In and out-migration

This 2021 Emerging Real Estate Trends from the Urban Land Institute is full of interesting empirical confirmation of trends which I have assumed to be true but have not seen solid data to confirm.

This map is striking.  It measures the movement away from some cities (out-migration) and movement into other cities (in-migration) measured by one way U-haul truck premiums.

Click to enlarge.

We are accustomed to sun-belt boom cities and rust-belt decline but the pattern of in and out-migration suggests something more specific.  People are moving away from traditional high-tax, high-regulation blue states and blue cities and towards more market and growth oriented cities and states.  

I think most people have known this but interesting to see it so starkly presented.  

Since the COVID-19 crisis began, the markets that offered a good combination of economic diversity and relative housing affordability, along with less exposure to industries affected by COVID-19 (such as leisure and hospitality), outperformed.  Over the long term, COVID-19 fears will ease, but the other influencing factors will remain. Those regions of the country with the best job growth and the most attainably priced homes will prevail as destinations for homebuyers.

Despite all the talk in more intellectual forums, the data presented in the report suggests that growth will continue in smaller towns and suburbs at the expense of rural areas.  Urban cities will hold their own with no growth.

Click to enlarge.

Click to enlarge.