Data Talks

Total amount wagered on sports in the US...
2024: $148.7 billion
2023: $121.1 billion
2022: $93.7 billion
2021: $57.5 billion
2020: $21.5 billion
2019: $13.1 billion
2018: $6.6 billion https://t.co/qHWsZ4rK5X

— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) November 6, 2025

 

Miner's Houses, Canmore, 1944 by Henry George Glyde (England/Canada, 1906-1998)

Click to enlarge.

Mass shootings are rare in Australia - By the numbers

I am reading this morning of the tragic apparent Islamist terrorist attack in Australia at Bondi Beach in Sydney, targeting a group of people celebrating the start of Hanukkah.  I lived in Sydney for five and a half years and have many friends there, including Jewish friends and friends who live near Bondi Beach.  I have reached out to them in the prayerful hope that none have been directly affected.

At this point, there appeared to have been 17 murdered by the terrorists.  

When we moved to Australia in 1997, there had just the prior year been a horrific attack at Port Arthur in Tasmania in which 35 people were killed.  In the wake of that attack, Australia passed a comprehensive package of laws substantially reducing/eliminating private gun ownership 

I am seeing numerous headlines or accounts referring to how rare mass murders of this sort are in Australia.  For example, from The New York Times:

Mass shootings are rare in Australia, a country with strict gun laws and one of the lowest gun-related death rates among wealthy nations.

Which of course prompted the question in my mind, How often are there mass killings of this sort in Australia and how does that compare to the US?  I know of Port Arthur and now of Bondi Beach.  Were there others before Port Arthur that I didn't know about or some since I left in 2002 that I somehow overlooked?  

Turning to Grok:

In what years since 1985 has Australia had a mass shooting with 15 deaths or more?

Searching the web

35 results

Since 1985, Australia has had two mass shootings with 15 or more deaths:

1996: The Port Arthur massacre, where Martin Bryant killed 35 people and wounded 23 others at a tourist site in Tasmania. This remains the deadliest mass shooting in modern Australian history and led to major national gun law reforms, including bans on semi-automatic rifles and shotguns, plus a large-scale buyback program.

2025: A shooting attack on December 14 at Bondi Beach in Sydney, targeting a Hanukkah event, resulted in at least 15–16 deaths (reports vary slightly between 15 and 16 victims, excluding or including perpetrators) and dozens injured. Multiple sources describe this as the deadliest mass shooting in Australia since 1996.

No other incidents since 1985 meet the threshold of 15 or more deaths. Prior to 1996, Australia had several mass shootings (often defined as 4–5 or more fatalities), but none since then reached this scale until the 2025 event. Studies confirm no comparable mass shootings occurred in the decades following the 1996 reforms until now.

Grok seems to confirm what I already believed I knew.  Two mass murder incidents (greater than 15 murdered victims) since 1985.  In 1985 Australia had about 16 million people and in 2025 it has a population of roughly 28 million, a near doubling in forty years, much of it driven by immigration.  

Very crudely then, they have two mass murder events over 40 years per an average of 22 million (44/2) people.  One attack every 20 years.  Alternatively, one attack per 11 million over forty years.  

The perpetrator of the Port Author attack had a history of mental illness.  At this point (still early) it appears that the Bondi Beach attack was an Islamist terror attack.  

What about the US?

Grok:

In what years since 1985 has the US had a mass shooting with 15 deaths or more?

Searching the web

36 results

Browsing web page

2 results

The United States has experienced mass shootings with 15 or more fatalities (excluding the perpetrator's death, if applicable) in the following years since 1985, based on widely referenced lists of deadliest incidents (such as those compiled from Wikipedia's curated rankings of high-fatality shootings and cross-referenced databases):

1991: Luby's cafeteria shooting in Killeen, Texas (23 deaths)

2007: Virginia Tech shooting in Blacksburg, Virginia (32 deaths)

2009: Fort Hood shooting in Fort Hood, Texas (14 deaths, though sometimes listed with adjustments; included here per some compilations, but borderline)

2012: Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting in Newtown, Connecticut (27 deaths, including 26 victims plus perpetrator suicide)

2015: San Bernardino attack in San Bernardino, California (16 deaths)

2016: Pulse nightclub shooting in Orlando, Florida (49 deaths)

2017: Las Vegas Strip shooting in Paradise, Nevada (60 deaths)

2018: Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School shooting in Parkland, Florida (17 deaths)

2019: El Paso Walmart shooting in El Paso, Texas (23 deaths)

2022: Robb Elementary School shooting in Uvalde, Texas (21 deaths)

2023: Lewiston shootings in Lewiston, Maine (18 deaths)

No such incidents (15+ deaths) occurred from 1985–1990, 1992–2006, 2008, 2010–2011, 2013–2014, 2020–2021, or 2024–2025 (as of December 14, 2025). Note that definitions of "mass shooting" vary across sources (e.g., public vs. all incidents, minimum victims killed vs. shot), but high-fatality events like these are consistently tracked in deadliest lists due to their scale. Sources exclude gang-related or domestic-only violence in some stricter public mass shooting criteria, but the above align with broad consensus on indiscriminate or public rampages reaching this threshold.

38 web pages

Again, this accords with my recollections.  I had forgotten about Luby's and had overlooked Lewiston.  

Eleven mass murder incidents (greater than 15 murdered victims) since 1985.  In 1985 the US had about 240 million people and in 2025 it has a population of roughly 340 million a 40% increase in forty years, much of it driven by immigration.  

Very crudely then, the US has eleven mass murder events over forty years per (580/2) 290 million people.  One attack every 3.5 years.  Alternatively, on a population basis, one attack per 26 million over forty years.  

Australia has 2.4 times as many mass murder attacks per million people over 40 years compared to the US, despite its virtual prohibition of private guns.  

In Australia, one attack was by a perpetrator with mental health history and one by Islamist terrorists.

How about the US Grok?

And of those eleven shootings, how many were linked in some way to Islam?

