Evil reporting is actually a difference in perspectives and assessed probabilities

I have avoided commenting on Afghanistan simply because it was all so predictable, as are the many comments and essays and hot takes and punditry now.  We should not have been there on a permanent basis and we needed to leave.  The tragedy is not the leaving but the avoidable butchery and ignominy of the leaving.  

But listening to the reporting, there has been a steady theme which has really irritated me but which I felt the need of clarify to myself why I was irritated.  The theme was along the lines of how bad the fall to the Taliban was to the future prospects of women and children.  Almost a recapitulation of the mocking parody that conservatives make of the ideological mainstream media reporting style "World ends, women and minorities hardest hit."

In no way do I dispute the truth that the success of the Taliban bodes ill for the civil rights of women but it was only by examining my knee-jerk aversion that I could clarify why I felt the way I did.  It comes down to this.

There are at least four general scenarios of what happens next based on the nature of the Taliban, their past actions and similar state collapses to insurrectionists in recent history (Zaire, Cambodia, Vietnam, etc.)

Scenario A - The Taliban in short order (within three months) begin to execute or imprison large numbers of men who served in the prior government, men who served in the Afghan National Army, gays, non-believers in Sharia law, and/or men who are clear proponents and supporters of Age of Enlightenment values.  Women lose their civil rights but remain alive.

Scenario B - The Taliban demonstrate a reformation of their prior positions and extend basic rights to men but not to women.  

Scenario C - The Taliban in short order (within three months) begin to execute or imprison large numbers of men and women who served in the prior government, men and women who served in the Afghan National Army, LGBT, non-believers in Sharia law, and/or men and women who are clear proponents and supporters of Age of enlightenment values. 

Scenario D - The Taliban demonstrate a reformation of their prior positions and extend basic rights to men and women.  

When viewed from that perspective, it is clear to me that I fear that Scenario A is by far the most likely.  There is a remote chance that Scenario B might come into play but it seems improbable to me.  I am guessing that the leaders in Doha may be desirous of availing themselves of the modern talent of the middle class urban dwellers and therefore refrain from revenge killings.  However, the reconquest was carried out by the tribal warlords on the ground in Afghanistan who appear to me not to be particularly subordinate to or controlled by the Doha leaders.

Clarifying the scenarios helps me understand my anger at the reporters who keep emphasizing how bad the fall to the Taliban will be for women.  Of course it will be.  But if you accept the probability of Scenario A, then the cruel reporting is dismissive of what is most likely to happen.  Women lose their civil rights but men lose their lives.  This style of reporting is basically dismissing the death of men as the lesser issue.

If Scenario B is true, then it will be a tragedy for men and women but women will indeed lose more.

If scenario C is true, then it is the worst scenario of all, for both men and women.

If Scenario D is true, then it is the best scenario of all, for both men and women.  

We can pray for Scenario D and for Scenario B as the lesser of Evils.  But is seems to me that Scenario A is the most likely.