There is no moral value in lying for good causes

I do exactly the same thing as I encounter apocalyptic claims every day.  Just an order of magnitude estimation based on data.  It is astonishing how rarely the claim stands up to the facts.

When I read such stats, I make a back-of-the-envelope calculation to get a sense of it.

In 2018, there were 15,498 murders in the US [FBI], so expected ~10849 when 70% of year has passed.

So 21 murders represent ~0.19% murders, probably less than proportional to population. https://t.co/MP7Pug6rRr pic.twitter.com/ldIR0wmKkJ

— Inquisitive Bird (@Scientific_Bird) September 15, 2020

The more and more marginalized the group being advocated for, i.e. the smaller the population, the more likely it is that there is a large claim and no empirical basis for the claim.

This happens so frequently that you are left with the jaundiced notion that either advocates are woefully incapable of empiricism or they are deliberate deceivers. 

None of which actually undermines the moral outrage that there are 21 murders.  By erroneously or deceitfully making false claims though, it distracts from that point.