The incredible blindness of the Mandarin Class

 From Why politicians won't reach the vaccine hesitant by Harry Enten.  

He is reporting on the results of a new poll.  

Poll of the week: A new Kaiser Family Foundation poll finds that 64% of American adults have gotten or want a Covid-19 vaccine as soon as possible, 15% will wait and see and 19% will either definitely not get one or will only get one if it is required.

This data matches up with other polling that suggests that roughly 60% to 65% of American adults want a shot or have had one, 15% to 20% will wait and see and 20% don't want one.

What's the point: The number of new Americans who have received a first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine has been tumbling in recent weeks, as the people who really want a vaccine have been able to get one. The need now is to get those who are hesitating (i.e. the wait and see group) to get past their hesitation, as the 20% of vaccine resisters have been steady in their opposition.

Since Enten goes political Just So storying, it is worth recalling that Americans are roughly 41% Independent, 31% of Americans identified as Democrats, and 25% identified as Republican.  Also from Gallup.

The question is how to get it done. A lot of attention has been spent on Republicans being the problem, leading to calls for former President Donald Trump to address the group.

A look at the data reveals that the vaccine hesitant group, however, are not big Trump lovers. They're actually likely not to be Republican. Instead, many of them are people who are detached from the political process and didn't vote for either major candidate in 2020.

The most recent Kaiser poll helps illustrate that the vaccine hesitant group doesn't really lean Republican. Just 20% of the group called themselves Republican with an additional 19% being independents who leaned Republican. The clear majority (61%) were not Republicans (41% said they were Democrats or Democratic leaning independents and 20% were either pure independents or undesignated).

So of the 15% of the population who are vaccine hesitant, the plurality are Democrats.  That's distinct from the media stereotyping.

What really struck me in this whole essay was a massive blind spot on the part of Enten.  There are 35 million Americans (11% of the population) who have already had Covid-19 and therefore are immune and have no need for the vaccine.  

I know there has been a lot of smoke and mirrors pieces about whether people need the vaccine even if they have already had the virus but the base reality seems to be that the great majority of those already infected do not need to be vaccinated.  At best it is a belt and suspenders approach while ignoring the very small risks attached to vaccination.  In other words, it is very unclear whether the minuscule benefit of vaccination of the already infected outweighs the also minuscule risks of vaccination.

If you add 64% who have been vaccinated to 11% who have already had Covid (crudely assuming no overlap), we are at 75% population immunity.  How many of those firmly declining vaccination are people who have already had Covid?  

Basically, Enten seems like someone motivated by an authoritarian mindset.  Everyone has to be vaccinated regardless of their immunity and regardless of their freedom to choose.  We'll get to high levels of immunization when people trust the government and the medical establishment not to deceive them.  With his huge blindspot and omission of those already naturally immune, Enten erodes that trust.