Tuesday, December 11, 2018

When the numbers don't match the claims

Truly amazing what can be found buried in the depths of a nearly three hundred page statistical survey. In this instance, Morning Consult National Tracking Poll #170809 sponsored by Morning Consult & Politico. It is from last fall, August 17-19, 2017. The sample size is about 2,000 respondents, so take with a material amount of salt.

Starting on page 130 you have the results for various groups in terms of their view of neo-nazis. Compared to the narrative, some of the results are pretty surprising. I am adding two of the possible options "Very Favorable" view and "Somewhat Favorable" view.

Among all registered voters, 5% have a very (3%) or somewhat (2%) favorable view of neo-nazis. Somewhat alarming until you realize 4% of the population believe lizardmen are running the world. 80% have a negative view. 15% don't know, haven't decided, haven't heard of.

OK, 80% know enough to arrive at the right answer; 5% are lizardmen believers, and 15% are an indictment of the American education enterprise.

According to the narrative you would expect more men than women to have a favorable view of neo-nazis, less educated more than the well-educated, more Conservatives than Liberals, more Trump supporters than Clinton supporters, more military than non-military, more whites than non-whites, more rural than urban, more of those whose number one priority is security than for those who rank education as number one, etc. On the first count, you would be correct. 9% of men have a positive view of neo-nazis and only 3% of women. Thank you ladies, may your civilizing influence grow.

But on the other six counts, the results are the opposite of what the narrative would suggest.
Less educated versus the more educated - In fact, 9% of post-grads have a positive view of neo-nazis versus only 5% of those with less than a college degree. Post-grads are nearly twice as likely to have a positive view of neo-nazis as do those with less than a college degree.

Conservatives versus Liberals - 11% of Liberals have a positive view of neo-nazis while only 3% of Conservatives do. Nearly four times as many Liberals have a positive view of national socialism as do Conservatives.

Trump supporters versus Clinton supporters - 8% of Clinton supporters have a favorable view of neo-nazis and only 7% of Trump supporters.

People in the military versus non-military - both are exactly the same positive view at 5%.

White versus non-whites - 11% of Hispanics have a positive view of neo-nazis and 6% of African-Americans versus only 5% of whites.

Rural versus urban - 10% of urban residents have a favorable view of neo-nazis versus only 7% of rural residents. Interestingly, the frequently disparaged conformist authoritarians of the suburbs are only 3% favorable.

Top priority Security versus top priority Education - An astonishing 16% of those committed to education also have a favorable view of neo-nazis while only 5% of those whose number one priority is security have a positive view of neo-nazis.
I am not claiming any of this is correct. I have a skeptical view of how well surveys are designed, how well they are executed and the extent to which they are capturing a representative sample of the population versus people who enjoy responding to surveys. Still, these numbers are so strikingly contra the mainstream narrative, I am surprised that they did not receive much attention.

If you accept that surveys like this provide insight into the mind of the nation, and if you are concerned about the rise of neo-nazism and interested in reversing that, then the groups we really need to tackle are Liberals, the more educated, those deeply interested in education, non-whites, urban residents, and Clinton supporters. But that is not what you hear from the mainstream media. Those upon whom we can rely to resist the rise of neo-nazism are Conservatives, Trump supporters, people in the military, people in rural areas and the suburbs, those focused on security, whites, and those with less than a college degree. That is also unheard of in the mainstream media.

If you believe in the results of public polling.

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