Searching the web

63 results

Of the eleven mass shootings listed (with 15 or more fatalities since 1985), three were linked to Islam through the perpetrators' radicalization, motivations, or affiliations with Islamist extremism:

2009 Fort Hood shooting (13 victims killed, perpetrator survived initially): Perpetrated by Nidal Hasan, a Muslim U.S. Army major who shouted "Allahu Akbar" during the attack, communicated with radical cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, and expressed jihadist views opposing U.S. military actions in Muslim countries. It is widely classified as an act of Islamist-inspired terrorism.

2015 San Bernardino attack (14 victims killed): Carried out by Syed Rizwan Farook and Tashfeen Malik, a Muslim couple radicalized by Islamist ideology. Malik pledged allegiance to ISIS on social media during the attack, and the FBI classified it as an act of terrorism inspired by a perverted interpretation of Islam.

2016 Pulse nightclub shooting (49 victims killed): Perpetrated by Omar Mateen, a Muslim who pledged allegiance to ISIS during 911 calls amid the attack. The FBI and authorities classified it as ISIS-inspired Islamist terrorism, though investigations found no direct operational ties to the group.

The remaining eight incidents (1991 Luby's, 2007 Virginia Tech, 2012 Sandy Hook, 2017 Las Vegas, 2018 Parkland, 2019 El Paso, 2022 Uvalde, and 2023 Lewiston) had no documented links to Islam or Islamist motivations; perpetrators' backgrounds and motives were unrelated (e.g., personal grievances, mental health issues, or other ideologies). Note that "linked in some way" here focuses on perpetrator radicalization or ideological motivation tied to Islam, per consensus from official investigations and reliable sources. Definitions of terrorism and motivation can vary slightly across databases, but these three are consistently identified as Islamist-related among high-fatality U.S. mass shootings.

63 web pages

Again, matches my memory though I note small numerical discrepancies between its first and second answers, almost certainly definitional in nature.  

Three out of eleven, clearly Islamist, 27%

Now what about those with a documented history of mental illness?

And of the remaining eight shootings how many involved known or previously documented mental health issues.

Searching the web

99 results

Of the remaining eight mass shootings with 15+ fatalities (1991 Luby's, 2007 Virginia Tech, 2012 Sandy Hook, 2017 Las Vegas, 2018 Parkland, 2019 El Paso, 2022 Uvalde, and 2023 Lewiston), seven [NB the actual list count is 6 out of 8] involved perpetrators with known or previously documented mental health issues, based on official investigations, court records, family statements, and reliable reporting:

2007 Virginia Tech (Seung-Hui Cho): Extensive documented history, including diagnoses of selective mutism/anxiety in childhood, major depression, involuntary commitment in 2005, and ongoing mental health evaluations/treatment gaps noted in the official review panel report.

2012 Sandy Hook (Adam Lanza): Long-term developmental and mental health issues (including sensory processing disorder, anxiety, obsessive-compulsive tendencies, and possible undiagnosed autism spectrum traits); received special education and psychiatric evaluations, though treatment lapsed in later years per the Connecticut Office of the Child Advocate report.

2018 Parkland (Nikolas Cruz): Extensive record of behavioral/mental health concerns from childhood, including ADHD, depression, autism evaluations, multiple therapies, special education placements, and threat assessments; received intermittent treatment but gaps persisted.

2019 El Paso (Patrick Crusius): Defense filings and court records cite severe lifelong neurological/mental disabilities (later specified as schizoaffective disorder with psychotic features); treated with antipsychotics post-arrest and described as in a psychotic state.

2022 Uvalde (Salvador Ramos): Reports indicate struggles with isolation, bullying, family dysfunction, and behavioral issues; while no formal diagnosis or treatment history was officially documented pre-incident, experts and investigations noted profiles consistent with untreated mental health crises common in similar cases.

2023 Lewiston (Robert Card): Well-documented acute deterioration, including auditory hallucinations, paranoia, two-week psychiatric hospitalization in 2023, traumatic brain injury from military service, and family/military alerts about his crisis.

The exceptions are:

1991 Luby's (George Hennard): Described as a troubled loner with paranoia and anger issues; no evidence of formal diagnoses, treatment, or documented mental health evaluations.

2017 Las Vegas (Stephen Paddock): No confirmed diagnosis or treatment history; some speculation (e.g., family mentions of possible paranoia or doctor's unconfirmed bipolar suspicion), but official investigations found no documented mental illness.

"Known or previously documented" here refers to formal evaluations, diagnoses, treatments, hospitalizations, or official alerts (e.g., family/military reports leading to intervention). While mental health factors are complex and not causative alone, these details come from investigations, court proceedings, and expert analyses. Note that stigma and access gaps often limit full documentation in such cases.

In the US, 27% of such attacks are by Islamists, 55% are by those with a documented history of mental illness and 18% are by individuals without documentation of their condition but with suspected mental health issues.  

Mass murder attacks like this are rare, even rarer in small countries like Australia.  So rare that even with a forty-year window, it is not correct to make comparisons because of the smallness of the set size.  

But it is worth noting that mass lethal shootings, despite the NYT claim, are rarer in the US on a population basis than in Australia and happen more often on population per decade basis in Australia.  The NYT times claim is not tenable.  

Australia's results are especially notable given how distinctly different are their gun laws from those of the US.

History

On the ancient shores of the Red Sea, buried in desert sands for over 4,500 years, archaeologists uncovered something no one thought could survive — a bundle of fragile papyri now known as The Diary of Merer. These scrolls are the oldest written papyri ever found, and they tell… pic.twitter.com/fsOqsTs9Qf

— Archaeo - Histories (@archeohistories) November 7, 2025

 

An Insight

A massive, gaping intellectual blind spot I have noticed is social-class politics and hostility *within* the Western world and Western populations. For example, it's obvious Western elites see the Western masses as a subhuman race, but I rarely see anyone dig deeper into this. https://t.co/GrrrATdCKH

— Marko Jukic (@mmjukic) November 6, 2025

 

I see wonderful things

“Yeah so basically my ideology is raising taxes on people working here to pay for BMWs for people with anxiety”

pic.twitter.com/dFL1lWf0Gw

— Adam Wren (@G0ADM) November 7, 2025

 

Offbeat Humor

New: Police Respond to Suspicious Activity Call — Man Riding Bull Through Walmart Parking Lot

Officers were dispatched after a caller reported a “male with a cowboy hat riding a whitish bull up and down the parking lot” outside a Walmart.

