This assumption now seems uncertain

Good News. The NYT has decided it's acceptable to discuss the topic of C19 vaccine failure. Even Dr. Fauci agrees. Perhaps, the mounting evidence is too substantive to ignore. Lets consider some details and the implications. 1/

— Donald Welsh (@DonaldWelsh16) July 25, 2021

The central claim is:

Public health positioned respiratory vaccines as the magic cure-all.  It would both save society and wash away their sins, like lockdowns, pehaps the worst policy idea ever. We were told the sacrifices of today would bring salvation tomorrow. 

It takes years to properly develop a vaccine and no, gobs of cash and public health cheerleading doesn't change this reality. Nor does the warp speed cutting of regulatory corners at the expense of safety, efficiacy and durability.   

But perhaps more disturbing was the deliberate misrepresentation of their utility. It was argued, perhaps out of ignorance, that C19 vaccines would stop the infection, disease and transmission processes dead in their tracks. This was always a fantasy. 

Respiratory vaccines, as currently conceived, can't effectively block viral infection or transmission. There are basic technical limitations. Perhaps, however, they would diminish disease severity, a worthy goal particularly for those at risk of hospitalization and death. 

This assumption now seems uncertain, as data rolls in from Britain and Israel. 4-6 months out, relative vaccine efficacy has dropped markedly and the benefit of vaccination in preventing serious illness/death appears muted. This is particularly notable in at risk groups.  

I am somewhat skeptic of his factual claim that data from Britain and Israel indicate that vaccine efficacy has dropped markedly.  I have seen other research confirming that the vaccine efficacy has held steady and is anticipated to provide long term protection.  

On the other hand, less than a week ago I posted A genuine mystery.  The number of infections from the renegade Texas Caucus of Democrats continues to rise and spread.  And all among people already supposedly vaccinated.  I have seen accounts of similar significant Covid breakthroughs among those already vaccinated.  

And in the bare few days since I posted that, I have come across three other instances where there seems to have been break-through events of Covid-19 among the already vaccinated.  

Of course vaccination does not preclude infection, it only makes it dramatically less likely.  That has not been effectively communicated.  We are a numerically big nation where everyone is highly connected.  Perhaps this is only a matter of the statistically rare event being over-emphasized since it is so unexpected because people have been effectively told that to have been vaccinated is to be immune.  

Perhaps this is an unexpected consequence of the innovative mRNA technique used to create the two most popular vaccines.  It would be interesting to see analysis of these breakthroughs by distribution of vaccine used among those already vaccinated.

I don't know what is going on.  But neither does anyone else it seems.