Tuesday, October 10, 2023

We estimate that 37.4% of all children experience a child protective services investigation by age 18 years.

From Lifetime Prevalence of Investigating Child Maltreatment Among US Children by Hyunil Kim, Christopher Wildeman, Melissa Jonson-Reid, and Brett Drake.  From the Abstract.

Objectives. To estimate the lifetime prevalence of official investigations for child maltreatment among children in the United States.

Methods. We used the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System Child Files (2003–2014) and Census data to develop synthetic cohort life tables to estimate the cumulative prevalence of reported childhood maltreatment. We extend previous work, which explored only confirmed rates of maltreatment, and we add new estimations of maltreatment by subtype, age, and ethnicity.

Results. We estimate that 37.4% of all children experience a child protective services investigation by age 18 years. Consistent with previous literature, we found a higher rate for African American children (53.0%) and the lowest rate for Asians/Pacific Islanders (10.2%).

Conclusions. Child maltreatment investigations are more common than is generally recognized when viewed across the lifespan. Building on other recent work, our data suggest a critical need for increased preventative and treatment resources in the area of child maltreatment.

This seems implausible except that I have seen similar types of implausible numbers such as 25% of young men have an arrest by the time they are 18.  One naive reason for skepticism is that the numbers simply do not comport with my own lived experience or that of anyone I know.  

On the other hand, there is an alternative explanation.  I am a well-educated, highly compensated, white collar professional with a demonstrated track record of competence and achievement in complex environments.  As are most of my peers.  Is it conceivable that our reality is materially different than that of the other 80-90% of the population.  Sure, of course.  We just don't think that way.  

I remain skeptical that more than a third of all children experience a child protective services investigation by age 18 years and that a quarter of all males have an arrest by the time they are 18.  But I also am more open to the idea that the upper 10% don't live the same as the 90% and that there might be material empirical differences that are glossed over because the experience at the margin (the 10%) is inconsistent with the average of the 90%.

No comments:

Post a Comment