When officers arrived, they located… pic.twitter.com/aiNB2idDGS

— The Facts Dude 🤙🏽 (@Thefactsdude) November 7, 2025

 

Data Talks

I've so far documented 196 ghost stations where NOAA fabricates temperatures for data recording stations that no longer exist. There are many more yet to document. Find them at #NOAAghoststation pic.twitter.com/Pn6IRmu8xB

— John Shewchuk (@_ClimateCraze) November 6, 2025

 

The Witchery of the Moonbeams by Edward Henry Potthast

The Witchery of the Moonbeams by Edward Henry Potthast (America, 1857-1927)

Click to enlarge.

Their primary commitment is to a belletristic, literarist, romantic promotion of elite cultural sensibilities

The New Yorker has drifted far from the James Thurber and E.B. White days.  

Bombshell: Oliver Sacks (a humane man & a fine essayist) made up many of the details in his famous case studies, deluding neuroscientists, psychologists, & general readers for decades. The man who mistook his wife for a hat? The autistic twins who generated multi-digit prime…

— Steven Pinker (@sapinker) December 12, 2025

In the past decade or so, I can think of at least three of their writers who have gotten into hot water for plagiarism, misquoting or loose ways with the truth.  Fine essayists all but of little help in navigating an increasingly chaotic epistemic world.  Jonah Lehrer, Malcom Gladwell and now . . . Oliver Sacks.

They were soft pablum entertainment but of little help in the pursuit of truth.  Well, that's not strictly true.  I have commented in other posts that Gladwell has been useful in cultivating skepticism.  He writes so seductively that you have to always maintain an alert mind to what camel is being slipped into the tent without your noticing.  

Malcolm Gladwell I have always enjoyed.  A fine essayist and at least a catalyst for thinking through why some of his claims might not be accurate.  Lehrer I enjoyed but only discovered him just before he fell.  

Oliver Sacks was in a different category.  He has been held out as a superb essayist and fine clinician dealing in interesting areas of the human brain/psychology.  And yet I never have taken to him at all, either in the magazine or with his books.  Over the years I have acquired at least three (An Anthropologist on Mars, Oaxaca Journal, and The Island of the Colorblind) and maybe one or two others (I think I have The Man Who Mistook His Wife for a Hat floating around somewhere.)  Haven't read more than an essay in any one of them.  

I buy them, sample them and then set them aside.  Plenty of books don't grab me at first but later, at the right moment, I engage with and enjoy.  Reading is a serendipitous activity and sometimes you just have to wait for the moment.  And sometimes, the moment never comes.

But all of them, Gladwell, Lehrer, Sacks, now seen to be purveyors of cognitive pollution of the first order.

Pinker in his series of tweets:

Why did The New Yorker, which perpetuates the myth that they employ an army of meticulous fact-checkers,  pollute our understanding of mind and brain by publishing these fabrications for decades?

Because their primary commitment is to a belletristic, literarist, romantic promotion of elite cultural sensibilities over the tough-minded analyses of philistine scientists and technologists, their rival elite (carrying on C. P. Snow's war of prestige between "the two cultures). A common denominator behind Sacks's fabrications was that ineffable, refined intuition can surmount cerebral analysis, which is limited and cramped. It's a theme that runs through some of their other blunders, such as a fatuous diatribe against a dictionary based on a modern understanding of language, by their dance critic Joan Acocella, an ignoramus on this topic, mirroring a similar polemic by the critic Dwight MacDonald in the magazine 50 years before.  

Sounds about right.  A cultivated sensibility that is more about class inclusion than understanding the world.

History

Benjamin Franklin understood something important about socialism. pic.twitter.com/UKk5EWYrRG

— James Lindsay, anti-Communist (@ConceptualJames) November 7, 2025

 

An Insight

This is a genuinely incredible story: China found in U.S. archives an energy source that could power its entire future for 20,000 years - and they just made it work.

I'm not exaggerating. In the 1960s the U.S. - specifically Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee - invented…

— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) November 6, 2025

 

I see wonderful things

Tеrror supporters igniting fires and causing chaos at the Israeli Philharmonic in Paris.

The orchestra responded by playing Hatikvah.💅 pic.twitter.com/8SrkEnrXhh

— dahlia kurtz ✡︎ דליה קורץ (@DahliaKurtz) November 7, 2025

 

Air condition and productivity.

From A tale of two American cities by Ed West.  The subheading is How Austin is winning the battle for talent. 

For all that, few inventors have had such an obvious impact as Willis Carrier, who in 1902 came up with the first air conditioning unit. At the time of his breakthrough, GDP per capita in the southern states was 40 per cent lower than in the north: the old free states had long been dominant economically and accounted for nine-tenths of American industry at the time that South Carolina seceded from the Union, dooming that romantic but wrong cause from the start.

Air conditioning changed all that, and as a result American life has become far more orientated towards the South. 

Today they produce way more patents than all other western countries combined

From A tale of two American cities by Ed West.  The subheading is How Austin is winning the battle for talent. 

In his gigantic History of the American People, Paul Johnson noted that ‘from 1790 to 1811 the US Patent Office reported an annual average of seventy-seven registrations. By the 1830s it had jumped to 544 annually, by the 1840s to 6,480 and in the 1850s over 28,000 every year.’ Between 1865 and 1900 the US Patent Office issued half a million registrations, and the country produced an extraordinary number of world-changing inventions, from electric light bulbs to record players and telephones. Today they produce way more patents than all other western countries combined, reflecting their love of experimentation, and this extends beyond science.

Offbeat Humor

I miss Boris. pic.twitter.com/ou0GAAkzRL

— Yoav Kaufman 🇮🇱 (@yoavkaufman) November 7, 2025

 

Data Talks

It's being reported that more people have died in a single week in Sudan than in 2 years in Gaza but no one seems to really care.

