Occupied home invasion rates.

Not a particularly even-handed article but the data speaks for itself. From How Gun Ownership Saves Lives by John Hinderaker.

Those on the left argue that civilian gun ownership does not really depress crime. On the right, they argue that many crimes are deterred by a good man with a gun. I am reasonably confident that the truth probably lies more towards the right but the data is not especially strong, certainly not strong enough to be convincing. It is very hard to prove a negative. Was this stick-up averted because the victim flashed a gun? Maybe. Maybe for other reasons. We know in some particular instances that the effect is indisputably real but it is hard (and expensive) to reliably quantify the effect and move beyond anecdotes.

Hinderaker is reporting data that gives a crude estimation based on cross-country comparisons.

Last week the Telegraph reported: “Half of burglaries on occupied homes as thieves grow bolder.”

Half of burglaries in Britain now take place while householders are inside their homes, as thieves become emboldened by police inaction.

Figures show 58 percent of burglaries happen at occupied properties, as campaigners said criminals no longer feared being caught in the act.

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Analysis of the most recent Office for National Statistics crime figures shows the proportion of burglaries targeting properties when someone is at home has soared in recent years. The Crime Survey for England and Wales found such incidents made up 44 percent of raids in 2004-2005, but have since shot up to 58 percent in 2016-2017.

How do the numbers compare in the United States? It is surprisingly hard to find up to date data; this 2010 report by the Department of Justice doesn’t seem to have been superseded. The DOJ report found that the household was occupied in 28 percent of residential burglaries. In 26 percent of burglaries where someone was present, one or more individuals were physically harmed by the burglar or burglars.

Cross-country comparisons are hard to control but this is quite interesting. 58% of home invasions occur in homes which are occupied compared to only 28% of homes in the United States.

Indeed the home invasion rate of occupied homes in the US is less than half that in the UK. How many rapes, injuries, etc. arise from the higher occupied home invasion rate in the UK? No data on that but it almost certainly has to be greater than zero.

So no good answers but an interesting piece in a larger puzzle.