Numerical reality checks

I like the quantification of impressions.  It provides the opportunity to test our otherwise fallible inclination to see patterns where sometimes there are none.  From Clammed up: Trump takes 700% more questions than Biden in one month by Paul Bedard.

One impression of the past couple of months is that Joe Biden has been hiding in his basement, doing few interviews, answering few questions and otherwise been kept out of the political hurly burly.  Judging by the occasions of slurred speech and lost trains of thought, that seems a reasonable strategy on the part of his handlers.  On the one hand it does reinforce the impression of decline, or lack of enthusiasm on the part of the candidate, or incapacity.  On the other it does reduce the number of gaffes and embarrassments.

So far it seems to have been working.  His lead is declining as we near the election but he is still ahead. 

But for how much longer?  It has been a tactical benefit but I am not sure that it isn't a failing strategy.

But first things first.  Is the impression that he is hiding out and not engaging with the press even real?  No matter how obvious a fact can seem, it is always worth testing.

In this case, by whatever measure, the numbers are on the side of the impression.

A review of interviews, transcripts, and videos shows that since mid-July, Trump has taken 635 questions from the media and Biden just 80, an 8-1 divide.

During a 28-day stretch from July 19 to Aug. 15, Trump took questions on 24 days, skipping just two weekends, while Biden took questions on 13 days.

Trump answered more than 8 times as many questions from the press as Biden and engaged with the press twice as often as Biden.  

It all smacks of a reverse Rose Garden Strategy.  A Basement Strategy as it were.  In the 1976 campaign, Jimmy Carter complained of incumbent Gerald Ford conducting a Rose Garden Strategy.  Carter's argument was that Ford was using the majesty and platform of the White House Rose Garden to dominate the election news without really campaigning among the American people.  

Four years later, Carter suffered his own Rose Garden strategy.  With the taking of American hostages by the Iranian regime, Carter was confined to the White House through much of the 1980 campaign.  A campaign Reagan famously won 44 states to Carter's 6; 489 Electoral College votes to Carter's 49; 44 million popular votes to Carters 35 million.

I have a strong recollection of Carter committing to remain in the White House during the campaign until the hostages were released by Iran.  A policy which backfired when the negotiations stretched on throughout the entire campaign.  In researching this post, in ten minutes of googling, I can find no reference to what I recall as being one of the seminal mistakes of the campaign.

Did Carter never commit to remaining in the White House while the hostages were held?  Am I simply misremembering?  Am I using the wrong search terms?  Seems a peculiar mis-recollection and an even more peculiar situation if I am recalling correctly but search engines are not returning that fact.

Just another example of always checking the facts, though this recollection is going to need a deeper dive.

The point is that Rose Garden strategies have a mixed record.  And non-campaigning strategies such as hiding in basements are not an innovation with great prospects.  The only thing similar in recent time was John McCain suspending his campaign against Obama in 2008 in order to rush back to the Capitol to deal in the Senate with the consequences of the financial crisis.  

It was not a strategy of hiding but of not campaigning and I think it is pretty broadly recognized as a major error in his campaign.  It may not have caused his loss but it certainly contributed to it.