— Corey Walker (@CoreyWriting) November 6, 2025

 

Monks in a monastery courtyard, 1856 by Franz Ludwig Catel

Monks in a monastery courtyard, 1856 by Franz Ludwig Catel (Germany, 1778-1856)

Click to enlarge.

History

I think this is exactly right and it reminds me of an apocryphal story about Camus, who was born in Algeria to French parents. After he received the Nobel Prize, he reportedly told a journalist who had asked him why he hadn't commented on the war and taken a stance against French… https://t.co/K7mERYinhM

— Philippe Lemoine (@phl43) November 7, 2025

 

An Insight

I’m collecting memes that mock socialism

If you have any good ones, please share them pic.twitter.com/JweU5mZIFm

— Mike Lee (@BasedMikeLee) November 7, 2025

 

I see wonderful things

Next level focus and skills
pic.twitter.com/8l6T0nVbTG

— Science girl (@sciencegirl) November 7, 2025

 

Offbeat Humor

Joe Feldman: “Why do we still hear claims that equitable grading lowers standards, demotivates students, or even undermines public schools?”

San Francisco: https://t.co/mdqxNPMZRu pic.twitter.com/h0KaKezjdK

— Neetu Arnold (@neetu_arnold) November 6, 2025

 

Data Talks

China may be the most ruthless lender in recent financial history.

In a recent article, Horn, Reinhart, and Trebesch analyzed the trajectory of external credit granted by China to developing countries, showing how an unprecedented expansion cycle in recent years (Silk Road,… pic.twitter.com/pOeLjBM33e

— Könings (@EdwardKonings) November 6, 2025

 

The Observatory, 1978 by Andrew Wyeth

The Observatory, 1978 by Andrew Wyeth (America, 1917 - 2009)

Click to enlarge.

Directions versus Fronts

I am really beginning to enjoy using Grok on a more routine basis for quick answers to minor but persistent questions.  Things where I would really like an answer but am not willing to invest the time to do the research.

In this instance, in the Ukraine war, I mostly see reports of battles in different directions rather than battles at a front.  Why this terminology?  I have a relatively long list of suppositions but have not invested the research time.  

It occurs to me this morning to just ask Grok.

In Ukraine, why do they describe it as a direction rather than as a front?

Grok does its thing.

Searching the web

15 results

Searching on X

25 results

The result?

In the context of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainian military and official reporting—particularly from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine—often refers to operational zones as "directions" (напрямки in Ukrainian) rather than "fronts" (фронти). This terminology is not unique to Ukraine but is rooted in Soviet-era military doctrine, which continues to influence how the Ukrainian armed forces conceptualize and communicate large-scale operations. Here's a breakdown of why this distinction exists and its implications:

Historical and Doctrinal Roots

Soviet Legacy: During the Cold War and World War II, Soviet military strategy divided the theater of operations into "strategic directions" (стратегические направления). These were broad geographic axes or sectors (e.g., the Western Strategic Direction encompassing Europe) where forces were grouped for planning, logistics, and maneuver. The term "front" was reserved for more specific, tactical-level groupings of armies (e.g., the 1st Ukrainian Front during WWII, which was a subordinate command within a larger direction). This hierarchical approach allowed for flexibility in a vast theater without implying a static, linear battlefield.

Post-Soviet Adoption: Ukraine, as a successor state to the USSR, inherited this framework. Russian military doctrine uses similar terms (направления for directions), but Ukraine has leaned into it more consistently in public communications to emphasize strategic depth and adaptability. For instance, early in the 2022 invasion, Ukraine described Russian advances along the "Kyiv direction," "Kharkiv direction," or "Donetsk direction" to highlight multiple axes of attack rather than isolated battles.

Tactical and Psychological Reasons in the Current War

Avoiding Static Connotations: "Front" evokes a fixed, linear line of confrontation (as in World War I trenches), which doesn't fully capture the fluid, dispersed nature of the Russo-Ukrainian war. The frontline spans over 1,000 km, with intense fighting in pockets like Bakhmut or Pokrovsk, but much of it is "blurry" due to drones, artillery duels, and small-unit maneuvers rather than continuous contact. Using "direction" underscores broader operational zones where Ukraine can shift reserves, conduct counterstrikes, or disrupt logistics without admitting to a rigid defensive posture.

Information Warfare and Morale: Ukraine's daily briefings focus on repelling attacks or liberating settlements in specific directions, rarely acknowledging territorial losses outright (e.g., "Russian assaults repelled in the Lyman direction"). This phrasing maintains morale at home and signals resilience to allies, avoiding the defeatist tone of a "collapsing front." It's a subtle form of narrative control, especially as Russian forces have made incremental gains in eastern directions like Pokrovsk since mid-2024.

Operational Flexibility: Directions allow for multi-axis planning. For example, Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive targeted the "Zaporizhzhia direction" (south) while holding the "Bakhmut direction" (east). This mirrors how NATO or U.S. doctrine might use "theaters" or "sectors," but Ukraine's phrasing aligns with its hybrid Soviet-Western training.

Examples from the War

Eastern Theater: Often called the "Donetsk direction" or "Pokrovsk direction," focusing on advances toward key logistics hubs like Pokrovsk, rather than a singular "eastern front."

Southern Theater: The "Zaporizhzhia direction" or "Kherson direction," where Ukraine reclaimed territory in 2022 without framing it as a monolithic front.

Northern Incursion: Ukraine's 2024 cross-border operation into Russia's Kursk region was described as a new "northern direction," creating a salient to divert Russian forces and shorten Ukraine's defensive lines by ~150 km.

In contrast, Western media and analysts frequently use "front" for simplicity (e.g., "eastern front" in BBC or CFR reports), as it translates the conflict's scale into a more familiar World War II-style narrative. Russia, meanwhile, downplays the war entirely as a "special military operation," avoiding both terms to minimize domestic scrutiny. This linguistic choice isn't just semantic—it's a tool for sustaining a protracted defense against a numerically superior foe. If the war evolves into more conventional breakthroughs, "front" might gain prominence, but for now, "direction" better reflects Ukraine's strategy of attrition across dispersed zones.

