Saturday, June 4, 2022

Meanwhile, in the real world, there are 1,357 convictions for election fraud and 0 convictions for insurrection

If you listen to the mainstream media, the January 6th Insurrection was a real thing, a threat to democracy.  While we might all agree that it was a protest which, under suspicious circumstances, morphed into a riot, it is clear it was never an organized event with a plan or purpose.  The FBI confirmed this many months ago but it is still an article of faith on the left and in mainstream media that it was a deadly threat to our republic.  

If you listen to our mainstream media, there was no voter fraud in the November 2020 election and no question that Biden was the legitimate winner.  We should all be able to agree that there was at least some run-of-the-mill fraud as there always is in every election cycle.  It seems as if Detroit always has more votes cast than there are registered voters.  The key issue is whether the degree of voter fraud is increasing, whether there is a partisan bias to the fraud, and whether it is now at a level that might make a difference in outcomes.  Court cases and investigations have been wending their way through the judicial system, validating some acts of fraud, invalidating others, and often raising legitimate concerns.  But the mainstream media insists there was no fraud and that the vote counts were unquestionable.

I see this morning a headline which juxtaposes these two issues.

From 2020 Election: Arizona Woman Pleads Guilty to ‘Sophisticated’ Ballot Harvesting Scheme by Gary Bai.  This is one of those cases which has been well known for a good long while.  This is the mere denouement.  She pleaded guilty because of the overwhelming evidence against her.  There have been many other such cases.

What occurred to me was two questions; 1) How many people have been convicted of election fraud since 2020?, and 2) How many people have been convicted of insurrection since 2020?

I have not researched either of these issues other than noting and generally remembering headlines over the past eighteen months.  I keep an almost unconscious running total in mind, more by magnitude than actual quantification.

So, I have an impression of what the answer might be but no definite answer.  I search.

For the first question, it turns out there is one site with a reasonable approximation answer.  From the Heritage Foundation there is a useful database resource.  

The Heritage Foundation’s Election Fraud Database presents a sampling of recent proven instances of election fraud from across the country. Each and every one of the cases in this database represents an instance in which a public official, usually a prosecutor, thought it serious enough to act upon it. And each and every one ended in a finding that the individual had engaged in wrongdoing in connection with an election hoping to affect its outcome — or that the results of an election were sufficiently in question and had to be overturned. This database is not an exhaustive or comprehensive list. This database is intended to demonstrate the vulnerabilities in the election system and the many ways in which fraud is committed.

Close enough.  According to the database, there are 1,357 instances of voter fraud.  These are made up of:

Criminal Convictions - 1,167
Civil Penalties - 48
Diversion Program - 101
Judicial Finding - 24
Official Finding - 17

Not likely that any or all of these in aggregate would have been sufficient to sway the outcome but an interesting empirical data point.  Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania are the big investigations which I recall off the top of my head.  Were the fraud levels high enough in any one of those states, it might have tipped the results.  I am not sure where the cases stand but my overall sense is that in all four there was material fraud, that it might have affected the outcome but that being able to prove it in court might be too high a bar.

Now what about the second question, how many people have been convicted of insurrection.  I am on vaguer ground here.  I recall at least one case being resolved in the past few months which went to trial and the accused was found not guilty of insurrection.  I can't think of any convictions which might have been won.  What about individuals who accepted a plea deal which included a charge of insurrection.

That is harder to interpret.  People accept plea deals for things they have not done all the time.  It is a cost benefit trade-off calculation.  When you have the weight and resources in terms of time and money of the Federal government coming to bear on you with a meager bank account and dependence on a job, sometimes the plea deal is uncontroversially beneficial regardless of actual guilt or innocence.  Regardless I don't recall any such plea deals, though they might have occurred.  

But let's look at convictions.  I google them and all I get is the number of people who have been charged with insurrection.  Not the number of people who have been convicted.  It appears like some 846 have been charged with insurrection but none have been convicted.

Despite what the mainstream media wants to be true and what it wants us to believe.  At this point it appears like the real world empirical reality is 1,357 convictions of election fraud versus 0 convictions of insurrection.

Kind of a stark contrast. 

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