When an ideology demands outcomes that reality will never produce, its followers must choose between two paths: Admission of error or lie

From Why Radical Ideologies Rise—and Why They Always Collapse by Michael Magoon.  The subheading is A Psychological Framework for Explaining the Rise and Self-Destruction of Radical Ideologies.  An interesting argument across the whole essay.  

Moral Corruption as a Structural Requirement

When an ideology demands outcomes that reality will never produce, its followers must choose between two paths:

1. admit the ideology is wrong, or

2. lie.

Radical movements always choose lying. Lying becomes a moral duty, a sign of loyalty, even an act of revolutionary virtue.

At first the lies are small—uncomfortable facts minimized, predictions overstated, enemies exaggerated. But as the gap between ideology and reality grows, so does the pressure to falsify. This is especially true when the ideology has become institutionalized. Bureaucrats must produce data that validates doctrine. Scientists must reshape experiments to fit ideological expectations. Teachers must instruct students in falsehoods. Citizens must affirm statements they know are untrue.

Moral corruption and dishonesty becomes the operating system of the movement.

This is not primarily because the people involved are evil or pathological—though some are. It is because the Visionary’s worldview cannot function without continuous distortion of reality. A false map requires false reporting, false measurement, and false behavior. No amount of sincerity can overcome physics, agriculture, demography, economics, or human psychology.

Thus the corruption is not a side effect. It is the natural consequence of aligning society with a mental delusion.

 

Coincidentally, I read earlier this morning, The end of the climate cult by Matt Ridley.  Subheading is It has been a long, lucrative ride.  In it he has a very partial list of some of the massive scare campaigns in the past few decades.  Emphasis added:

It has been a long, lucrative ride. Predicting the eco-apocalypse has always been a profitable business, spawning subsidies, salaries, consulting fees, air miles, best-sellers and research grants. Different themes took turns as the scare du jour: overpopulation, oil spills, pollution, desertification, mass extinction, acid rain, the ozone layer, nuclear winter, falling sperm counts. Each faded as the evidence became more equivocal, the public grew bored or, in some cases, the problem was resolved by a change in the law or practice.

Each of these were lucrative, long-lasting campaigns whose premises, through duplicity or honest error, were effectively a lie.  A lie that had to be repeated with increasingly shrill conviction up to the very point where it collapsed or inverted.  

Overpopulation was worth a couple of decades of government subsidies, academic study, grants, etc.. Then there was maybe a decades breather when the opeators could no longer sustain the overpopulation panic.  And now here we are, with an inverted emerging hysteria - Collapsing Birthrates and Depopulation.  

I have a running list of these manufactured panics somewhere but can't lay my hands on it at the moment.  I think the first one that was the catalyst for creating the list was the claims in the 1970s and 1980s regarding the dangers of living near power lines, then later the dangers from microwave ovens and then in the 1990s the dangers of brain cancer from cell phones.

I asked both Google AI and Grok to:

List all the major scare campaigns over the past fifty years which dominated public discourse and then collapsed.

Grok's was the better list by far, though still woefully incomplete.  Multiple reprompts would likely fill it out.  In terms of public policy, economics, and education, virtually every major initiative over the past fifty years have all failed.  Failed completely, failed to deliver as promised, or failed to cover the costs of implementation.  Here's Groks opening list:

Here are some of the major scare campaigns over the past 50 years (roughly 1975–2025) that captured widespread public attention, dominated media and political discourse, and ultimately collapsed, fizzled out, or were proven overblown or debunked. These include environmental doomsday predictions, moral panics, health scares, and tech-related fears. I've focused on those where the hype far exceeded the reality, leading to public backlash, discrediting, or quiet abandonment. Note that "collapsed" can mean the predicted catastrophe didn't occur, the issue was mitigated without apocalypse, or evidence showed the fear was unfounded. This isn't exhaustive, as scares often overlap or evolve, but these were among the most prominent based on historical analyses.

Environmental and Doomsday Scares

Global Cooling/Ice Age Fears (1970s): Media and scientists warned of an impending ice age due to pollution and climate trends, with predictions of sharp global temperature drops by 2000. Publications like Newsweek and The New York Times amplified this, but it shifted to warming concerns and was largely forgotten as no ice age materialized. 

maciverinstitute.com +1

Mass Starvation and Famine (1970s–1980s): Predictions by figures like Paul Ehrlich forecast global famines killing hundreds of millions by the 1980s due to overpopulation, with India, China, and Africa hit hardest. Books like The Population Bomb drove the hype, but agricultural advances (e.g., Green Revolution) averted this, and the predictions were discredited. 

aei.org +1

Resource Depletion/Peak Oil (1970s–2000s): Warnings that oil, metals (e.g., copper, zinc), and other resources would run out by the 1990s–2000s, leading to societal collapse. The 1972 Limits to Growth report fueled this, but new discoveries, technology (e.g., fracking), and efficiency improvements made it collapse as a dominant fear. 

aei.org +1

Acid Rain Destroying Ecosystems (1980s): Fears that industrial pollution would wipe out forests, lakes, and wildlife across North America and Europe by the 1990s. It dominated environmental discourse, but regulations (e.g., Clean Air Act amendments) reduced emissions, and impacts were less catastrophic than predicted, leading to its fade. 

aei.org +1

Ozone Hole Catastrophe (1980s–1990s): Panic over a growing Antarctic ozone hole causing mass skin cancer and ecosystem collapse worldwide. While real, the 1987 Montreal Protocol phased out CFCs, the hole stabilized, and the scare diminished as a doomsday narrative. 

aei.org

Y2K Bug (late 1990s): Widespread fear that computer systems would fail at midnight on January 1, 2000, causing planes to crash, banks to collapse, and societal chaos. Billions were spent on fixes, but the event passed with minimal issues, turning it into a symbol of overhyped tech panic.