Interesting background and context.

Free money doesn't change propensity towards crime.

From At least five interesting things: Debunking the Debunkers edition (#73) by Noah Smith.

One more nail in the Universal Basic Income coffin.  

In other words, giving people basic income instead of traditional welfare doesn’t seem to make them less criminal, and doesn’t seem to make them safer from crime. (If anything, it made people slightly more criminal, though the result wasn’t statistically significant, so “not noticeably different from zero” is the safest takeaway here.)

In other words, basic income has taken yet another “L” here. We’d like to tell ourselves that poverty is the root of crime, but in the short term, that’s not the case — giving people more money doesn’t make them less criminal, at least in Finland. The root causes of crime are either longer-term economic factors, or deeper sociological factors.

Cash benefits still give out cash, which makes people less poor. But they don’t have a lot of the side benefits many of us had hoped for. A lot of what happens in society can’t easily be reduced to how much money people make.

Smith has been a UBI enthusiast but also acknowledges that the accumulating evidence does not support the initial hopes for the policy.

I had high hopes for the idea that just giving people cash would fix a lot of society’s problems. I still think a system of unconditional cash benefits would be simpler, fairer, and easier to navigate than many of our current welfare programs, and I still think it’s worth giving poor people money in order to make them less poor. But over the past few years, a bunch of new evidence has shown that the costs of cash giveaways are higher (in terms of incentivizing people to stop working), and the social benefits are much narrower, than boosters like myself had believed. Kelsey Piper had a great writeup of this disappointing evidence a few months ago, and I wrote up some thoughts in one of my earlier roundups.

Now we have another piece of evidence showing that cash benefits solve fewer problems than we’d like it to solve. Aaltonen, Kaila, and Nix (2025) study a recent basic income experiment in Finland.

From what I can see, almost all the UBI studies come out with two conclusions.  1) Giving people more money increases their income under most circumstances, and 2) Giving people more money does change any of their negative social, criminal, health, or education habits.  Occasionally there is a study which finds something marginally positive but from my passive monitoring, it seems that the solid majority do not.

It feels like we are edging closer and closer to the conclusion that UBI is not a viable policy.  It does not change the trajectory of people's life outcomes for the better and usually at significant cost and also often with moral hazards.  Necessarily most of these studies are relatively small with dozens up to a few thousand participants and usually for months or at most 2-3 years.  

There is a valid argument that anything temporary simply cannot change long term behaviors and decision-making.  But there is very little evidence to support making the plunge into a longterm, large-scale UBI.  And a lot of evidence against it.

The corollary to all these studies though is interesting.  The UBI studies repeatedly and rather consistently seem to indicate that life outcomes are the product of individual behaviors and decisions rather than income.  Access to basic income does not change criminality.  

History

Ireland was never Romanized. It wasn’t worth it, no cities, no commodities, no strategic reason. Ireland never developed the Roman civic structure. No bishops tied to cities, no urban congregations.

When Christianity arrived later it was rural and monastic based.

Private… pic.twitter.com/IMeSCXfkWc

— LindyMan (@PaulSkallas) November 6, 2025

 

An Insight

Bless you. That's been my thought for years. All Dick and I needed was reading comprehension. A simple thing to ask. https://t.co/NUt2yAbGbM

— Charles Murray (@charlesmurray) November 7, 2025

 

I sse wonderful things

Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni “I believe in a Western civilization founded on Greek philosophy, Roman law, and Christian values.”

I LOVE THIS ❤️ pic.twitter.com/UgzdiJt0JZ

— MAGA Voice (@MAGAVoice) November 6, 2025

 

Offbeat Humor

We got lady Version of this meme pic.twitter.com/K0w8Dfni1c

— Abhishek Singh (@IAbhi_s) November 6, 2025

 

Data Talks

This is going to blow your mind

There are approximately 3,280,000 households in Los Angeles County

“Nearly a million households in Los Angeles County” are on EBT

USDA and county data show 31% of LA County is on Food Stamps

That’s 1 in every 3 houses YOU’RE paying for pic.twitter.com/mCCkDUO51O

— Wall Street Apes (@WallStreetApes) November 3, 2025

 

Memory of a Wooded Island in the Baltic Sea, c. 1835, by Carl Gustav Carus

Memory of a Wooded Island in the Baltic Sea, c. 1835, by Carl Gustav Carus (Germany, 1789-1869)

Click to enlarge.

Louis Sullivan by Timothy Sandefur

Louis Sullivan

by Timothy Sandefur

“The fairy delicacy, ceaselessly at work.” 

The Autobiography of an Idea, Louis H. Sullivan

I say there’s something living in this common earth,

Latent, not free before to manifest in flesh,

Only to reach toward heaven, not sky;

I say at last let us let it be true.

Now come immense and peaceful migrations;

Thundering engines of steel and steam;

Instant electric signals;

A new kind of light.

Let ancient fathers remain at their rest;

In this new world, even the stars are new.

Seeking with all of their youthful pride,

Born in the breadth of the Mississippi River,

The redwoods that tower above the Pacific,

The thousand-mile horizons over the prairies,

Unpent mankind begins to bend back

All the massed superstitions.

Can will command nature? I say will is nature.

As the tree in the seed, so are we liberated.

A bridge leaps the gap, knit from steel tendrils;

Stones once defiant yield at last,

And summon new angels who,

Stretching their wings,

Form a canopy like boughs shielding the garden

Where a gentler force unfurls:

Vitality groping toward its fate,

Enfolding its frame in a million faceted intricate blossoms;

A lace of vines and fractal structures, glittering effulgences;

The asymmetric, incalculable, wild marvel of ensoulment.

I say new bones, new life.  Yes,

Emerging like Eve from Adam’s rib of iron,

From starbursts and diamonds and oak leaves,

Spinning atoms’ forces and the

Feminine swells that bring new creation;

Gravity now is balanced on lightness;

Great masses expertly poised upon pinpoints;

Arches throwing their compass feet forward,

Toward a tomorrow certain to be.

