Wednesday, October 26, 2022

The problem is not unsolvable. We just have to choose to do so.

On NextDoor in Atlanta and people are complaining about the slow response times of police to even quite serious events.  Actually both police and EMTs as well.  As a city, we have been infamous for decades for never staffing up to the authorized level.  Currently we have some 1,471 officers compared to the 2,000 authorized.  

A typical internet squabble about how to interpret the reality of slow response times.  Too few police?  Too few because of Defund the Police?  Bad 911 call center?  Cautious policing owing to lack of City Hall support?  Police overwhelmed because of spike in crime?  Crime spike for no known reasons?  And on and on.  Everyone breaking down into tribal positions or positions based on perception.

While complicated, there is at least a portion of this which is straight-forwardly empirical.

How many sworn police officers do we have?  Is that more or less than in the past?  Is that more or less than surrounding suburban counties?  

So what are the numbers for Atlanta?

Regardless of the terminology (Defund the Police, Diversion, etc.) how many police we have (which correlates with response times, taking into account call load) is an empirical question.  Whether we have too few or too many police officers is a different set of arguments and trade-off decisions.

APD Atlanta 2020

City of Atlanta Population 2020 - 498,715
APD officer headcount - 1,447
APD authorized officer headcount - 2,000
Officers/100,000 residents - 290

Compared to 2010

City of Atlanta Population 2020 - 420,003
APD officer headcount - 1,651
APD authorized officer headcount - 1,859
Officers/100,000 residents - 393

Compared to 2000

City of Atlanta Population 2020 - 416,474
APD officer headcount - 1,474
APD authorized officer headcount - NA
Officers/100,000 residents - 354

Compared to 1990

City of Atlanta Population 2020 - 394,017
APD officer headcount - 1,560
APD authorized officer headcount - NA
Officers/100,000 residents - 396

We are nearly 27% below our coverage per capita in 1990 as well as since 2010.  

Independent of the spike in crime since May 2020 which has plagued many major cities (but not all), we clearly have a long standing APD staffing issue.  We have never had the size of police force which has been authorized by City Council.  

Consequently, the number of officers has shrunk from 396 per 100,000 residents in 1990 (almost identical to 393/100,000 as recently as 2010) to 290 per 100,000 today.  Down 27%.  

The city's population is growing but the number of sworn police officers is shrinking.  And has been for decades.  This a long-standing governance issue which has not been addressed by City Hall.  Competitive salaries, danger, City Hall support, leading edge training, pensions, labor force tightness, effective use of technology - they all contribute to the issue of reduced policing effectiveness.  

Regardless of Defund the Police or any restrictions or changes in policing procedures since 2020, Atlanta is under-policed both in terms of authorized headcount and in terms of the past four decades.  Urban policing is challenging.  Our surrounding counties (Dekalb, Gwinnett, etc.) have both lower crime rates than Atlanta and much lower policing per 100,000 residents.  

The problems with APD coverage are longstanding and ultimately a product of trade-off decisions made by the current and past Mayors and City Councils.  It is not an unsolvable problem.  It is mostly a matter of choosing to do so.  

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