Sunday, June 26, 2022

Omitted, all the voyage of their life Is bound in shallows and in miseries.

An interesting argument.  From The Political Gender Gap is Exploding by Daniel Cox.  The subheading is Changing Patterns of Religious Identity, Education, and Marital Status May Be Responsible for the Growing Divide.

Worth a read for the many links and deep data.  One of his initial points is that among 18-29 year olds, 44% of women identify as liberal in comparison with only 25% of men.  In addition, only 15% of women today between 18 and 29 are married compared to 55% in 1972.  

Research has shown that unmarried women feel more connected than their married counterparts to other women—a phenomenon known as “linked fate”— and it can lead them to support more liberal policies. In their fascinating 2017 study, Christopher T. Stout, Kelsy Kretschmer, and Leah Ruppanner argue that “women consistently earn less money and hold less power, which fosters women’s economic dependency on men. Thus, it is within married women’s interests to support policies and politicians who protect their husbands and improve their status.” This phenomenon of “linked fate” was not found to be evident among men, so even though young men are also less likely to be married compared to older generations, their marital status may have less of an impact on their politics than for women.

[snip]

Overall, young people today are far more likely to identify as gay, lesbian, bisexual, transgender or queer than at any previous time—according to Gallup, approximately one in six members of Gen Z identify as LGBT. But it’s young women who are most responsible for the rapid growth of LGBTQ identity. And while it would not be surprising that the politics of LGBT Americans are more liberal when it comes to LGBTQ issues, recent work has shown that “LGBT Americans are distinctively liberal … in their general political predispositions, electoral choices, and attitudes on a wide range of policy matters.”

Lots of interesting points.  There has been conversation in some quarters that the leftward drift of the Democratic party is due to the feminist movement and there are aspects of that argument which would seem to have some merit.

Cox's data seems to suggest something parallel and somewhat different going on.  We have a whole cohort of young women over-invested in low value college degrees, unmoored in religious belief, unmarried and without children, exploring variant sexual identities, and with sharply declining levels of happiness or life satisfaction.  

Cox concludes

For now, it appears young women are poised to become a powerful political force, one that will shape the fortunes of both political parties for years to come.

I am not so sure that that is the case.  Were they all high status or upper two quartiles, perhaps.  And while there are some such, the large majority are in the bottom three quintiles and far more exposed to the negative consequences of their bad choices.  I can't see there being the class cohesion across the levels for this to be a movement.  

Instead, it feels like we are seeing an opening chasm between those of old values and Classical Liberal world view who continue to rise while those following the dictums and fads of the Woke ilk drift into misery and irrelevance.  I am not sure I see a disparate, low productivity group of unhappy people avaricious for the success of others but unwilling to adhere to the cultural norms that allow that success to be either a power or threat.

It is a tragedy.  A double tragedy because it is a product of their own choices.  

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