Let me show you the golden doorway.

Step through,

Step through.

History

In 1886, Josephine Cochrane, a wealthy Illinois socialite, changed domestic life forever, not out of invention for invention’s sake, but because her servants kept chipping her fine china.

Cochrane was not a trained engineer, but she was determined. After sketching out a rough… pic.twitter.com/ojMDvSi52L

— Dr. M.F. Khan (@Dr_TheHistories) November 7, 2025

 

An Insight

https://t.co/GU633rh6LH pic.twitter.com/zRtqBRSVjB

— wanye (@xwanyex) November 3, 2025

 

I see wonderful things

Rock removal is crucial to prevent rock and landslides on roads and mountain paths. pic.twitter.com/Mmmp9pRkW2

— Massimo (@Rainmaker1973) November 7, 2025

 

Offbeat Humor

pic.twitter.com/plLGtU8HaN

— Lisa Rose (@OrneryHousewife) November 7, 2025

 

Data Talks

The map of optimum temperatures

[🗾 Alex Egoshin] pic.twitter.com/obanAnDxMp

— Massimo (@Rainmaker1973) November 4, 2025

 

Evening in Adelboden, 1913 by Waldemar Fink

Evening in Adelboden, 1913 by Waldemar Fink (Switzerland, 1883-1948)

Click to enlarge.

History

Before Europe had a printing press, about three quarters of the world’s books were in Chinese.

the oldest securely dated printed book we have, the Diamond Sutra from 868, ends with a note that it was made for universal free distribution.

it was printed in China and later found… pic.twitter.com/8bmpEVlE4o

— Archaeology & Art (@archaeologyart) November 7, 2025

 

An Insight

california's medi-cal budget crisis would end overnight if the state stopped funding free healthcare for illegal immigrants. instead, leftists in the state have proposed a wealth tax that would essentially abolish the concept of private property. https://t.co/0j8VM4QReE pic.twitter.com/yQWgEpkPXX

— Mike Solana (@micsolana) November 4, 2025

 

I see wonderful things

The Vredefort Crater in South Africa —

Earth’s largest verified impact crater
300 km wide and 2 billion years old!
Formed by a city-sized asteroid that reshaped the land.

pic.twitter.com/T1pLOI9tHD

— Science girl (@sciencegirl) November 7, 2025

 

Offbeat Humor

We may never know his true motives. https://t.co/LDXbGooVh8

— Gad Saad (@GadSaad) November 6, 2025

 

Data Talks

Striking how Obamacare is not much of a program for families with children, and it is mostly a program for singles or couples 50 and above. https://t.co/2e41hcSV5B

— Brian Blase (@brian_blase) November 4, 2025

 

Riverbank in Autumn, 1938 by Maxfield Parrish

Riverbank in Autumn, 1938 by Maxfield Parrish (America, 1870-1966)

Click to enlarge.

It is precisely true that the Ancient Greek philosophers are always with us, bidden or unbidden.

I am warily engaging with various AI platforms that are storming about the epistemic stage.  I have had some fantastic experiences with some platforms and have had some experiences which support being cautious.  They are tools that need to be understood in order to be used well but they are tools which are evolving so quickly that it is not possible to work with the same version long enough to know how to use them optimally well.  By the time you begin to get a feel for it, you realize you are eight versions behind.  

Heraclitus is still with us.

You cannot step twice into the same river.

Whether flux is eternal or not remains to be seen but it certainly shapes our present.

One of our current challenges is that increasingly open and accessible digital domains are a breeding ground for sloppiness and cognitive pollution.  People dash things off without consideration or precision.  If it is done artfully, it is picked up and circulated.  The market place of ideas is more open and inviting than it ever has been but it is inadvertently the source of much cognitive pollution.  

This morning I am reading in Quotulatiousness an excerpt from Theodore Dalrymple, “Controlling Thought”, New English Review, 2020-06-09.

Too great attention to the use of language is a distraction from the essential and easily becomes mere pedantry; but to pay too little is to risk being deceived or manipulated by those who use language wrongly. Words, Aristotle said, should not bear more precision than possible; but neither should they bear less than possible.

Words have connotations as well as denotations, and one way of insinuating an untruth into someone’s mind is to disconnect the two, so that the denotation and the connotation are at variance and even opposite. An excellent example of this is in the use of the word austerity as applied to certain government economic policies. Frequently one reads, for example, that the difficulties of countries such as Britain and France in the matter of responding to the Covid-19 epidemic were caused by previous government austerity, that is to say, failure to spend more. But irrespective of whether, had the governments spent more (and France already devotes a greater proportion of its GDP to healthcare than the great majority of countries at the same economic level), the epidemic would have been more easily mastered, their policies in restricting their expenditure cannot be called austerity, because they still spent more than their income: as, in fact, they had done almost continually for forty years.

I am in agreement with Dalrymple's point.  Words have agreed meaning and accidental or deliberate departure from those received meanings are always a red flag suggesting either deception or error.

But did Aristotle really say:

Words, Aristotle said, should not bear more precision than possible; but neither should they bear less than possible.

The idea behind it, yes.  That precision must be fit for circumstance.  I'm not attempting pedantry.  I am genuinely curious but I also don't want to spend a lot of time digging in to it.  This feels like a loose and modern rendering of an Aristotelean idea rather than an actual quote.  And I am alert to the irony of querying the precision of a quote in an article about linguistic precision and the Aristotelean idea of precision within the context of suitability (how much precision can the topic bear.)

Dalrymple is a learned man and an excellent writer.  Because he does not use quotes, I suspect he is simply paraphrasing in a fit for purpose fashion.  But I would love the literal interpretation to be true, for Aristotle to have said that "Words should not bear more precision than possible; but neither should they bear less than possible."

How about Grok.  Two seconds to craft the prompt.

Did Aristotle said, words should not bear more precision than possible; but neither should they bear less than possible.

