Friday, December 7, 2018

Is an asymmetric Duning-Kruger effect the cause of political turmoil?

I wonder if a material amount of perceived anxiety and polarization might be due to an instance of asymmetric Dunning-Kruger effect.

The 20% who are in the Mandarin class (academia, media, bureaucrats, politicians, leaders in regulated industries) are clear constituents of the Dunning-Kruger effect.
In the field of psychology, the Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people of low ability have illusory superiority and mistakenly assess their cognitive ability as greater than it is. The cognitive bias of illusory superiority comes from the inability of low-ability people to recognize their lack of ability. Without the self-awareness of metacognition, low-ability people cannot objectively evaluate their actual competence or incompetence.
They consistently overestimate their own capabilities.

Meanwhile, the 80% in the rest of the economy have the humility of reality to keep them in check. They know everyone screws up some times. They are familiar with the Peter Principle. When they make mistakes, they attempt to correct them. They may or may not be especially effective at calibrating their own performance level, but they are not blind to the need to self-correct.

The 20% see themselves as of superior capability and light-bringers even though their own performance belies that assessment. They are blind to their underperformance (the Dunning-Kruger effect).

The asymmetry arises from the fact that the 80% recognize that the 20% are victims of the Dunning-Kruger effect while the 20% do not.

I usually cast this as an issue of regular citizens rejecting their political establishment parties and politicians (US, France, UK, Germany, Sweden, Italy, Spain, Brazil, Hungary, Greece, etc.) But the asymmetric Dunning-Kruger effect might explain why the issue is so intractable, despite its prevalence.

It is easy to think that the conflict arises from the vested interests of the Mandarin class so bitterly resenting the intrusion on their sinecures and comfort. Bitterly resenting and using scorched earth tactics to protect their indefensible position of privilege gained off the backs of the citizens at large.

But perhaps it is that the Mandarin Class does not only fail to see their own under-performance but also fails to see that the average citizen has a much clearer view of that underperformance than do the Mandarin Class themselves. In other words, there is an asymmetric Dunning-Kruger effect.

A thought prompted by a morning dealing with a rash of issues affecting neighbors, died-in-the-wool enthusiastic Democrats to a person, which have made them victims of a combination of local bureaucratic incompetence, spiced with explicit corruption and dramatic incapacity to provide basic city functions. The sympathetic and competent public is angry about the self-righteous incompetence of City officials who fail to see what the public sees. And it is not a partisan issue. Hence, my hypothesis, asymmetric Dunning-Kruger effect at play.

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