Saturday, June 25, 2022

The Preparedness Paradox

From Wikipedia.

The preparedness paradox is the proposition that if a society or individual acts effectively to mitigate a potential disaster such as a pandemic, natural disaster or other catastrophe so that it causes less harm, the avoided danger will be perceived as having been much less serious because of the limited damage actually caused. The paradox is the incorrect perception that there had been no need for careful preparation as there was little harm, although in reality the limitation of the harm was due to preparation. Several cognitive biases can consequently hamper proper preparation for future risks.

A different variation is that we usually under or overweight factors different from their actual impact.  Provision of clean water has had an order of magnitude or more impact on mortality and morbidity improvement than, for example, penicillin.  Both are very valuable but we underweight the former and overweight the latter.  

An even better example is that we tend to overweight perceived expertise and underweight demonstrated experience.

No comments:

Post a Comment