Grok, in two seconds, blew past my typo (said/say) and gave me the answer to my low-investment query.

No, Aristotle did not say (or write) the exact sentence “words should not bear more precision than possible; but neither should they bear less than possible.”

That modern-sounding formulation is a paraphrase that circulates widely on the internet (often attributed to Aristotle without a source), but it does not appear in any of his surviving works.

The closest genuine Aristotelian ideas are found in two places:

Nicomachean Ethics, Book I, chapter 7 (1098a26–33) He discusses the principle that we should not demand more precision in a subject than the subject-matter allows (μὴ μᾶλλον ἀκριβολογεῖσθαι τοῦ πράγματος ἐπιδεχομένου). This is the famous “Aristotelian principle of precision”: ethics and politics, for example, admit only rough accuracy, whereas mathematics admits very high precision.

Posterior Analytics and Metaphysics He repeatedly insists that different sciences have different standards of exactness, and one must match the degree of precision to the nature of the object being studied.

So the spirit of the viral quote is Aristotelian — seek exactly the degree of precision that the subject permits, neither too much nor too little — but the neat symmetrical wording (“not more … but neither less”) is a modern summary, not a direct quotation.

A more accurate rendering of Aristotle’s actual position would be something like:

“It is the mark of an educated person to look for precision in each class of things just so far as the nature of the subject admits.” (Nicomachean Ethics 1094b23–25, tr. Ross)

or

“We must not expect the same degree of exactness in all departments of knowledge, but only in each according to the subject-matter.” 

The elegant modern version you asked about is therefore a useful mnemonic, but not an authentic Aristotle quotation.

Everything in the response comports with my prior knowledge and my general sense.  I could spend an hour double checking everything but for my purpose that looks like a sufficiently accurate answer.  The only improvement I could make is right at the end.  "A more accurate rendering" sounds like Grok is paraphrasing Aristotle more accurately.  But what Grok offers are actual quotes.  The distinction is important and useful.  "A more accurate rendering" could be changed to "Aristotles' actual words were . . ."

In checking whether they were actual quotations, I realize that the first quote is a fragment.  The whole sentence is:

It is the mark of an educated man to look for precision in each class of things just so far as the nature of the subject admits; it is evidently equally foolish to accept probable reasoning from a mathematician and to demand from a rhetorician scientific proofs.

Which neatly brings us back to the sloppiness of the open accessible marketplace of ideas via the internet and social media.  We cannot easily match the speaker to the subject and the corresponding degree of precision.  Is this a know-nothing speaking badly about a subject that admits low accuracy or is it a real expert speaking well about a topic which affords great accuracy?  Or some variation?  

We typically don't know and even can't know.  That is how you end up with a lot of seemingly credible slop.  I.e. - Cognitive Pollution.  

These are wonderful times offset by the anxiety of continuing flux.

And this has to be one of the most accidentally Ancient-Greek-philosopher posts in this blog for a while.

History

Sir Henry Wyatt was imprisoned in the Tower of London in 1483 and left to starve—but his life was saved by a cat who crept into his cell each night, bringing him pigeons to eat and sleeping on his chest to keep him warm. pic.twitter.com/5hTahEgjMJ

— Boze the Library Owl 😴🧙‍♀️ (@SketchesbyBoze) November 6, 2025

 

An Insight

Excellent point from @tylercowen "Instead, what we are seeing is that America, at the drop of a hat, can turn on a dime and reallocate capital on an unparalleled scale, to our great and enduring benefit. Unless you were around to witness World War II, none of us have seen…

— John Bailey (@John_Bailey) November 4, 2025

 

I see wonderful things

Photograph of a dragonfly covered in morning dew. pic.twitter.com/auhUgBJWUX

— The Figen (@TheFigen_) November 6, 2025

 

Offbeat Humor

She’s flying full speed, dress trailing, gun blazing!

I don’t even care what this event is. This is the most American thing I’ve seen all week. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/b3iWsJKw2G

— Desiree (@DesireeAmerica4) November 6, 2025

 

Data Talks

In 1987, a 40-year longitudinal study followed children from middle-class families and measured their early personalities and temperaments. Those who were emotionally volatile, quick to anger, and low in emotional stability were more likely to experience downward mobility.

By… pic.twitter.com/XyRVGTtnvM

— Rob Henderson (@robkhenderson) November 3, 2025

 

Window overlooking the port, Honfleur by Henri Le Sidaner

Window overlooking the port, Honfleur by Henri Le Sidaner (Frnace, 1862-1939)

Click to enlarge.

On his books by Hilaire Belloc

On his books

by Hilaire Belloc 

When I am dead, I hope it may be said: 

"His sins were scarlet, but his books were read.”

History

Jamestown, the first permanent English settlement in the Americas, USA, c.1614

Artist/designer: Sidney E. King (1906–2002)—a National Park Service (NPS) muralist known for research‑based reconstructions of early Virginia. pic.twitter.com/n4d9mdAFdz

— Vintage Maps (@vintagemapstore) November 4, 2025

 

An Insight

You can see how far Mons Porphyrites was from the Nile. It’s closer to the Red Sea.

It’s deep in the wilderness. Yet the Roman state built a vast complex here, all to service the project of porphyry.

Imagine being stationed here. You might as well be on a Martian colony. And… pic.twitter.com/ScUiH0jMRR

— The Mind Scourge (@TheMindScourge) November 3, 2025

 

I see wonderful things

Turkey borders 7 countries with 7 different alphabets. pic.twitter.com/Nt90LVoz6H

— Xavi Ruiz (@xruiztru) November 6, 2025

 

Offbeat Humor

Everyone to the right is a “Nazi” to them pic.twitter.com/7idqtFuPXC

— Marie Isabella (@MarieIsabellaB) November 7, 2025

 

Data Talks

Map by @maroni_editor shows the tripoints of Europe.
That’s where the borders of three sovereign states meet. pic.twitter.com/U3EWo6JSBt

— Simon Kuestenmacher (@simongerman600) November 3, 2025

 

Train, 1998 by Bruno Vekemans

Train, 1998 by Bruno Vekemans (Belgian, 1952 - )

Click to enlarge.

