What both common sense and expert consensus assure us to be true very often isn’t

From The Coming Oil Boom by Chrystia Freeland. She discusses the emerging realization that there will be a sea change in the global energy market in the coming decade. This realization has been emerging over the past twelve months (from what I have been reading), but still hasn't reached the mainstream as far as I can tell. Ms. Freeland's closing paragraph is a reminder of an enduring truth independent of the details of her report.

A final conclusion to draw from the next oil revolution is a little more existential. This is yet another reminder that what both common sense and expert consensus assure us to be true very often isn’t. It was obvious that efficient markets worked and financial deregulation would stimulate economic growth, until the financial crisis and the subsequent international economic recession. It was equally apparent that we were running out of oil — until we weren’t.

The only exception that I would take is that, as with almost all major issues, there were in fact those that have been preaching in the wilderness for years and decades that those ancient task masters Supply and Demand would, left to their own devices, solve the energy problem - maybe not in a way that we liked or in a way that we expected, but solved it would be. Just because they weren't listened to doesn't mean that they weren't prophesying the reality that is now upon us.

Common sense and experts have value in the right context but we have to understand the context. If we don't have that context, then their value often is negligible. The science is never settled and no one ever has all the answers. Comprehending the trade-offs between short term tactical efficiency and long term effectiveness is endlessly complicated and frustrating. Perhaps our best approach is to be wise, be modest, be prepared.