesting comments.
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