Cacoethes Scribendi By Oliver Wendell Holmes Sr.

Cacoethes Scribendi

By Oliver Wendell Holmes Sr.

If all the trees in all the woods were men;

And each and every blade of grass a pen;

If every leaf on every shrub and tree

Turned to a sheet of foolscap; every sea

Were changed to ink, and all earth's living tribes

Had nothing else to do but act as scribes,

And for ten thousand ages, day and night,

The human race should write, and write, and write,

Till all the pens and paper were used up,

And the huge inkstand was an empty cup,

Still would the scribblers clustered round its brink

Call for more pens, more paper, and more ink.

History

This probably isn't what you imagine when someone says '1950s council offices', but that is what this is. Bristol City Hall, by the great civic architect Vincent Harris. The style is loosely Neo-Georgian, but the sweeping curve gives it some Baroque vitality, and the arched and… pic.twitter.com/rj4vMVg6Jj

— Samuel Hughes (@SCP_Hughes) November 4, 2025

 

An Insight

A very insightful comment from Helen Pluckrose. https://t.co/gyf0mbzdpj pic.twitter.com/DseGUCxOHD

— Steve Stewart-Williams (@SteveStuWill) November 3, 2025

 

I see wonderful things

Scientists discovered the world’s largest spiderweb, covering 106 m² in a sulfur cave on the Albania-Greece border.

Over 111,000 spiders from two normally rival species live together in a unique, self-sustaining ecosystem—a first of its kind.pic.twitter.com/LPLKVElSNv

— Massimo (@Rainmaker1973) November 6, 2025

 

Offbeat Humor

Credit: @instapundit pic.twitter.com/7jATeTjwxM

— That Guy You Like 🇺🇸🇪🇸 (@craigtherandall) November 7, 2025

 

Data Talks

“If women are behind on a metric, it’s recorded as inequality. If men are behind, it’s recorded as parity. You read that correctly: The index is explicitly designed so that men cannot be seen as disadvantaged, no matter how far behind they fall.”

[Link below.] pic.twitter.com/Y4p2YO9OUg

— Steve Stewart-Williams (@SteveStuWill) November 3, 2025

 

The Sea And The Sun, 1926 by Max Ernst

The Sea And The Sun, 1926 by Max Ernst (Germany, 1891-1976)

Click to enlarge.

Hamlet by Stanley J. Sharpless

Hamlet 

by Stanley J. Sharpless

Prince Hamlet thought Uncle a traitor

For having it off with his Mater.

Revenge Dad or not?

That’s the gist of the plot,

And he did – nine soliloquies later.

History

You can see how far Mons Porphyrites was from the Nile. It’s closer to the Red Sea.

It’s deep in the wilderness. Yet the Roman state built a vast complex here, all to service the project of porphyry.

Imagine being stationed here. You might as well be on a Martian colony. And… pic.twitter.com/ScUiH0jMRR

— The Mind Scourge (@TheMindScourge) November 3, 2025

 

An Insight

“…the majority never read anything twice. The sure mark of an unliterary man is that he considers ‘I’ve read it already’ to be a conclusive argument against reading a work.”

- C.S. Lewis, And Experiment in Criticism https://t.co/IOdFoxruIB

— jacque boatman (@jacqueboatman) November 3, 2025

 

I see wonderful things

In the California mountains, a train disappears….then reappears above itself.

A century and a half old, still working every day.
They call it the Tehachapi Loop.

Built in 1876, carved into granite by 3,000 Chinese laborers using black powder and shovels. pic.twitter.com/X5aj2M7tdK

— MoundLore (@MoundLore) November 3, 2025

 

Offbeat Humor

This is an insane chart https://t.co/uJOeANejCD pic.twitter.com/HX0ngYcL0p

— Matteo Marinelli (@MrnllMtt) November 3, 2025

 

Data Talks

I was involved in government (California) when this switch happened. I vouch for this thread’s explanation.

It was a hippie mistake, a notion that took hold. No one spoke up for asylums. It’s past time to reinvent them. https://t.co/0UTarvz3FA

— Stewart Brand (@stewartbrand) November 3, 2025

 

The Calm Sea, 1869 by Gustave Courbet

The Calm Sea, 1869  by Gustave Courbet (France, 1819-1877)

Click to enlarge.

Confession By Gelett Burgess

Confession

By Gelett Burgess

Ah, Yes! I Wrote the "Purple Cow" —

  I'm Sorry, now, I Wrote it!

  But I can Tell you Anyhow,

  I'll Kill you if you Quote it!

History

A noticeable share of the surviving papyri and cuneiform apprenticeship contracts from the ancient world concern the apprenticeship of slaves.

Now, why would slaveowners pay for their slaves to be apprenticed in various trades? self-interest.
Since owners gained income from the… pic.twitter.com/ssNKq4NgzJ

— LiorLefineder (@lefineder) November 1, 2025

 

An Insight

Isnt this a wonderful one?
Clemenceau's full quote on Émile Zola that so resonates today and on X:
"Men have been found to resist the most powerful monarchs and to refuse to bow down before them, but few indeed have been found to resist the crowd, to stand up alone before…

— S Sebag Montefiore (@simonmontefiore) November 3, 2025

 

I see wonderful things

A woman experienced being captured when she came to photograph a school of sardines. pic.twitter.com/WzBjt4xhuT

— The Figen (@TheFigen_) November 3, 2025

 

Offbeat Humor

Unbelievable

One of the security passwords for the Louvre was...

"Louvre"

You can't make it up https://t.co/bQU5FYyp7d

— François Valentin (@Valen10Francois) November 3, 2025

 

Data Talks

fracking quietly it made the US into the world's largest oil producer in a very short time

at least some people stopped talking about it because we'd be a lot poorer and more beholden to Strange Countries if we didn't develop the tech https://t.co/cRSJZvzXV9 pic.twitter.com/lqT3y8Kn2Z

— Simon Sarris (@simonsarris) November 3, 2025