2012 Mayan Apocalypse (2000s–2012): Based on misinterpreted Mayan calendar, predictions of global cataclysms (e.g., solar flares, planetary alignment) dominated books, films, and media. It peaked in 2012 but collapsed immediately after December 21 passed uneventfully.

Moral Panics

Satanic Ritual Abuse (1980s–1990s): Allegations of widespread Satanic cults abusing children in daycares, schools, and rituals, fueled by books like Michelle Remembers and media frenzy. It led to wrongful convictions (e.g., McMartin preschool trial), but lack of evidence caused it to collapse as a hoax by the mid-1990s. 

en.wikipedia.org +2

Dungeons & Dragons and Fantasy Games (1980s): Claims that role-playing games like D&D promoted Satanism, suicide, and violence among youth. Groups like BADD campaigned against it, but studies debunked links, and it faded as gaming normalized. 

en.wikipedia.org +1

Video Games Causing Violence (1980s–2000s): Fears that games like Mortal Kombat or Grand Theft Auto turned kids into killers, leading to ratings systems and lawsuits. Multiple studies found no causal link, and the panic waned despite ongoing debates. 

en.wikipedia.org +2

Gangsta Rap and Hip-Hop (1990s): Music by artists like Tupac and NWA was blamed for promoting crime, violence, and moral decay in youth. It sparked congressional hearings and censorship pushes, but cultural acceptance grew, and the panic subsided. 

reddit.com

Harry Potter and Occultism (1990s–2000s): Books accused of luring kids into witchcraft and Satanism, with book burnings and bans in some schools. Religious groups drove it, but popularity exploded without evidence of harm, leading to its collapse. 

en.wikipedia.org +1

Online Predators and Internet Dangers (1990s–2000s): Panic over strangers grooming kids online, amplified by shows like To Catch a Predator. Stats showed most risks were from peers, not strangers, and the fear shifted as social media normalized. 

en.wikipedia.org +1

MySpace and Social Media (mid-2000s): Fears of cyberbullying, predators, and teen exploitation on early platforms. It dominated news, but regulations and user adaptation reduced the hype. 

en.wikipedia.org +1

QAnon Conspiracy (2010s–2020s): Claims of elite Satanic child-trafficking rings, spreading via social media and tying into politics. It peaked around 2020 elections but collapsed amid debunkings and platform bans. 

en.wikipedia.org +1

Health and Pandemic Scares

Swine Flu Vaccine (1976): U.S. government warned of a deadly pandemic like 1918 flu, vaccinating 45 million, but the outbreak was mild, and vaccine side effects (e.g., Guillain-Barré) caused the program to collapse in scandal.

AIDS as a "Gay Plague" (1980s): Early stigma portrayed HIV/AIDS as divine punishment or confined to marginalized groups, leading to discrimination. As science advanced and treatments emerged, the moral panic aspect collapsed, though the disease persisted. 

en.wikipedia.org +2

Mad Cow Disease (BSE) (1990s): Fears of a human epidemic from contaminated beef, with UK banning sales and global panic. Cases were rare (under 200 worldwide), and controls ended the scare by early 2000s.

MMR Vaccine and Autism (1990s–2000s): A fraudulent study linked vaccines to autism, sparking anti-vax movements and measles outbreaks. The paper was retracted in 2010, debunking the link and discrediting the panic. 

abcnews.go.com

Bird Flu (H5N1) (2000s): Warnings of a global pandemic killing millions, with stockpiling of antivirals. It caused limited human cases, and the fear faded without mass outbreak.

Swine Flu (H1N1) (2009): Declared a pandemic, with fears of 1918-level deaths; vaccines rushed out amid hype. It was milder than seasonal flu, leading to criticism of overreaction. 

abcnews.go.com

Ebola Outbreak (2014–2016): Media portrayed it as a global threat spreading via air travel, but containment in West Africa and few cases elsewhere caused the panic to collapse.

These examples often stemmed from media amplification, expert overstatements, or political agendas, but advancements in science, policy, or evidence led to their decline. Some, like climate change or immigration fears, persist or evolve and aren't included as "collapsed."

Dramatically incomplete, but a starting point.  As above, in terms of public policy, economics, and education, virtually every major campaign over the past fifty years has ridden a hype cycle originating in bad initial academic research, commercially and ideologically driven fear campaigns, discovery that the claimed benefits are non-existent or negative AND that the costs to achieve those non-benefits were dramatically greater than anticipated.

I'd be comfortable estimating that probably 80-90% of major panic campaigns in those fifty years are failures whose lifecycle was extended by cooption into an ideology which then, as per Magoon, lied its way into an few years of profitable hype cycle.