Everywhere in contact with chance

Laurence Gonzales in Deep Survival. Page 121.

Carl von Clausewitz introduced a related concept in On War, published posthumously in 1833. His text has been a classic guide for generals ever since and is still taught at military schools around the world. Clausewitz writes of "countless minor events" that "conspire to decrease efficiency, and one always falls short of the goal. These difficulties happen over and over again, and cause a sort of friction." He's talking about an army in the field, which is not altogether different from groups or people in the wilderness, where the qualities Clausewitz identified as ideal in a general can come in handy.

Clausewitz observed, "The military machine . . . is basically very simple, which makes it seem easy to manage." Again, some simple systems are capable of complex behavior.

But we must remember that no part of it consists of a single piece, that everything is made up of individuals, each of whom still has his own friction at every turn. . . . The battalion is always made up of a number of men, the least significant of whom may very well bring things to a halt or cause things to go awry. . . . Therefore, this terrible friction . . . is everywhere in contact with chance, with consequences that are impossible to calculate, for the very reason that they are largely elements of chance.

And most important for those undertaking such challenges as nature presents, the army general "must have knowledge of friction in order to overcome it, where possible, and in order not to expect a level of precision in his operation that simply cannot be achieved owing to this very friction."