Consider a turkey that is fed every day. Every single feeding will firm up the bird’s belief that it is the general rule of life to be fed every day by friendly members of the human race “looking out for its best interests,” as a politician would say. On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey. It will incur a revision of belief.
Monday, July 30, 2012
It will incur a revision of belief
From The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. A great explication about the differences between risk and uncertainty as well as an epistemological discussion about what is knowable and how we know it.
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