Pundit Matthew Yglesias has doozy of a tweet out.
His proposed argument is that "The problems with transit have nothing to do with crime. Public transit is one of the safest ways to get around - its just too slow."
Profoundly wrong on many levels and wrong because he has to make the argument he is making in order to support policies he wants.
Public transit is completely tangled up with crime (and the perception of crime). As well as with cost in taxes and cost in fares. As well as with cleanliness. As well as with convenience of access. As well as with duration of journey from start to finish. As well as speed of travel.
I have traveled public transit in the US in New York City, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Chicago, San Francisco, LA and probably a handful of others I am not thinking of at the moment. I have traveled public transit internationally in Stockholm, Sweden; London, England; Paris, France; Sydney and Melbourn, Australia; Tokyo, Japan; Hong Kong; Singapore; and probably others not top of mind.
My children used Atlanta's MARTA rail to school for years.
I am reasonably familiar with the trade-offs here and elsewhere. I would argue that everywhere the trade-offs are between cost in time (how long does it take to get there) cost in money (how much money), and perceived risk of crime (tightly linked with appearance and cleanliness).
In widely distributed America with cities with poor crime control and poor public environment maintenance and where everyone almost necessarily has a car (sunk cost and therefore public transit commutes are competing against marginal cost of the car), the equation, 96.5% of the time comes out favoring personal vehicles. In fact, 92% of households own at least one car. 60% own two or more. In Europe, only 79% of households own a car.
This equation which yields 95% vehicle commute goes against the grain of the Abundance agenda, and the urban densifiers, and the central planners, and the anti-car enthusiasts, and the pundits.
In Europe and other locations of great density and different levels of individual prosperity and cost structures, the answer comes out to 40-45% using public transit. An outcome beloved of central planners, and the anti-car enthusiasts, and the pundits.
While crime is usually low in most public transit systems the perception or risk varies widely. And often deservedly so. As I said, my children rode MARTA for years, in part because it was a useful experience in independence. As it was. But the downside was elevated risk. Despite the school have a deep coordination with APD and MARTA, despite the school kids convoying with one another, and despite MARTA having higher transit police presence on the cars and trains at school commute times.
There were real incidents. The one most vivid in my recollection is the time when Son Number 2 was on the train. A dubious, hoodied potential gangbanger got on the train, trousers hanging low. Not aggressive to anyone, just suspicious. A couple of stops on, gangbanger hitches his pants up and in doing so his handguns falls to the floor. The students gasp and step back. Gangbanger glances around fast for cops.
I may be making this up in my memory, or possibly exaggerating it, but my recollection of the resolution to the scene was when Son Number 2 caught the eye of the gangbanger and said, soto voce, "I hate when that happens." Laughter is a social solvent.
Contra Yglesias, crime, and the perception of crime is a significant factor in Americans' decisions whether to take their car or the train/bus. That and how long will it take to get there (usually longer by public transit than by car) and much will it cost (varies by city but the marginal cost of an already owned car is low.)
Yglesias is wrong.
Chris Anade, who walks and travels all around the world, has a good response as someone on the same side of the political aisle as Yglesias.
I especially like this point.
I agree completely much of a nation's productivity and many, if not most, of its public policies, are dependent on a high-trust society with a shared culture and confidence in personal safety. Two positions entirely at odds with the the political left in the US.
Shared culture and public safety are incompatible with the values of the Left but without shared culture and public safety, public transit in the US just can't take off. Especially with long commute times (more to do with inadequate routing systems than speed per se) and poor cost competitiveness.
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