Extreme Pareto

From The Most Important COVID-19 Statistic: 43% Of U.S. Deaths Are From 0.6% Of The Population by Avik Roy.

Americans are vigorously debating the merits of continuing to lock down the U.S. economy to prevent the spread of COVID-19. A single statistic may hold the key to resolving this debate: the astounding share of deaths occurring in nursing homes and assisted living facilities.

2.1 million Americans, representing 0.62% of the U.S. population, reside in nursing homes and assisted living facilities. (Nursing homes are residences for seniors needing help with activities of daily living, such as taking a shower or getting dressed, who also require 24/7 medical supervision; assisted living facilities are designed for seniors who need help with activities of daily living, but don’t require full-time on-site medical supervision.)

According to an analysis that Gregg Girvan and I conducted for the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity, as of May 22, in the 39 states that currently report such figures, an astounding 43% of all COVID-19 deaths have taken place in nursing homes and assisted living facilities.

(Among states reporting their death totals, 42% of COVID deaths have taken place in long-term care facilities; we estimate the share as 43% for the full U.S. population, based on incorporating the demographics of the non-reporting states.)

Let that sink in: 43% of all COVID-19 deaths are taking place in facilities that house 0.62% of the U.S. population.